行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 重要信息回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 持续降温提振日耗，叠加年底安监 趋严，预计煤价上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.28-2026.1.4） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、 Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 505、593、682 元/吨，环比+18、+14、+6 元 ...

2026 年 01 月 04 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 北港库存去化明显，港口煤价开启上涨 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -3.3% | 2.4% | -6.3% | | 沪深 300 | 2.3% | -0.2% | 17.7% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：本周生产收紧，电厂日耗环 比提升，港口煤价降幅收窄（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈 晨》——2025-12-28 《煤炭开采行业周报：年末供应下 ...

供需博弈加剧，煤价震荡延续 | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 18,604.66 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 18,136.90 | 2025-12-27 华千亿收购提升价值》2025-12-20 弱势下探》2025-12-13 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 山西焦煤 | 6.42 | 1.19 | 0.55 | 0.35 | ...

北海二期2×100万千瓦超超临界一次再热燃煤发电机组全部建成投运 近日，中国神华能源股份有限公司持股约52%的控股子公司国能广投北海发电有限公司（"北海电力"） 二期扩建工程项目（"北海二期"）4 号机组顺利通过168小时试运行，移交商业运营。至此，北海二期2 台100万千瓦超超临界一次再热燃煤发电机组全部建成投运。 国家能源集团又一台百万机组投运 近日，中国神华能源股份有限公司持股67%的控股子公司国能清远发电有限责任公司二期扩建工程项目 （"清远二期"）3号发电机组顺利通过168小时试运行，正式投入商业运营。 清远二期位于广东省清远市英德市沙口镇，规划建设2台100万千瓦超超临界二次再热燃煤发电机组，是 广东省"十四五"规划能源保障重点工程。项目采用高效清洁煤电技术，设计供电煤耗262.23克/千瓦时， 可实现大气污染物超低排放及废水零排放。目前，清远二期4号发电机组建设工作稳步推进，计划于 2026年2月投运。项目全部投运后，将有效缓解所在区域能源供应压力，为粤港澳大湾区能源安全提供 保障。 近日，中国神华能源股份有限公司持股67%的控股子公司国能清远发电有限责任公司二期扩建工程项目 （"清远二期"）3 ...

天眼查资料显示，中国神华煤制油化工有限公司，成立于2003年，位于北京市，是一家以从事其他制造 业为主的企业。企业注册资本3123711.585277万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国神华煤制油化工 有限公司共对外投资了20家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，专利信息2107条，此外企业还拥有行政许可 20个。 来源：市场资讯 神华工程技术有限公司，成立于2017年，位于北京市，是一家以从事土木工程建筑业为主的企业。企业 注册资本48674.4万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，神华工程技术有限公司共对外投资了1家企业，参 与招投标项目3458次，专利信息159条，此外企业还拥有行政许可36个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国神华煤制油化工有限公司、神华工程技术有限公司取得一项名为"含气 工况用液力透平性能测试设备"的专利，授权公告号CN116608075B，申请日期为2023年5月。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's board approved a restructuring plan to acquire equity stakes in 12 target companies from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, for a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, making it the largest acquisition in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes 13 companies, with notable assets such as Xinjiang Energy's coal production capacity of 101.5 million tons per year and Uhuai Energy's certified total capacity of 15 million tons [2]. - The coal chemical company involved has unique projects, including the world's only million-ton coal direct liquefaction and the first set of 600,000 tons/year coal-to-olefins [2]. - The transaction will increase China Shenhua's coal reserves to 6.849 billion tons, a 64.72% increase, and its recoverable coal reserves to 3.45 billion tons, nearly doubling its capacity with a 97.71% increase [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Post-transaction, China Shenhua's total assets will rise to 896.587 billion yuan, with equity attributable to shareholders at 419.038 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.55% [5]. - The total operating revenue is projected to reach 206.509 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.637 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - This acquisition will further solidify China Shenhua's position as a leading global integrated energy company and enhance its capabilities in the coal chemical and new materials sectors [4].

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery in profits, with November electricity consumption increasing by 6.2% year-on-year [6][32] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, indicating confidence in its future performance [3] Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In December, the coal sector saw a slight decline, underperforming the market by 19.4 percentage points year-to-date [6][16] - The coal sector's cumulative decline for the year is 1.7%, ranking 29th out of 30 sectors [6][16] - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke experienced declines of 3.5%, 4.5%, and 5.8% respectively in December [6][16] Group 2: Coal Market Overview - November electricity consumption grew by 6.2%, while non-electric demand remained weak, and coal imports fell by approximately 20% year-on-year [6][32] - Domestic coal prices have shown weakness in thermal coal, while coking coal prices have stabilized and slightly increased [32][40] - International coal prices for high-calorific thermal coal have remained stable, while coking coal prices have continued to rise [49] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply - In November, domestic raw coal production decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with imports down by 19.9% [59] - The total raw coal production for the first eleven months of the year was 4.402 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [59] - The report highlights that the demand for electricity and industrial production remains a critical factor influencing coal consumption [51][52] Group 4: Key Companies and Financial Analysis - Key companies with stable profits and dividends include China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6][7] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and supply constraints include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huabei Mining [6][7] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) [7]

重大资产重组量增质升、千亿巨头并购案层出不穷、各类"首单"百花齐放……2025年，并购重组热潮成了资本市场的核心关键词之一。 Wind数据显示，以首次披露日期计算，截至2025年12月30日，2025年A股市场并购重组项目共4515起，同比增长1.64%，已披露的交易总金额超过1.91万亿 元，同比增长5.83%。其中，构成重大资产重组的并购事件为148起，同比增长49.49%。从并购重组项目的进度来看，1627单已完成重组，120单宣告失败， 其余项目仍在流程中。 2024年，央企中国船舶（600150.SH）吸收合并中国重工（601989.SH），1151.50亿元的交易金额给市场带来不小震撼。2025年，A股诞生了3起千亿元级别 的重磅并购重组案，其中，海光信息（688041.SH）1159.67亿元吸收合并中科曙光（603019.SH）以失败告终，其余两起千亿元级别并购案还在推进中，将 成为留给2026年的"彩蛋"。 随着政策红利的持续释放，活力持续提升的资本市场成为并购重组、资源优化配置的"主战场"。 2025年12月9日，中国中冶（601618.SH）宣布，拟剥离旗下地产子公司出售予大股东中国五矿 ...

FF301 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 19,868,519,955 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國神華能源股份有限公司 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01088 | 說明 | | H股 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 3,377,482,000 | | 0 | | 3,377,482,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 3,377,482,000 | | 0 | | 3,377,482,000 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal industry is entering a new cycle with a significant increase in value, driven by supply-demand restructuring and improved market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Cycle Review - The coal price center has significantly increased during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to usher in a new cycle [4][15]. - The report reviews four cycles of the coal industry, highlighting that the current cycle may see a recovery from the bottom in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal reached 718 RMB/ton in the second half of 2025, reflecting a 6% increase compared to the first half [20][21]. Group 2: Supply Restructuring - Coal production from 2020 to 2024 increased by 23% to 4.78 billion tons, but growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, with production growth in Xinjiang only at 2.6% [4][33]. - The report anticipates that coal production will enter a peak and decline phase, with growth rates expected to be between 0.5% and 1.0% from 2026 to 2028 [4][33]. - Regulatory policies are expected to impact coal production, potentially leading to negative growth in certain periods [4][33]. Group 3: Demand Restructuring - The demand for coal is expected to maintain resilience, with electricity consumption projected to grow at around 5% over the next five years, driven by new manufacturing and increased electrification [4][33]. - The report notes that while coal consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to electricity demand pressures, it is likely to recover as macroeconomic policies strengthen in 2026 [4][33]. - Chemical demand is projected to grow at approximately 5%, while declines in steel and construction materials are expected to narrow [4][33]. Group 4: Global and Commodity Perspectives - The report highlights that global coal production is expected to decline, while Southeast Asian demand is projected to grow by 3-5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][33]. - Compared to other commodities, coal has shown weaker performance, with the copper-coal ratio and gold-coal ratio at historical highs [4][33]. - The coal industry's share of industrial profits has dropped to historical lows, while the electricity sector's profit share has reached a high of 10% [4][33]. Group 5: Overall Viewpoint - The report concludes that the coal price center is expected to rise to around 750 RMB/ton in 2026, with leading companies offering dividend yields of 4-6% [4][33]. - Key companies identified include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain stable profitability [4][33]. - The report emphasizes that after a pessimistic outlook on coal prices is reversed, valuation elasticity is likely to become apparent [4][33].