2025加密市场首季收官，“月线”凉凉？比特币跌破8.1万！布局4月份新机会，山寨被套、腰斩，接下来逆风翻盘？

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a turbulent first quarter of 2025, with expectations for a spring rally unmet, largely due to Trump's tariff policies impacting both the stock and crypto markets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant downturn in the market, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading below $80,000, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][6]. - The market has shifted from a euphoric state to a challenging environment, with inflation concerns and tariff impacts creating a complex macroeconomic backdrop [6][4]. - The S&P 500 surged 60% over the past two years, while Bitcoin saw a more than 700% increase, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve policy shifts and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs [3][4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy has created a "game of expectations," with fluctuating interest rate signals affecting high-risk asset investments [4][6]. - The dual impact of AI technology and ETF developments has shifted from initial excitement to a more subdued market response, as institutional investment slows [5][6]. - Trump's tariff policies, while initially perceived as beneficial, have led to increased domestic inflation and potential trade retaliation, complicating economic growth [6][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future market recovery may depend on the stabilization of Trump's policies, the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, and the emergence of significant breakthroughs in the AI sector [8][9]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategic approach, focusing on accumulating assets within the $83,000 to $98,000 range and seeking opportunities in emerging narratives such as DeFi compliance and Layer 2 scaling [9][7]. - The current market environment, while challenging, presents opportunities for skill development and research, as historical trends suggest that significant wealth creation often occurs during bear markets [9][8].