送放后 相关研究 le of the see and 2025 年 11 月 17 日 版 行业 若研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 vantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施侍瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 环保检查下,产量 取暖季煤价预计上 煤炭行业周报（2025.11.8-2025.11.14） 本期投资后示 动力煤方面，截至 11 月 14 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 645、736、834 元/吨，环比分别增长 13、15、17 元/吨。供 给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 196.99 万吨，环比上周熠加 1.80 万吨、涨幅 0.92%、同比上升 3.42%。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 资源民族主义觉醒，高估的煤炭供给 2026年煤炭行业投资策略 证券分析师：严天鹏 A0230524090004 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 闫海 A0230519010004 研究支持： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 联系人： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 2025.11.17 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 逆全球化浪潮推动资源民族主义持续觉醒，煤炭作为关键战略能源，其保障国家能源安全的核 心价值被重新凸显。印尼、蒙古、美国等主要煤炭储量大国纷纷强化对煤炭资源的管控，将其 纳入国家战略布局，通过规范开采、优化利用、下游延链等方式来巩固能源自主底气。这些国 家既依托煤炭资源支撑国内工业与电力需求，同时期冀本国煤炭资源成为地缘博弈与经济发展 的双重支撑。 ◼ 供给端：展望2026年，煤炭行业正面临深层次的格局重塑，在能源安全战略地位凸显的背景下， 安监、环保常态化将促使供给秩序趋于理性，从源头上推动煤炭行业迈向高质量发展，产能释 放预计稳中有紧。 ◼ 需求端：考虑到全社会用电量的刚性增长，及新能源出力存在波动性，煤电在调峰 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20251110-20251116） OPEC 预期供给过剩，本周油价下跌 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 493 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 51,121.17 | 4.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 45,298.84 | 4.89 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.6% | 18.4% | 53.8% | | 相对表现 | 1.3% | 8.4% | 21.7% | -10% 6% 23% 39% 24 ...

华源证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，2025年Q3，煤炭板块在"查超产"政策支撑下价格企稳回升， 动力煤企业受益于长协履约改善与煤电联营，盈利环比提升；炼焦煤企业因长协定价滞后，盈利表现相 对承压。Q4冬季预计采暖需求增长与供给端政策持续偏紧影响下有望支撑煤价保持强势，行业整体业 绩有望延续改善趋势。 动力煤受益量稳价升本降及煤电一体化，Q4炼焦煤企业端价格有望显著回升 仅从自产煤单位盈利情况看，煤价传导滞后是普遍性影响，阶段性成本上升是个别影响，这两大因素单 独或共同影响了煤企2025Q3的自产煤单位毛利，导致多数煤企的自产煤业务单位毛利环比下降。同 时，动力煤企依靠稳定的产量和成本压降，并通过煤电联营贡献电力盈利，使得整体的盈利情况依然环 比上升。炼焦煤企的季度长协机制，使其Q2、Q3均价大体持平，并未完全体现出炼焦煤期货端价格大 幅回升的积极作用，但随着现货中枢更长期保持相对高位，炼焦煤季度长协有望在四季度迎来进一步上 涨。预计随着煤价传导落地，煤企2025Q4业绩将延续改善趋势。 供紧需增，冬季煤价有望保持强势 板块Q3收入环比积极，动力煤企归母净利润环比增速优于炼焦煤企 ...

投资建议：周期与红利双逻辑，四主线布局 煤炭股双逻辑之一：周期弹性。当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供 了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供需基本 面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火 电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程度更高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现 出更大的价格弹性。煤炭股双逻辑之二：稳健红利。多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿，中 报仍有6家上市煤企发布中期分红方案（中国神华/山西焦煤/陕西煤业/上海能源/兖矿能源/中 煤能源）。资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上 的脉冲，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧， 已到布局时点。四主线精选煤炭个股将受益：主线一，周期逻辑：动力煤的【晋控煤业、兖 矿能源】，冶金煤的【平煤股份、淮北矿业、潞安环能】；主线二，红利逻辑：【中国神 华、中煤能源（分红潜力）、陕西煤业】；主线三，多元化铝弹性：【神火股份、电投能 源】；主线四，成长逻辑：【新集能源、广汇能源】。 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小涨，截 ...

Economic Information - The price of upstream storage chips has surged, leading several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, to suspend their storage chip purchases for the current quarter. Many manufacturers have inventory levels below two months, with some DRAM inventories dropping to less than three weeks. They are hesitant to accept price quotes from original manufacturers (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) that approach a 50% increase. The demand for storage chips has surged due to the AI model wave, with data centers willing to pay higher prices for procurement, often exceeding prices offered to smartphone manufacturers by over 30% for the same products [2][8]. - The Ningbo Shipping Exchange reported that the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) closed at 999.7 points, down 5.1% from the previous week. Among 21 shipping routes, 6 saw an increase in freight index, while 14 experienced a decline, and 1 remained stable. In major ports along the "Maritime Silk Road," 5 ports saw an increase in freight index, while 11 ports saw a decrease [2][8]. Company Alerts - China Fortune Land Development has seen a cumulative increase of 256% over 14 trading days, significantly higher than the industry and Shanghai Composite Index, and is now under suspension for verification [4]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) has its third-largest shareholder, Huang Shilin, planning to transfer 1% of shares, valued at approximately 18.4 billion yuan [4]. - Other companies, including Baida Group, Chahua Co., and Yifeng Pharmacy, have announced plans for share reductions by various stakeholders, with reductions ranging from 0.0176% to 3% [4][8]. Overseas Alerts - The U.S. stock market saw mixed results last Friday, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.05%, and Nasdaq up 0.13%. Notable tech stocks had varied performances, with Oracle rising over 2% and Netflix dropping over 3% [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a travel advisory, warning citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to deteriorating safety conditions and recent incidents involving Chinese nationals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management" has led to a significant increase in the use of various market value management tools by listed companies, including cash dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and equity incentives, to enhance investment value and return to investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Value Management Tools - Cash dividends and share buybacks have become frequently used tools in the market value management toolbox, with companies encouraged to establish clear mechanisms for share repurchase and to develop and disclose medium- to long-term dividend plans [1][2]. - As of October 31, 2023, 1,195 companies in China's stock market have announced 1,525 share buyback plans for 2025, with a total buyback amount of 92.3 billion yuan, of which 36% was funded by self-owned capital and 26% was for cancellation [2]. - The total cash dividend amount across the market reached 734.9 billion yuan, with 89 companies distributing over 1 billion yuan in dividends within the year [2]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The past year has seen a vibrant M&A market, particularly in the "hard technology" sector, with notable cases such as the acquisition of 72.33% of Chip Alliance's shares and the merger of Haiguang Information with Zhongke Shuguang [3]. - State-owned enterprises are also actively engaging in professional integration, exemplified by China Shenhua's plan to consolidate 13 energy companies and Guotai Junan's merger with Haitong Securities [3]. - Policy support has been a key driver for the active M&A market, with various reforms and guidelines aimed at enhancing the efficiency and vitality of mergers and acquisitions [3]. Group 3: Equity Incentives - Equity incentives have been highlighted as a significant market value management tool, with companies encouraged to establish long-term incentive mechanisms [4][5]. - By mid-2023, nearly 3,500 listed companies had implemented equity incentive or employee stock ownership plans, representing 64% of all A-share listed companies [5]. - The recognition of equity incentives as a market value management strategy has deepened, with more companies expected to adopt these tools to enhance long-term value [5].

中国神华 20251114 摘要 中国神华前三季度净利润 144 亿元，同比下降 6.2%，但第三季度煤炭 业务产销量实现 2025 年以来首次同比增长，显示复苏迹象。 商品煤前三季度产量 12.5 亿吨，同比下降 0.4%；销量 3.17 亿吨，同 比下降 8.14%。年度长协和月度长协价格分别下降 8.1%和 22.4%，但 单位成本下降 7.5%，缓解了价格下跌的影响。 发电业务方面，总发电量和售电量虽有下降，但燃煤价格下降使得度电 毛利率提升 3 个百分点，利润同比增长 20%至 101 亿元。 运输业务周转量微降 0.3%，但单位运输价格上涨 1.21%，利润总额同 比上升 1.5%。港口业务毛利率因成本降低而增长，航运业务则因货运 量减少导致毛利率下滑。 化工产品销售量同比增长 13.97%，营收同比增长 6.1%，但毛利率仅 为 7.1%，化工板块盈利能力有待提升。 通过并购国家能源集团及西部能源相关资产，中国神华实现了产能扩张， 预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润有望稳步增长，并维持稳定分红。 维持对中国神华的强烈推荐评级，建议投资者关注其 A 股（601,088） 与 H 股（1,088 ...

联系人 ： 徐萌 S0350125070001 xum02@ghzq.com.cn | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/11/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 6.0% | 13.0% | 3.7% | | 沪深 300 | 2.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：煤价强势上涨，本周突破 800 元/吨（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-11-10 《煤炭开采行业 2025 年三季报综述：柳暗花明又 一村，Q3 煤企业绩环比改善显著（推荐）*煤炭开 采*陈晨》——2025-11-05 《煤炭开采行业周报：煤矿生产低位运行，持续看 好冬季旺季行情（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2025-11-02 2025 年 11 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张益 S0350124100016 zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn 投资要点: 供给端：供给进一步 ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 静待旺季日耗提升，后续煤价依然稳中偏强 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/11/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 6.0% | 13.0% | 3.7% | | 沪深 300 | 2.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：煤价强势上涨，本周突破 800 元/吨（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-11-10 《煤炭开采行业 2 ...