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Tesla Stock Is Plunging, but 1 Wall Street Analyst Thinks It Will Soar 855% in the Next 5 Years
TSLATesla(TSLA) The Motley Fool·2025-03-28 08:45

Core Insights - Tesla is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer, but investor focus is shifting towards its full self-driving software, Cybercab robotaxi, and Optimus robot, which are seen as potential trillion-dollar platforms in the future [1] - Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management predicts Tesla's stock could reach 2,600by2029,drivenbyproductslikeFSDandCybercab[2][3]Despitethisoptimisticoutlook,Teslasstockhasdropped432,600 by 2029, driven by products like FSD and Cybercab [2][3] - Despite this optimistic outlook, Tesla's stock has dropped 43% from its recent high due to weaknesses in its core EV business [3] EV Sales Performance - Tesla delivered a record 1.8 million cars in 2023, marking a 38% year-over-year increase, but deliveries shrank by 1% in 2024 [4] - In early 2024, Tesla's EV sales in Europe fell by 43%, and by 66% in Australia, with flat sales expected in China [5] - Competitors like BYD and Great Wall Motors are selling base-model EVs for under 15,000, making it difficult for Tesla to compete [6] Market Dynamics - Consumer hesitance towards Tesla may be influenced by Elon Musk's political involvement, leading to increased dealership attacks and declining resale values [7] - Tesla's revenue in 2022 was 97.6billion,with7997.6 billion, with 79% from EV sales, but projections suggest EV sales will only account for 26% of revenue by 2029, with autonomous ride-hailing becoming the majority [8] Future Projections - Ark estimates that Tesla's Cybercab could generate 756 billion in annual revenue by 2029, contributing to a total revenue of 1.2trillion[11]ThesuccessofTeslasautonomousridehailingserviceiscontingentontheapprovalofFSDforunsuperviseduse,whichhasnotyetbeengranted[10]FinancialMetricsTeslasearningspershare(EPS)fellby531.2 trillion [11] - The success of Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing service is contingent on the approval of FSD for unsupervised use, which has not yet been granted [10] Financial Metrics - Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) fell by 53% in 2024 to 2.04, with a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 134, significantly above the S&P 500's 22.9 [13] - The stock would need to drop by 82% to align with the S&P 500, and further declines in EPS are expected if EV deliveries continue to decrease [14] Investment Considerations - While Tesla stock may appear attractive if Ark's forecasts are accurate, the high risk of further downside suggests caution for investors [15][16]