巴比食品(605338)：符合预期 平稳改善

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in Q4 2024, with a narrowing gap in same-store sales and high closure rates, indicating potential gradual improvement as same-store performance recovers. The group meal business continues to grow, and overall operations are expected to steadily progress in 2025 [1] Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is maintained at "Buy." The company's new factory in Wuhan is projected to impact profitability starting in early 2025, leading to a downward revision of the 2025-2026 EPS forecast to 1.09 (-0.04) and 1.23 (-0.05) yuan, with a new 2027 EPS forecast of 1.34 yuan. The company is assigned a target price of 24.0 yuan based on a 22X PE for 2025, reflecting strong earnings resilience and valuation adjustments [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 277 million yuan, up 29.42%. The adjusted net profit was 210 million yuan, growing 18.05%. In Q4 2024, the quarterly revenue was 461 million yuan, a 3.84% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 82 million yuan, up 39.23% [2] Store Performance and Cost Control - The gap in same-store sales continues to narrow, with revenue from franchise/direct/group meal channels showing year-on-year changes of -0.42%/-22.83%/+15.31%. The average sales revenue per franchise store was 242,300 yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, but showing a trend of narrowing declines quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit margin increased by 0.36 percentage points to 26.7% in 2024, with Q4 gross margin up 0.5 percentage points, attributed to improved capacity utilization and low costs [3] Strategic Developments - The company added 1,026 new franchise stores and net increased 100 stores (including acquisitions) in 2024. It is actively improving store revenue through structural adjustments, new product launches, and increasing the proportion of takeout sales, which is expected to gradually improve the closure rate. The group meal business is experiencing a recovery in customer demand, and external group meal business expansion is driving sales growth. The company is also pursuing external acquisitions, with the "Qinglu" brand project completed in terms of supply chain transition and equity acquisition, expected to enhance capacity utilization at the Nanjing factory and strengthen synergies [4]