华峰化学(002064)：氨纶、己二酸承压 2024年业绩下滑10.4%

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 26.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, with earnings per share of 0.45 yuan, which is in line with market expectations [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.56 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan [1] Industry Trends - The global spandex production capacity is expected to increase to 1.75 million tons by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%, primarily driven by the Chinese market [2] - China's spandex production capacity will reach 1.355 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, although some new installations have been delayed or reduced [2] - Domestic spandex production was 1.045 million tons, up 11.3% year-on-year, while exports increased by 13.2% to 69,600 tons, and imports decreased by 4.8% to 47,900 tons [2] - The average price of spandex is projected to decline throughout 2024, with an annual average of 26,400 yuan per ton, down 17.1% year-on-year [2] Market Dynamics - The domestic adipic acid production capacity is expected to reach 4.1 million tons in 2024, a 9.6% increase from the previous year, with production rising by 10.8% to 2.56 million tons [2] - The consumption of adipic acid in downstream applications is projected to grow by 9.7% to 1.92 million tons, but the market remains oversupplied, leading to continued pressure on profitability [2] - The industry is facing a significant decline in gross profit margins, with the projected gross profit per ton for 2024 at -1,303 yuan, compared to -222 yuan in 2023 [2] Business Outlook - The polyurethane raw material market is stable, providing the company with a steady cash flow, with the polyurethane footwear market size reaching 5.61 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [3] - The current market share of polyurethane raw materials in China's footwear industry is below 10%, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [3] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration as smaller enterprises face profitability challenges, benefiting larger companies like Huafeng [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the pressure on spandex and adipic acid prices, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 10% to 3.15 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2026 at 3.74 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025 and 11 times for 2026 [4] - The target price is maintained at 9.0 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 11% from the current stock price, based on a 14 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 and 12 times for 2026 [4]