Better EV Stock: Nio vs. Rivian

Core Insights - Nio and Rivian, once leading electric vehicle stocks, have seen significant declines in their stock prices due to lower vehicle deliveries and substantial losses [2][14] - Nio is experiencing a recovery in its business with increasing deliveries and expanding vehicle margins, while Rivian is facing challenges with production and supply chain issues [2][8] Nio Overview - Nio's vehicle deliveries have grown significantly from 20,565 in 2019 to an expected 221,970 in 2024, with a peak growth rate of 113% in 2020 [4] - The company has faced challenges in 2022 and 2023, including supply chain issues and competition, leading to a decline in vehicle margins from 20.1% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023 [3][4] - Nio's recent product launches, including the lower-end Onvo L60 and the Firefly hatchback, are expected to drive future growth [6][4] - Analysts project Nio's revenue to increase by 38% in 2025 and 32% in 2026, despite remaining unprofitable [7] Rivian Overview - Rivian's vehicle deliveries increased from 920 in 2021 to 50,122 in 2023, but growth is expected to stall in 2024 due to production shutdowns for upgrades [10] - The company has struggled with negative gross margins, which improved from -845.5% in 2021 to -24.1% in 2024, but profitability is still not expected soon [10][12] - Rivian anticipates delivering between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles in 2025, with the launch of the R2 SUV planned for 2026 [11] - Analysts expect Rivian's revenue growth to be modest at 8% in 2025, with a potential increase of 40% in 2026 [13] Investment Comparison - Nio is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its higher vehicle deliveries, clearer future plans, and lower valuations compared to Rivian [14] - Rivian's future performance is uncertain, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, making it a riskier investment at this time [14]