Air China(601111) 新浪财经·2025-03-28 12:28Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to improve its financial performance in 2024, with a projected reduction in net loss to 240 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in loss by 810 million yuan year-on-year [1][6]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with passenger revenue contributing 151.8 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year [3]. - The passenger kilometer yield decreased by 12.4% to 0.534 yuan, with domestic routes yielding 0.537 yuan (down 9.7%), international routes at 0.513 yuan (down 22.6%), and regional routes at 0.649 yuan (down 16.7%) [3]. - The company recorded operating costs of approximately 158.2 billion yuan in 2024, also up 18% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in unit fuel costs by 6% [3]. Operational Metrics - The aircraft utilization rate recovered to 92%, with a daily utilization of 8.9 hours, and the passenger load factor improved to approximately 80%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For domestic routes, the available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 5.4% with a load factor of 81.5%, while international routes saw a 100.5% increase in ASK with a load factor of 76.3% [2]. Fleet Expansion Plans - The company plans to increase its Boeing and Airbus passenger fleet by an average of 3% over the next three years, with a projected fleet size of 926 aircraft by the end of 2024 [2]. - The wide-body aircraft proportion is expected to decrease, with projections indicating a drop to 13.6% by 2027 from 14.7% at the end of 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The company’s selling expense ratio is projected at 4.2%, while the management expense ratio is at 3.3%, reflecting slight changes year-on-year [4]. - Financial expenses decreased to 6.77 billion yuan, primarily due to lower interest expenses and reduced foreign exchange losses [4]. Investment Income - The company reported net investment income of 2.9 billion yuan in 2024, with China National Aviation contributing approximately 2.5 billion yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a sustained supply constraint with steady demand growth, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and high profit elasticity [7]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 4.7 billion yuan, 10.1 billion yuan, and 15.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an upgraded rating to "buy" [7].