Orient Securities(SH:600958) 智通财经网·2025-03-31 02:44Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the backdrop of de-globalization and trade barriers, global central bank gold purchases are expected to continue growing, driven by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, economic data, and Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, leading to sustained increases in gold prices [1][2] - Gold investment demand is significantly increasing, with total global demand projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level since 2010. Investment demand alone is expected to rise by 25% to 1,180 tons [1] - The net gold purchases by global central banks are projected to be 1,045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons, indicating a growing influence on gold pricing and a potential weakening of the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [2] Group 2 - The Chinese central bank's gold holdings represent only 6.58% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating significant room for growth. If the gold proportion were to match Spain's level of 21.9%, it would imply a theoretical increase of 6,265.6 tons of gold; if it matched Egypt's level of 23.7%, the increase could be 7,166.9 tons [3] - Monthly net gold purchases by global central banks have remained stable from 2022 to 2024, with monthly purchases typically ranging from 50 to 100 tons. A significant increase in monthly purchases could lead to a near 5% rise in gold prices, although there may be a 1-2 month lag in the price response [4]