煤炭 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《重视煤价四段轮推断，稳煤价依旧 —行业周报》-2025.12.7 煤价上行回归合理价格，坚定稳煤价逻辑 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：煤价上行回归合理价格，坚定稳煤价逻辑 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 1 月 17 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 695 元/吨，环比下降 4 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复到 750 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - The coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate coal stocks on dips. The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal prices have established a bottom and are expected to rise. High - quality coal enterprises have core asset attributes such as high profitability, high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividends. The coal sector is still undervalued, and its valuation is expected to increase. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan", and coal prices are likely to remain high. The report continues to be bullish on the coal sector and recommends top - down attention to several types of coal companies [3][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: The coal industry is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. The supply side shows an increase in the utilization rate of sample power and coking coal mine wells. On the demand side, there are differences in coal consumption between inland and coastal areas, and non - electric demand also shows different trends. Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded since late December, but the rebound momentum weakened this week. In the future, inventory depletion and the upcoming cold wave will support coal prices, and the market is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday. The coal sector has high - dividend support and upward elasticity, making it a cost - effective investment [11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on companies with stable operations and performance, those with large previous declines and high elasticity, and high - quality metallurgical coal companies. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Key Focus**: In 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; India's coal production was basically flat with a slight decline; global seaborne coal trade decreased by 2.8% [13] 2. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 3.33% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.87. The top - three sectors in terms of gains were computer, electronics, and media [14] - The power coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 3.46%, 3.66%, and 4.38% respectively [17] - The top - three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (3.97%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (2.90%), and Diantou Energy (0.81%) [20] 3. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of January 16, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 688.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 686.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At ports, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 697 yuan/ton on January 17, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. At production sites, prices in some areas were stable while in Datong, it decreased. Internationally, FOB and CIF prices showed different trends [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports, the prices of coking coal in Jingtang Port and Lianyungang increased. At production sites, prices in some areas increased while in others they were stable. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China increased [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: The coking anthracite car - loading price in Jiaozuo was flat, while the prices of pulverized coal injection in Changzhi and Yangquan decreased [40] 4. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of sample power coal mine wells was 90.6%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of sample coking coal mine wells was 88.47%, up 3.1 percentage points week - on - week [47] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of January 16, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw a decrease in coal inventory and an increase in daily consumption, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in both inventory and consumption [44] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index increased slightly, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the profit per ton of coke decreased, the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnace increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the blast furnace scrap consumption ratio decreased [65][66] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: Urea prices in some regions increased, the national methanol price index decreased, the national ethylene glycol price index decreased, the national acetic acid price index increased, the national synthetic ammonia price index increased, the national cement price index decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and chemical weekly coal consumption increased [72][76] 5. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased to 550.0 tons; 55 ports' thermal coal inventory decreased to 6830.8 tons; the inventory of 462 sample mines decreased to 283.9 tons [91] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production - site inventory decreased to 272.4 tons, the six - port inventory decreased to 298.9 tons, the inventory of independent coking plants increased to 954.8 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 802.2 tons [92] - **Coke Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased to 40.6 tons, the four - port inventory increased to 188.1 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 650.33 tons [94] 6. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of January 16, the China Yangtze River Coal Transportation Comprehensive Freight Index (CCSFI) was 704 points, down 3.6 points week - on - week [107] - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Northern Ports**: As of January 16, the inventory at four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1465.2 tons, the number of anchored ships was 99, and the ratio of cargo to ships was 14.8, down 1.96 week - on - week [102] - **Daqin Line Coal Transportation**: The average daily coal shipment volume on the Daqin Line this week was 118.0 tons, up 9.75 tons week - on - week [107] 7. Weather Situation - As of January 16, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9180 cubic meters per second, up 23.22% week - on - week [114] - In the next 10 days, there will be precipitation in some areas, and a cold wave will affect many regions with significant temperature drops [114] - In the long - term (January 27 - 30), there will be precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be lower or higher than normal [114] 8. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profit attributable to shareholders, EPS, and PE of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [115] - **Key Announcements**: Xinji Energy released its 2025 performance report; Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its controlling shareholder's strategic restructuring; Guanghui Energy announced a guarantee - related关联交易; Meijin Energy announced a guarantee for its subsidiary and its 2025 performance forecast [116][117][118] 9. This Week's Important Industry News - By 2030, Guizhou's coal production and trial - operation capacity will reach 260 million tons per year [119] - Yunnan will increase coal resource exploration and promote the release of advanced coal production capacity [119] - 20 coal mines in Ordos passed the intelligent acceptance [119] - Guizhou has made breakthroughs in the coal and unconventional natural gas fields [119] - Jiangsu released its 2026 major project list, including one coal - related project [120]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [9]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a potential turning point driven by AI reshaping demand in the U.S. and supply constraints from Indonesia [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring "black swan" events that could significantly impact coal prices, particularly changes in domestic policies and increased demand from the U.S. [3]. - The report indicates that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamentals but could see price increases if unexpected events occur [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3690.69 points, down 3.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.77 percentage points [4][74]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3 RMB/ton [30]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption remains strong, and pre-holiday production cuts are expected, suggesting a continued upward trend in coal prices [15]. - **Coking Coal**: Increased purchasing by steel companies is driving coking coal prices higher, with significant price increases noted in various coal types [35][48]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the coal market is mixed, with some participants optimistic about future demand due to weather changes and others concerned about weak terminal demand [32]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and others, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [11][10]. - Companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa are highlighted for their potential recovery and growth prospects [11]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with low-sulfur coking coal prices rising by 100 RMB/ton week-on-week [35]. - The report notes that the average profit per ton of coking coal has decreased, indicating pressure on margins for some producers [72]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of thermal coal at major ports was reported at 6440 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6 million tons [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches, which typically affects supply [15]. Conclusion - The coal industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for price increases driven by demand shifts and supply constraints. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong market positions and growth potential in this evolving landscape [3][11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that coal imports in December increased by 12% year-on-year, and the daily consumption of power plants is expected to continue growing [1][85]. Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with the first round of price hikes for coke expected to be implemented next Monday [5][11]. - The CCI 5500 kcal thermal coal index reported at 702 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1 RMB/ton [11][86]. - The average daily consumption of coastal power plants was 218,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [28]. Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to maintain stability due to high daily consumption and a potential decrease in production in the first quarter [5][86]. - The overall supply-demand balance in the medium to long term is expected to remain tight, with a potential increase in the price center compared to 2025 [5][86]. - The total profit of the coal mining industry from January to November 2025 was 297 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 47% [5]. Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5]. - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others [5]. - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy, and others [5]. Recent Focus Areas - Industry policies have remained stable, with stricter safety regulations limiting production [5][88]. - The demand growth rate for coal has generally declined, but December saw a significant increase in coal imports [5][92].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation, with policies aimed at energy security and a shift in supply dynamics. The coal price is expected to stabilize, with potential fluctuations in the short term [5][6] - The report highlights the limited elasticity of coal supply due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This is expected to lead to a concentration of production in western areas, raising supply costs [5] - The report suggests that despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 3.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 2.96% [13] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 16, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 695 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 66 CNY/ton [3][32] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.467 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][42] - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at major power plants, with inventory levels slightly increasing [3][46] 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 1,770 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150 CNY/ton [4][76] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 769,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][76] - The report indicates that the coking coal market is experiencing upward price adjustments, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from steel production [4][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report recommends considering companies with integrated coal and power operations to mitigate cyclical volatility, such as Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a recovery in demand due to a cold wave, which may stimulate heating needs and lead to increased procurement [7]. - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize and potentially increase in the latter part of January, driven by a combination of steady supply and moderate demand recovery [7]. - The investment strategy suggests positioning in coal stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, particularly those with strong dividend yields and low valuations [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,905.163 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,857.669 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [5]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in coal prices, with a recent increase in coking coal prices by 150 yuan/ton, while thermal coal prices have seen a slight decline [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.467 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.28% [8]. Inventory and Supply Chain - Coal inventory levels at major ports have increased, with a total of 27.012 million tons reported as of January 17, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.50% [7]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply in the near term due to ongoing safety inspections and the upcoming holiday season affecting production [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8]. 2. Companies with growth potential based on their production capacity, such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [8]. 3. Companies positioned for recovery in coking coal prices, including Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to a combination of cold weather and pre-holiday stockpiling, with prices projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [10][12]. - The report highlights a recovery in coal prices post-New Year, driven by reduced production and low inventory levels at ports [10][12]. - The focus is on companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance for 2024 [10][12]. - The report suggests that downstream replenishment has begun, leading to a stable to slightly strong outlook for coking coal prices [10][12]. - The first round of price increases for coke is anticipated due to rising raw material costs and improved steel mill profitability [10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 3.3%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [18][21]. - The best-performing stocks included 云维股份 and 江钨装备, while 大有能源 faced the largest decline [24][26]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Mongolia's coal exports increased by 7.11% year-on-year, while Australia's coal export value decreased by 13.48% [28][32]. - China's coal imports rose by 11.94% in December 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in demand [34][34]. Company Performance - New集能源 reported a 3.01% increase in raw coal production for 2025, while 中煤能源 saw an 8.0% decrease in December's coal production [44][45]. - 大有能源 projected a significant net loss for 2025, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [46][51].

同壁财经讯，企查查数据显示，根据《神东煤炭2025年11月开关柜采购公开招标中标结果公告》，河南 森源电气股份有限公司于2026年1月16日公告中标中国神华能源股份有限公司神东煤炭分公司采购项 目，中标金额为3831.00万元。 相关上市公司：森源电气(002358.SZ) 同壁财经小贴士： 目前公司属于工业行业，主要产品类型为变电设备、环卫服务，2024年报主营构成为输变电产 品:84.07%;环卫产业服务:13.95%;其他业务:1.98%。 同壁财经讯，企查查数据显示，根据《神东煤炭2025年11月开关柜采购公开招标中标结果公告》，河南 森源电气股份有限公司于2026年1月16日公告中标中国神华能源股份有限公司神东煤炭分公司采购项 目，中标金额为3831.00万元。 相关上市公司：森源电气(002358.SZ) 目前公司属于工业行业，主要产品类型为变电设备、环卫服务，2024年报主营构成为输变电产 品:84.07%;环卫产业服务:13.95%;其他业务:1.98%。 森源电气（002358.SZ）2024年营业收入为27.67亿元，营业收入增长率为4.94%，归属母公司净利润为 0.89亿元，归属母公司 ...

承中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会命 总会计师、董事会秘书 宋静刚 2026 年 1 月 17 日 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 12 月 | 累计 | 12 月 | 累计 | 12 月 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 商品煤产量 1. | 百万吨 | 27.8 | 332.1 | 29.4 | 337.9 | (5.4) | (1.7) | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 41.4 | 430.9 | 38.0 | 460.2 | 8.9 | (6.4) | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁路运输周转量 | 十亿吨公里 | 24.6 | 313.0 | ...

中国神华1月16日公告，2025年1-12月，公司累计煤炭销售量4.31亿吨，同比下降6.4%。 ...