帮主这就给你整理一份中长线放心拿的低估值高股息核心标的清单，都是经过基本面和估值双重筛选的，咱们做中长线就认"稳"字： 最后是制造板块的优质标的，高股息+低估值，还有产业逻辑支撑。比如福耀玻璃，全球汽车玻璃龙头，股息率3.5%左右，估值15倍上下，新能源汽车渗透 率提升，玻璃需求稳增，而且海外工厂盈利不错，长期逻辑很硬；再就是中国铁建，基建龙头，股息率4%以上，估值不到8倍，稳增长政策下基建订单充 足，现金流稳定，分红也靠谱。 这里帮主得提醒一句，这些标的是中长线布局的方向，不是让你下周一把梭哈，还是按照之前说的分批加仓，结合3850点附近的企稳信号来操作。需要我再 把每个标的的最新估值和股息率数据细化，或者补充对应的加仓节奏吗？ 然后是公用事业板块，刚需属性拉满，不管市场怎么跌，业绩都稳得一批。首选长江电力，水电龙头中的龙头，股息率常年维持在3.5%-4%，现金流稳定得 像"印钞机"，而且水电是清洁能源，政策支持力度大，拿着完全不用慌；再就是中国神华，煤炭+电力双驱动，股息率能到5%以上，资源储备足，分红大 方，属于"高股息+硬资产"双buff加持。 接下来是消费板块里的错杀白马，估值回到合理区间，股息率也 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the rising cost structure and expected increase in coal prices [2][6]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a structural change with a systematic increase in the cost base, driven by factors such as increased mining depth, stricter environmental compliance, and rising safety investments. This has led to a higher price floor for coal, making it unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015 [8][7]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs are not a temporary phenomenon but are supported by rigid factors such as labor costs, safety investments, and environmental governance, which are expected to persist in the long term [7][8]. - The anticipated tightening of supply due to production constraints and limited new capacity is expected to support a steady increase in coal prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Cost Research Framework - The report outlines the components of coal production costs, including direct and indirect costs, with a focus on production costs as the most significant element [16][17]. 2. Thermal Coal: Cost Support and Price Floor - From 2015 to 2024, the average complete cost of thermal coal for sample enterprises increased from 216 CNY/ton to 306 CNY/ton, with a CAGR of 4%. The production cost rose from 161 CNY/ton to 231 CNY/ton [29][30]. - In 2024, benchmark companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy have complete costs of 251, 294, and 310 CNY/ton respectively [29][30]. 3. Coking Coal: Rising Cost Support - The complete cost of coking coal for sample companies increased from 546 CNY/ton to 1051 CNY/ton from 2015 to 2024, with a CAGR of 7.6%. The production cost rose from 432 CNY/ton to 814 CNY/ton [5][6]. - The report indicates that the cost structure for coking coal is also expected to rise due to increased mining difficulty and regulatory pressures [5][6]. 4. Supply Tightening and Market Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal production has been in negative growth since July, influenced by loss pressures and capacity checks, which are expected to tighten supply further [6][7]. - Import volumes have been declining for eight consecutive months, limiting the ability to supplement domestic supply [6][7]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to more elastic stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co. [6][7].

Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the importance of corporate governance and board effectiveness in listed companies, leading to the launch of the "2025 Best Practices for Corporate Boards" initiative, which has recognized 240 best practice cases, 190 excellent cases, and 156 typical cases [1][2]. Group 1: Corporate Governance and Board Effectiveness - The initiative aims to enhance the legal and compliant operation of corporate boards, improving governance effectiveness in response to higher demands from the new "National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy framework [1]. - The core role of corporate boards is to drive strategic decision-making, align with national macro policies, and integrate company growth into the modernization of the industrial system [1][2]. - Companies are encouraged to establish robust internal control systems and risk supervision capabilities to support high-quality development in the capital market [1][2]. Group 2: Value Management and Shareholder Returns - Corporate boards are elevating value management to a strategic level, focusing on enhancing intrinsic value, optimizing investor communication, and standardizing information disclosure [2]. - Emphasis on sustainable dividends has become a key aspect of governance, with companies responding to policies for multiple dividends per year and ensuring the continuity and stability of shareholder return policies [2]. - The boards are actively working to improve investor satisfaction and confidence through optimized dividend strategies [2]. Group 3: ESG Integration - Corporate boards are advancing the establishment and practice of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) frameworks, embedding sustainability into strategic planning and performance evaluation [3]. - The ESG strategy focuses on innovation, employee growth, environmental friendliness, and corporate governance, aiming for a sustainable development governance model unique to China [3]. Group 4: Best Practice Case Listings - A comprehensive list of recognized companies for best practices in corporate governance has been compiled, showcasing a diverse range of sectors and industries [4][5][6][7][8][9][10].

上市企业：中国神华（601088）,中煤能源（601898）,山西焦煤（000983）,潞安环能（601699）,淮北矿 业（600985）,平煤股份（601666）,山煤国际（600546）,冀中能源（000937）,陕西煤业（601225）,华 阳股份（600348） 2020-2025年1-9月中国原煤产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《中国煤炭产业全景调研及未来发展趋势研判报告（2026版）》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国原煤产量为4.1亿吨，同比下降1.8%；2025年1-9月中国原煤 累计产量为35.7亿吨，累计增长2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slight adjustment towards market-oriented policies in the long-term coal supply contracts for 2026 compared to 2025, with both quantity and price aspects moving closer to market mechanisms [2][7] - The signing volume for coal enterprises is set to be no less than 75% of their own resource volume, while for power generation enterprises, the minimum signing volume should be at least 80% of the demand [2] - The fulfillment rates have been relaxed slightly, with monthly fulfillment remaining at no less than 80%, quarterly fulfillment now being generally no less than 90%, and annual fulfillment also generally no less than 90% [2] - The pricing mechanism for long-term contracts may begin to reference indices, with a monthly adjustment mechanism established for the pricing of coal from production areas [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the coal mining industry continues to show a long-term upward price trend driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The 2026 policy document indicates that contracts for coal from production areas must align with reasonable price ranges and establish a monthly adjustment mechanism through negotiation between supply and demand enterprises [3] - The pricing for long-term contracts for coal remains unchanged, with a base price set at current levels [4] Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the coal mining sector has shown a performance of 2.3% over one month, 11.3% over three months, and 0.2% over twelve months, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which recorded 1.6%, 8.6%, and 15.4% respectively [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their strong cash flow and high asset quality [8] - Specific recommendations include: - Steady stocks: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in thermal coal: Yanzhou Coal, Jinko Energy, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in coking coal: Huaibei Mining, Pingdingshan Coal, and others [8] Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several coal enterprises [10]

Market Overview - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 2.08% on November 20, with Dayou Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Xindazhou A (000571) increased by 0.88% to close at 5.76, with a trading volume of 342,200 shares and a turnover of 195 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) fell by 9.97% to 8.31, with a trading volume of 1,108,400 shares and a turnover of 95.26 million yuan [2] - China Shenhua (601088) decreased by 1.22% to 42.00, with a trading volume of 140,700 shares and a turnover of 596 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 564 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 580 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates: - Huai Bei Mining (600985) had a net outflow of 35.39 million yuan from major funds [3] - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) recorded a net inflow of 22.42 million yuan from major funds [3] - New Dazhou A (000571) experienced a net inflow of 18.34 million yuan from major funds [3]

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 20 年 月 日 煤炭开采 产地扰动仍存，进口煤同环比下滑—强调 3 个观点 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 10 月份能源生产情况。 10 月原煤产量同比-2.3%。据国家统计局数据，10 月份，规上工业原煤 产量 4.1 亿吨，同比下滑 2.3%，月环比持平；日均产量 1312 万吨。1— 10 月份，规上工业原煤产量 39.7 亿吨，同比增长 1.5%。展望 2025 年， 暂不考虑"反内卷"对产量的影响下，结合我们对 2025 年煤矿产能投放 情况的梳理，预计全年动力煤产量仍将保持增长态势，或达 38.8 亿吨左 右，但增速进一步收窄至 1.4%左右。 10 月煤炭进口量同比-9.75%。2025 年 10 月份，我国进口煤炭 4173.7 万吨，较去年同期减少 451.1 万吨，同比下降 9.75%；较 9 月下降 426.6 万吨，月环比下降 9.27%。2025 年 1-10 月份，我国共进口煤炭 38762.3 万吨，同比下降 11%。参考普氏等预测数据，我们预计全年动力煤进口水 平或降至 3.8 亿吨左右，同比下滑 6 ...

Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have continued to rise, exceeding 830 CNY/ton, but a short-term peak may be reached [1] - The core reason for the recent coal price increase is a fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics since May [1] - The coal production for October was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with production from July to October showing a continuous decline [1] - The total electricity consumption in August and September increased by 4.6%, a significant recovery from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating strong demand [1] - Despite entering the typical demand off-season, demand has remained unexpectedly high, particularly in East China [1] Group 3: Market Insights - As of November 14, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 837 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous week [2] - The focus on domestic supply stability and reduced imports is expected to maintain a steady decline in total supply for the year [2] - The operating rate of major coking enterprises was reported at 79.18%, indicating a slight increase [2] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [3] - Other recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [3]

东吴证券则表示，从高股息逻辑分析，受益于煤价在2025年二季度见底，煤炭上市公司业绩从三季度开 始触底，预计未来煤价相对稳定造就龙头公司持续盈利稳定。预期随着保险资金成本的持续下降，最终 高分红标的中国神华、陕西煤业（601225）股息率将有望从2025年4.5%左右股息率下降至2026年中 3.5%左右。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。10月份， 规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的核心原 因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的大趋势 不会改变。 煤炭股延续跌势，截至发稿，中煤能源（601898）(01898)跌4.48%，报10.87港元；兖矿能源（600188） (01171)跌3.71%，报10.63港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)跌1.56%，报40.36港元；兖煤澳大利亚 (03668)跌0.87%，报27.22港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1][13]. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 medium- and long-term coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with a slight relaxation in performance requirements. The plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 contracts, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism [1][2]. - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, while the port benchmark price remains unchanged at 675 RMB/ton [3][10]. - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited, leading to a recovery in coal prices and improved performance in long-term contracts [3][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing Requirements - For power companies, the signing demand should not be less than 80% of the required amount, with 80% of these contracts under key regulatory oversight. For coal companies, the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [2][10]. Pricing Mechanism - The production area contracts will now have a monthly price adjustment mechanism, with the benchmark price set based on the reasonable price range for coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The floating price will be determined by various indices [3][10]. Performance Supervision - The contract performance requirements have been relaxed, with monthly performance rates required to be no less than 80%, and quarterly and annual rates should generally not be less than 90%. There is an emphasis on increasing performance during peak seasons [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with significant recovery potential, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [6].