证券分析师 S (HT14) | 2025 年 10 月 19 日 相关研究 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 太自粉大厂开启全球化? 行业底部修复机遇 --《化工周报 25/10/13-25/10/17》 本期投资后示 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 当前时点的化工宏观判断。原油：供应方面，预期非 OPEC 引领原油产量提升 OPEC+存 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 19 日 钛白粉大厂开启全球化布局，重视 行业底部修复机遇 看好 ——《化工周报 25/10/13-25/10/17》 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的 ...

证券之星消息，10月16日化学纤维板块较上一交易日下跌1.45%，南京化纤领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3916.23，上涨0.1%。深证成指报收于13086.41，下跌0.25%。化学纤维板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603406 | 天富龙 | 50.50 | 3.38% | 8.34万 | | 4.16亿 | | 002064 | 华峰化学 | 8.76 | 0.46% | 24.51万 | | 2.15亿 | | 603225 | 新凤鸣 | 15.30 | 0.13% | 11.14万 | | 1.72亿 | | 300876 | 蒙泰高新 | 27.20 | -0.22% | 2.26万 | 6136.72万 | | | 603382 | 海阳科技 | 34.97 | -0.60% | 1.23万 | 4288.29万 | | | 000782 | 恒申新材 | 5.83 | -0.68% | 28.34万 | | 1.69亿 | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector showed a weekly performance ranking of 8th with a gain of 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.85 percentage points [4][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week of October 9-10, 2025, was a gain of 1.99%, ranking 8th among sectors [22]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (6.26%), titanium dioxide (4.23%), and oil and petrochemical trade (4.23%) [23]. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the adjustment of energy structures [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to enter a high prosperity cycle, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion in Southeast Asia [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with significant opportunities for domestic substitution [6][8]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to domestic production [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output and the demand for fertilizers increases due to rising grain prices [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - Q3 is traditionally a low season for downstream chemical products, with prices of chemical products retreating from high levels. However, high demand in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals supports performance [3][4] - The supply side of the chemical sector is nearing the end of capital expenditure, and policies aimed at reducing excess capacity are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity. Demand is anticipated to trend upward in the long term due to stabilizing oil prices and easing liquidity [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chain is expected to see steady growth in fertilizer demand due to increasing cultivated areas and higher penetration of genetically modified crops. Key companies to watch include Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy for nitrogen fertilizers, Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group for phosphate fertilizers, and Yara International for potash fertilizers [4] Textile and Apparel Chain - The textile and apparel chain has maintained high growth rates, with supply-side production peaks having passed. Companies like Luxi Chemical and Tongkun Co. are highlighted for their potential in this sector [4] Export-Related Chemicals - With overall overseas inventory at historical lows and expectations of interest rate cuts, demand for export-related chemical products is expected to rise. Key companies include Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. in the fluorochemical sector, and Wanhua Chemical in the MDI segment [4] New Materials - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials. Companies like Yake Technology and Ruijie New Materials are noted for their growth potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The document lists a series of unconditional approvals for business concentration cases from September 29 to October 8, 2025, indicating ongoing consolidation activities in various sectors [1]. Group 1: Business Concentration Cases - Case 1: China International Capital Corporation Private Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd. and Schaeffler Investment (China) Co., Ltd. established a joint venture on September 29, 2025 [1]. - Case 2: Eastman Chemical International GmbH and Huafeng Chemical Co., Ltd. established a joint venture on September 29, 2025 [1]. - Case 3: Agricultural Bank of China Capital Management Co., Ltd. and Shandong New Kinetic Energy Capital Management Co., Ltd., among others, established a joint venture on September 30, 2025 [1]. - Case 4: Bank of Communications Guoxin Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Industrial Park Zhongxin Energy Development Co., Ltd. established a partnership on September 30, 2025 [1]. - Case 5: Qingdao Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. and Qingdao Municipal Space Development Group Co., Ltd. merged on September 30, 2025 [1]. - Case 6: Fujian Wancheng Biotechnology Group Co., Ltd. acquired Nanjing Wanyou Business Management Co., Ltd. on September 30, 2025 [1]. - Case 7: Beijing Ideal Automotive Co., Ltd. and Xinwanda Power Technology Co., Ltd. established a joint venture on September 30, 2025 [1].

Market Overview - The chemical fiber sector experienced a decline of 1.72% on October 13, with Baogudi leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.5, down 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47, down 0.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the chemical fiber sector included: - Zhongfu Shenying (688295) with a closing price of 28.58, up 3.33% [1] - Hengtian Hailong (000677) at 5.17, up 3.19% [1] - Hengshen New Materials (000782) at 6.16, up 3.18% [1] - Major decliners included: - Baogudi (300905) at 37.83, down 5.07% [2] - Leixiu Chemical (002064) at 9.17, down 4.97% [2] - Xin Fengming (603225) at 16.16, down 4.21% [2] Capital Flow - The chemical fiber sector saw a net outflow of 63.995 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 124 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Xin Fengming (603225) with a net outflow of 29.5311 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tianfulong (603406) had a net inflow of 22.1812 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Wanhui High-tech (600063) recorded a net inflow of 18.8015 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant pullback on October 13, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 3.19% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Tongkun Co., Ltd., fell over 7%, while several others like Xin Fengming and Huafeng Chemical dropped more than 6%, negatively impacting the overall sector performance [1][2] - The chemical ETF has seen a capital inflow of over 80 million yuan in the last three trading days, indicating renewed interest from investors [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low in terms of profitability and valuation, with a profit margin of 4.14% for the chemical raw materials and products sector as of August 2025 [3] - The price-to-book ratio for the chemical ETF (516020) is at 2.4 times, which is in the 41.57 percentile of the last decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector has seen a decline for three consecutive quarters, confirming a supply turning point and indicating a potential improvement in the industry landscape [4] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors with significant profit elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament, which are expected to benefit from supply-side improvements [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [4] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huafeng Chemical experienced a decline of 5.08% on October 13, with a stock price of 9.16 yuan per share and a total market capitalization of 45.457 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - Huafeng Chemical Co., Ltd. is located in Ruian Economic Development Zone, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on December 15, 1999, and listed on August 23, 2006 [1] - The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of polyurethane products such as spandex fiber, polyurethane raw materials, and adipic acid [1] - Revenue composition is as follows: basic chemical products 36.84%, chemical fibers 34.73%, new chemical materials 22.81%, others 5.06%, and logistics services 0.56% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, Hongde Fund has one fund heavily invested in Huafeng Chemical, specifically Hongde Hongfu Mixed A (001357), which held 301,000 shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, accounting for 3.56% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating loss for today is approximately 147,500 yuan [2] Fund Manager Information - The fund manager of Hongde Hongfu Mixed A (001357) is Ji Yu, who has been in the position for 3 years and 106 days [3] - The total asset size of the fund is 363 million yuan, with the best return during the tenure being 15.27% and the worst return being 5.25% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3900-point mark, indicating a bullish trend in the market, particularly in the chemical sector, driven by the elimination of outdated production capacity and improved industrial profits [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend in the afternoon session, breaking the 3900-point threshold [1] - The China Securities Index for the petrochemical industry rose approximately 2.4%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Hangzhou Oxygen Plant, Hebang Biotechnology, and Yilong Lake [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index's upward movement [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Guosen Securities anticipates that the implementation of outdated capacity elimination will optimize the supply side of the chemical industry, enhancing overall competitiveness [1] - In August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant turnaround from July's -1.5%, signaling stabilization in the industrial economy [1] - The growth in profits is attributed to a low base from the previous year and effective macroeconomic policies, particularly the "anti-involution" measures that have regulated competition and stabilized industrial prices [1] Group 3: ETF and Sector Composition - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Index for the petrochemical industry [1] - The basic chemical industry accounts for 61.93% of the sector distribution, while the oil and petrochemical industry represents 30.84% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and Yilong Lake, collectively accounting for 55.12% of the total weight [1]