关键通胀数据显示价格上涨 10年期美债收益率跌破4.3%

Group 1 - Market risk aversion has increased, leading to a significant drop in key U.S. Treasury yields, indicating investor concerns about economic growth rather than inflation [1] - As of the market close on March 28, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 3.89%, the 5-year yield dropped by 9 basis points to 3.98%, and the 10-year yield saw a substantial decline of 11 basis points to 4.27%, marking the largest single-day drop since January 15 [1] - The core personal consumption expenditures price index for February rose by 0.4%, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.8%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth in February was 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, while personal income increased by 0.8%, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% [3] - Concerns about tariffs and other factors are contributing to reduced consumer spending, leading to fears of stagflation, characterized by rising inflation and slowing economic growth [3][4] - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a 63.2% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times or more by 2025, up from 51.1% the previous day [4] Group 3 - The bond market is reacting to concerns over tariffs, particularly those related to the automotive sector, which have intensified worries about stagflation [5] - In the European bond market, German bond yields fell, while Italian bond yields saw slight increases, indicating mixed reactions across different countries [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the week, with a total of $144 billion in bonds to be issued on March 31, including $76 billion in 13-week and $68 billion in 26-week short-term bonds [6]