海尔智家(600690)：短期费用拖累 Q1弹性可期

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home reported strong financial results for Q4 2024 and the full year, with significant revenue growth driven by domestic demand and strategic adjustments in product offerings [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Haier achieved revenue of 83.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.59 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, Haier's revenue reached 285.98 billion yuan, representing a 4.29% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 18.74 billion yuan, up 12.92% year-on-year [1]. - The company proposed a cash dividend of 9.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 8.997 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 48% [1]. Group 2: Domestic and International Performance - In Q4 2024, Haier's domestic revenue grew by 10%, benefiting from government policies promoting trade-in programs and the consolidation of Carrier Refrigeration [2]. - The sales volume for refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners in Q4 increased by 10%, 8%, and 29% year-on-year, respectively, with the Casarte brand showing a remarkable 30% revenue growth [2]. - Internationally, Haier's revenue increased by 5% year-on-year in 2024, with a notable acceleration in H2, particularly in Europe, which saw a 15% increase [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - In Q4 2024, the net profit margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The company experienced a rise in operating costs due to accounting adjustments, with management, financial, and R&D expense ratios increasing slightly [3]. - Contract liabilities at the end of Q4 stood at 10.85 billion yuan, reflecting a strong support for future operations [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Haier's domestic sales are expected to continue their upward trajectory due to policy support and proactive adjustments, with anticipated revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 [4]. - Projected earnings for 2025 and 2026 are 21.2 billion yuan and 24 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.0x and 10.6x [4]. - The company maintains a stable dividend yield of approximately 4%, with an increasing dividend payout ratio, supporting a "buy" rating [4].