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凯莱英(002821):业绩符合市场预期 化学大分子业务将为25年贡献业绩弹性

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but there are signs of marginal improvement and potential for future growth driven by its chemical macromolecule business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% [1]. - The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, was 850 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 59.63% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The small molecule API business generated revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.85% year-on-year increase when excluding large orders [3]. - The chemical macromolecule CDMO segment saw a revenue increase of 13.26% in 2024, with a project completion count of 227 [4]. - The company delivered 48 commercial projects in 2024, generating revenue of 2.804 billion yuan, with a 4.16% increase when excluding large orders [3]. Order Growth and Future Outlook - The company signed new orders that increased by approximately 20% year-on-year, with a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, representing over a 20% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The chemical macromolecule business is expected to double its revenue in 2025, contributing significantly to overall performance [4]. - The company anticipates that the small molecule PPQ projects will reach 12 in 2025, laying a foundation for future growth [3]. Investment Considerations - The company is positioned as a leading small molecule CDMO supplier, focusing on integrated services in intermediates, APIs, and formulations [5]. - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 6.648 billion, 7.615 billion, and 8.809 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS adjustments [5].