双汇发展(000895)：业绩符合预期 吨利创新高

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 59.715 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.64%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.26% from the previous year [1] - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 15.603 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.185 billion yuan, up 63.27% year-on-year [1] Meat Products Segment - The revenue from the meat products business was 24.79 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 6.2% year-on-year, with sales volume down 6.1% due to weak terminal demand [1] - The profit per ton for meat products reached 4,469 yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue from meat products was 5.59 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, with the decline significantly narrowing due to a low base effect from Q4 2023 [1] - For 2025, the company plans to implement a "two adjustments and one control" operational strategy, focusing on sales organization reform and market specialization [1] Slaughtering and Breeding Business - The revenue from the slaughtering business was 30.33 billion yuan in 2024, down 2.1% year-on-year, with external transaction revenue at 26.93 billion yuan, up 1.1% [2] - The company slaughtered approximately 10.29 million pigs in 2024, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, with fresh meat sales down 4.4% [2] - In Q4 2024, the slaughtering business achieved revenue of 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, driven by lower prices and increased slaughter volume [2] - The company aims to enhance the breeding and poultry sectors in 2025 to improve operational quality and profitability [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share for the year, in addition to a mid-term dividend of 0.66 yuan per share, resulting in an annual dividend payout ratio of approximately 98% [2] Profit Forecast - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 62 billion, 64.1 billion, and 66 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 3.9%, 3.4%, and 2.9% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.21 billion, 5.49 billion, and 5.72 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 5.4%, and 4.3% [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated to be 18x, 17x, and 16x, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]