“上海价格”影响力显现 参与主体日益丰富

Core Insights - Shanghai crude oil futures (SC) have established a strong correlation with international crude oil prices, particularly influenced by significant changes in domestic fundamentals or trade flows, showcasing the impact of "Shanghai prices" [1] - The participation in Shanghai crude oil futures has diversified, with various enterprises utilizing these futures for risk management, reflecting the growing influence of Shanghai prices in the global market [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of early 2023, China's crude oil imports decreased by over 11% year-on-year, with refinery operating rates near the lower limit of a five-year range, indicating pressure on the midstream refining sector [1] - By September 2024, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was low, and domestic macroeconomic measures boosted the commodity market, leading to a short-term spike in the price difference between November and December contracts to over 20 yuan/barrel [2] - The price movements in Shanghai crude oil futures are driven by positive macroeconomic conditions in China, with the Dubai crude near-month contract prices rising in response [2] Group 2: Participation and Trading Activity - The number of domestic and international participants in Shanghai crude oil futures trading has increased, with institutional clients accounting for over 40% of daily transactions and over 70% of daily positions by 2024 [2] - The number of overseas clients in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by approximately 21% year-on-year, while Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFI) clients grew by about 66% [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Impact - Shanghai crude oil futures have become a crucial tool for companies facing short-term supply shortages, particularly in response to tight Middle Eastern crude oil imports [3] - In February 2023, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refineries rose above 79%, indicating a recovery in processing volumes and a strong demand for Shanghai crude oil futures contracts [3] - By late February 2023, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory reached 5.887 million barrels, with delivery volumes increasing significantly, marking the highest level since July 2023 [4]