FedEx Stock's Sell-Off Drags Down UPS. Is the High-Yield Dividend Stock a Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - FedEx and UPS are facing significant challenges in the logistics sector, with FedEx lowering its earnings guidance and UPS experiencing a decline in sales and operating margins due to reduced consumer spending and high interest rates [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - FedEx has cut its fiscal-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $18.00 to$18.60, reflecting a more than 6% decrease from previous guidance and a 12.9% drop from initial forecasts [4]. - UPS is projecting a 2.3% decline in revenue for 2025, while expecting an increase in operating margin by 130 basis points to 8.8%, which remains below pre-pandemic levels [2][3]. - UPS's CFO indicated that the 2025 guidance does not account for potential negative impacts from global trade changes due to tariffs, which could worsen the company's already weak projections [3]. Group 2: Dividend and Cash Flow Concerns - UPS's dividend payments are consuming a significant portion of its free cash flow (FCF), with management expecting $5.7 billion in FCF for 2025, which includes substantial capital expenditures and dividends [9]. - The company has never cut its dividend since 2000, but the large increase in 2022 may have been ill-timed, as EPS and FCF have since declined [6][7]. - If economic conditions worsen, UPS may need to consider a dividend cut, although even a reduced dividend could still provide an attractive yield for investors [12][13]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, UPS maintains a strong balance sheet with a net long-term debt position of$15 billion, allowing for some flexibility in capital allocation [10][11]. - The company is trading at a low valuation of 16.3 times earnings, suggesting it could still be a good long-term investment for patient investors willing to overlook short-term difficulties [14][15].