证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark a 2025 10 26 年 月 日 医药生物 十年维度看，CDMO 的投资节奏是怎样演变的？【周专题&周观 点】【总第 419 期】 一、当周（10.20-10.24）回顾与周专题： 当周（10.20-10.24）申万医药指数环比+0.58%，跑输创业板指数，跑输沪深 300 指数。本周周报，我们探讨了十年维度看，CDMO 的投资节奏演变。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场整体向上，上证突破十年新高，科技引领反弹。医药整体 震荡。医药看结构，创新药涨幅有限，个别主题和个股逻辑驱动为主，部分业绩 票、流感主题、机器人相关标的表现较好。 2、原因分析：本周市场向上，科技反攻，医药热度又下来了点。创新药在上周 5 个 BD 和周末 ESMO 数据还有信达百亿以上美金 BD 后，仍然没有很好表现，我们 认为不是产业逻辑的问题，还是在消化前期累计的交易问题，不改变中长期产业 逻辑，继续看好。这周以个别主题和个股逻辑驱动为主，业绩期业绩驱动的业绩 票，全市场映射的机器人逻辑，以及日本流感爆发带动国内带来的流感主题表现。 其他个股逻辑为主。我们认为创新药板块筹码 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increased by 0.6% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.9% and the Wind All A (excluding financials and petrochemicals) increased by 3.7% [4][6]. - The pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation stands at 30.4 times earnings, ranking 9th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [4][8]. - Significant collaborations and clinical trial results were reported, including a $11.4 billion global strategic partnership between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical, which includes a $1.2 billion upfront payment [5][13]. - Key clinical trial results presented at the 2025 ESMO conference showed promising outcomes for several drugs, indicating advancements in treatment efficacy for various cancers [14][18][19]. Market Performance - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, with notable increases in medical devices (+0.2%), medical consumables (+1.7%), and medical research outsourcing (+5.5%), while traditional Chinese medicine and other biological products saw declines [4][8]. - The report also notes that 99 A-share pharmaceutical companies released their Q3 2025 earnings, with a total revenue of 94.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.3% year-on-year increase [20][22]. Key Events - The report mentions that Bairui Tianheng has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and is in the process of listing its H-shares [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2025 ESMO conference, where several companies presented significant clinical data, enhancing their market visibility and potential investment attractiveness [14][17][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drug sectors and companies with improving performance in medical devices and upstream sectors, including companies like Hengrui Medicine, Changchun High-tech, and Mindray Medical [5][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Biotech Index (970038) closed at 2259.94 points, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 17.182 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.24% on October 23 [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Biotech Index had 26 stocks rising and 22 stocks falling on the day, with Huace Testing leading the gainers at a 3.03% increase, while Jingxin Pharmaceutical led the decliners with a 4.17% drop [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the Biotech Index include: - Mindray Medical (13.81% weight, latest price 221.80, market cap 268.92 billion yuan) [1] - Changchun High-tech (5.41% weight, latest price 117.65, market cap 47.994 billion yuan) [1] - Kanglong Chemical (4.66% weight, latest price 31.44, market cap 55.906 billion yuan) [1] - Others include Shishi Yushang, Biao Ge Pharmaceutical, and more, all within the biotech and related sectors [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The Biotech Index constituents experienced a net outflow of 502 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 354 million yuan [3] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Deep Technology: Main fund net inflow of 82.5949 million yuan, retail net inflow of 21.4 million yuan [3] - Mindray Medical: Main fund net inflow of 66.9479 million yuan, retail net outflow of 3.6088 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Muyuan Foods and Kanglong Chemical also showed varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3]

Core Insights - The CXO (Contract X Organization) model allows pharmaceutical companies to outsource drug development, production, or sales to specialized institutions, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs while sharing the benefits of pharmaceutical innovation [1][2][4] - The global CXO market is projected to reach $196.6 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 14.0% from 2021 to 2025, while the Chinese market is expected to grow to 247.7 billion yuan, with a remarkable CAGR of 26.56% from 2020 to 2025 [1][7][9] - Recent policies in China, such as the MAH (Marketing Authorization Holder) system, are optimizing resource allocation and encouraging innovation, providing a robust support system for the CXO industry [5][10] CXO Industry Overview - CXO encompasses various outsourcing services including CRO (Contract Research Organization), CMO (Contract Manufacturing Organization), CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization), and CSO (Contract Sales Organization) [2][4] - The CXO industry is characterized by a full-process collaboration model that integrates services from early research to commercial production, significantly improving client R&D efficiency [4][10] Policy Analysis - Recent Chinese policies have created a favorable environment for the CXO industry, promoting innovation and optimizing the pharmaceutical supply chain [5][10] - The implementation of the MAH system has separated drug marketing and production licenses, enhancing specialization and reducing redundant investments [5][10] Global Market Trends - The global CXO market is experiencing rapid expansion, driven by increased R&D investments from innovative pharmaceutical companies [6][9] - By 2025, the global CRO market is expected to reach approximately $98 billion, while the CDMO market is projected to reach $99 billion, indicating strong growth potential [6][9] Chinese Market Dynamics - China's CXO market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size increase from 76.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 247.7 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a strong domestic market vitality [7][9] - In the first eight months of 2025, domestic innovative drug financing reached $7.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89%, highlighting the growing investment interest in the sector [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese CXO industry features a clear competitive hierarchy, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical expanding their market share through comprehensive service capabilities [10] - The first-tier companies are establishing a global delivery system, while second-tier companies are focusing on niche areas to build competitive advantages [10] Future Development Trends - The CXO industry is expected to evolve around three main directions: technological advancement, global operations, and ecosystem integration [10][12] - Leading companies will focus on high-tech areas such as ADC and gene therapy, while also enhancing their global operational resilience [12][13] - The integration of AI in drug development will drive new service models and reshape the competitive landscape, with larger firms consolidating their positions while smaller firms must specialize to survive [14]

Core Insights - The Biotech Economy Index (970038) closed at 2261.4 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 16.635 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.19% [1] - Among the index constituents, 19 stocks rose while 30 stocks fell, with Meihao Medical leading the gainers at 6.53% and Prolo Pharma leading the decliners at 5.41% [1] Index Performance - The Biotech Economy Index experienced a decline of 0.81% on the reporting day [1] - The total market capitalization of the index constituents was significant, with major players like Mindray Medical valued at 266.98 billion yuan [1] Top Constituents - The top ten constituents of the Biotech Economy Index include: - Mindray Medical (13.81% weight, 220.20 yuan, -1.51% change, 2669.80 billion yuan market cap) [1] - Changchun High-tech (5.41% weight, 119.11 yuan, -0.97% change, 485.89 billion yuan market cap) [1] - Kanglong Chemical (4.66% weight, 30.96 yuan, +0.29% change, 550.53 billion yuan market cap) [1] - Other notable constituents include Taige Pharmaceutical, Muyuans, and Aimeike, all within the biotech and healthcare sectors [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Biotech Economy Index constituents totaled 0.893 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 0.75 billion yuan [1] - Specific stocks like Kanglong Chemical and Meihao Medical experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交重(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301293 | 三博脑科 | 57.19 | -4.67% | 11.85万 | 6.89 Z | | 301201 | 诚达药业 | 33.98 | -4.50% | 6.68万 | 2.30亿 | | 688131 | XD皓元医 | 79.90 | -2.07% | 3.07万 | 2.46 Z | | 301333 | 诺恩格 | 49.66 | -2.05% | 1.38万 | 6893.81万 | | 603127 | 昭衍新药 | 32.67 | -1.83% | 11.93万 | 3.95 Z | | 000710 | 贝瑞基因 | 13.00 | -1.66% | 8.30万 | 1.09亿 | | 301257 | 普蕊斯 | 43.04 | -1.51% | 1.24万 | 5407.35万 | | 603456 | 九洲药业 | 19.04 | -1.50% | 18.31万 | 3.50亿 | | 002821 | 凯莱 ...

Core Points - The Bioeconomy Index (970038) closed at 2262.82 points, up 0.08%, with a trading volume of 19.253 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.3% [1] - Among the index constituents, 27 stocks rose, with Iwubio leading at a 10.07% increase, while 22 stocks fell, with Yifan Pharmaceutical leading the decline at 4.45% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Bioeconomy Index include: - Mindray Medical (sz300760) with a weight of 13.81%, latest price at 223.47, down 0.90%, and a market cap of 270.944 billion yuan [1] - Changchun High-tech (sz000661) with a weight of 5.41%, latest price at 121.12, down 0.12%, and a market cap of 49.409 billion yuan [1] - Kanglong Chemical (sz300759) with a weight of 4.66%, latest price at 30.56, up 1.76%, and a market cap of 54.342 billion yuan [1] - Shizhu Aoshi (sz002252) with a weight of 4.52%, latest price at 6.67, up 0.15%, and a market cap of 44.275 billion yuan [1] - Biao Ge Shi Medicine (sz300347) with a weight of 4.23%, latest price at 54.08, up 0.95%, and a market cap of 46.564 billion yuan [1] - Shenzhen Technology (sz000021) with a weight of 4.08%, latest price at 27.24, down 0.58%, and a market cap of 42.693 billion yuan [1] - Muyuan Foods (sz002714) with a weight of 3.66%, latest price at 49.48, down 2.25%, and a market cap of 270.298 billion yuan [1] - Aimeike (sz300896) with a weight of 3.44%, latest price at 167.03, down 1.49%, and a market cap of 50.542 billion yuan [1] - Kailai Ying (sz002821) with a weight of 3.23%, latest price at 105.80, up 2.72%, and a market cap of 38.151 billion yuan [1] - Color Egg Therapy (sz002223) with a weight of 3.19%, latest price at 36.65, down 1.24%, and a market cap of 36.741 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Summary - The Bioeconomy Index constituents experienced a net outflow of 599 million yuan from institutional investors and 215 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 814 million yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Kanglong Chemical saw a net inflow of 74.766 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 49.703 million yuan [3] - Hualan Biological had a net inflow of 42.164 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 33.5328 million yuan [3] - Lepu Medical had a net inflow of 40.927 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 32.1814 million yuan [3] - Kailai Ying had a net inflow of 38.867 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 16.4533 million yuan [3] - Iwubio had a net inflow of 23.192 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 5.9208 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable demand outlook for the CDMO industry, with new growth points emerging from weight loss drugs, peptide drugs, and GLP-1 drugs, leading to a positive investment sentiment towards the sector. Core Insights - The geopolitical risks in the pharmaceutical industry have decreased, allowing investors to focus more on the performance, order momentum, and delivery capabilities of CDMO companies [1][4] - Chinese CDMO companies are actively expanding capacity and investing in new technologies, with firms like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Biotech accelerating overseas capacity construction to balance cost-effectiveness and maintain profit margins [1][5] - The rise of Chinese biotech firms is increasing global competition, emphasizing the importance of technical capabilities and execution quality [1][4] Summary by Sections Demand and Growth Opportunities - Overall demand in the CDMO sector remains robust, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year, particularly driven by weight loss drugs, peptide drugs, and GLP-1 drugs [2] - ADC (antibody-drug conjugates) and bispecific antibodies are also showing new demand in the R&D sector, indicating future growth potential [2] Capacity Expansion and Profitability - The trend of overseas capacity expansion is becoming increasingly important, with many Asian companies prioritizing this despite high construction costs and long cycles due to its flexibility and risk reduction advantages [4][6] - Companies are shifting high-automation production processes overseas while leveraging domestic operational advantages to achieve cost-effectiveness [6] Company Strategies - WuXi AppTec plans to accelerate the construction of small molecule factories in Singapore and the U.S., with the Singapore facility expected to be operational by January 2027 [5] - Kelun Biotech is expanding its capacity from 30,000 liters to 44,000 liters, with multiple clinical projects progressing to mid-late stages [8] - BoroPharma is focusing on expansion through acquisitions rather than starting from scratch, utilizing shared services for operational flexibility [5] Market Trends and Policy Impact - The U.S. MFN pricing policy has had a limited initial impact, primarily affecting Medicaid, with overall drug price effects being minimal [3][10] - Tariff policies mainly target patented drugs, with manageable impacts on Chinese CDMO companies, especially those with established U.S. facilities [12] - The Chinese biotech pharma sector is performing strongly, driven by innovative pipelines and rising valuations, with significant interest in metabolic and autoimmune diseases [14]

中新网天津10月17日电 (记者 王君妍)记者17日从天津海关获悉，凯莱英医药集团(天津)股份有限公司、 凯莱英生命科学技术(天津)有限公司、天津凯莱英制药有限公司等3家高新技术企业近日顺利完成网上 备案，成为天津关区首批通过"真空包装等高新技术货物布控查验智慧网备平台"(以下简称"真空包装网 备平台")备案的企业。 据了解，真空包装等高新技术货物布控查验模式是海关总署为促外贸稳增长，优化营商环境，切实解决 高新技术企业进出口环节痛点、堵点问题，针对真空包装、防光包装、防尘包装、恒温储存等不宜在普 通环境下拆箱查验的高新技术货物出台的措施。高新技术企业应用该模式后，在进口环节查验时可以将 部分口岸查验指令转移至目的地实施，在出口环节查验时可以仅执行外形查验或机检查验，从而避免开 拆高新技术货物包装造成货损。 近期，海关总署"真空包装网备平台"上线试运行，企业通过国际贸易单一窗口的"真空包装网备平台"功 能模块，即可在线申请真空包装布控查验模式。企业申请材料实现全流程网上提交、在线审核，审批进 度实时查询，进一步提升办理效率。 凯莱英医药集团(天津)股份有限公司、凯莱英生命科学技术(天津)有限公司、天津凯莱英制 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Healthcare CDMOs Industry Overview - The focus is on the Contract Research Organization (CRO) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sectors, particularly in China - Investor interest has increased due to strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, with a 27% growth compared to a 15% growth in the MXCN index [1][2] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Earnings Growth Expectations**: - Earnings growth for 3Q25 may moderate due to a high base effect, but sequential improvement is anticipated as projects progress and new capacity comes online [2][3] - Forecasted sales growth for major players: WuXi Apptec (+10%), Asymchem (+19%), and Pharmaron (+8%) compared to their 2Q25 growth rates of +20%, +28%, and +14% respectively [3] 2. **New Order Momentum**: - New order momentum is expected to remain resilient, supported by CMO projects and emerging modalities such as GLP-1/peptide capacity and Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) [2][8] - Anticipated improvements in 2026 as funding conditions recover following interest rate cuts [2] 3. **Policy and Geopolitical Factors**: - Ongoing policy uncertainty, particularly related to the US Biosecure Act, is likely to drive near-term share price volatility [2][11] - The Senate passed the FY26 NDAA with the US Biosecure Act included, which may impact companies identified as Chinese military entities operating in the US [11][12] 4. **Operational Excellence**: - Companies are focusing on operational excellence and technological advancements to secure client orders amidst geopolitical uncertainties [2][11] 5. **Capex and Investment**: - Major Chinese CDMO players are expected to maintain their FY25 capital expenditure budgets, continuing investments in peptide, ADCs, and global expansion [3][6] Additional Important Insights - **Backlog and Order Growth**: - WuXi Apptec's backlog growth in peptide and small molecule oral GLP-1 is a key focus area, along with Asymchem's order growth from peptides and ADCs [8] - The recovery in early-stage R&D remains mixed, with expectations of improvement in 2026 driven by funding recovery [8] - **Valuation and Price Targets**: - Target prices for companies such as Asymchem, Pharmaron, WuXi Apptec, WuXi Biologics, and WuXi XDC have been adjusted based on market conditions and company performance [20][23][24][25] - **Risks**: - Key risks include sensitivity to loss of key clients, pricing pressure, regulatory risks, and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China [21][22][23][24][25] - **Expansion Plans**: - Chinese CDMOs are actively expanding operations overseas, with significant investments in the US and Europe [19] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare CDMO industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks.