CMES(601872) 新浪财经·2025-04-01 00:33Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% [1] - In Q4 alone, the revenue was 6.503 billion yuan, down 5.18%, but the net profit reached 1.738 billion yuan, up 61.1%, marking a three-year quarterly high [1] Business Performance Analysis - Oil transportation revenue was 9.206 billion yuan, down 4.8%, with a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan, down 14.5%. The freight rates for oil tankers showed a fluctuating trend, with average TCE for VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax at 47,000/day, and $44,000/day, reflecting year-on-year declines of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 21.7% respectively [1] - Bulk shipping revenue increased to 7.940 billion yuan, up 11.7%, with net profit reaching 1.548 billion yuan, up 72% due to favorable seasonal conditions [1] - Container shipping revenue was 5.434 billion yuan, down 1.9%, with net profit of 1.314 billion yuan, up 50.5%, driven by significant capacity increases in Southeast Asia and South Asia routes [1] Fleet Optimization and Capital Expenditure - The company received three new Aframax tankers in 2024 and has placed orders for additional vessels, with capital expenditures projected at 11.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 14.2 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 8.476 billion yuan, down 4.95%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.56 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 40.7%, alongside a share buyback amounting to 132 million yuan, which together accounts for 43.3% of net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Market Outlook - The freight market for oil tankers is expected to maintain a positive trend in 2025, with a reduction in nominal capacity for VLCCs anticipated due to restrictions on "shadow fleets" and the aging fleet being less efficient [3] - If sanctions are lifted, older tankers may face a peak in scrapping, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil tanker market [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 6.685 billion yuan, 6.953 billion yuan, and 7.311 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, supported by a favorable outlook for the VLCC sector and benefits from the commencement of the West Manganese iron ore project [4] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to the synergistic growth across its various business segments [4]