中国神华(601088)：归母净利同比-1.7% 超预期分红彰显龙头风范

Investment Highlights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be 586.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, demonstrating resilience in performance [1] - The proposed cash dividend is 2.26 yuan per share, totaling 449 billion yuan, which represents a payout ratio of 76.5%, exceeding previous years' ratios [1] Coal Sector - In 2024, the company's self-produced coal output and sales are expected to reach 327 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8% and 0.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The average selling price of coal is projected to be 564 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment is anticipated to generate revenue of 2686.2 billion yuan and a total profit of 543.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 30% [2] Power Generation Sector - The company's electricity sales volume is expected to increase by 5.2% in 2024, reaching 210.28 billion kWh [3] - The average selling price of electricity is projected to be 0.403 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year [3] - The power segment is expected to achieve revenue of 942.2 billion yuan and a total profit of 111.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 16.3% [3] Transportation Sector - The railway segment is projected to generate a total profit of 125.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [4] - The port segment is expected to achieve a total profit of 21.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [4] - The company is advancing several capacity expansion projects, which are expected to enhance overall transportation capacity [4] Capital Expenditure - The actual capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at 330 billion yuan, with 90% of the budget allocated to coal, power, and transportation sectors [5] - For 2025, the planned capital expenditure is 418 billion yuan, focusing on new coal and power projects [6] Investment Recommendation - The company has a high proportion of long-term coal contracts, indicating stable profitability in coal operations [7] - The new power generation capacity is expected to support revenue growth, and the company's commitment to dividends reflects its long-term investment value [7]