Northeast Securities(SZ:000686) 智通财经网·2025-04-01 06:42Core Viewpoint - The coal prices are expected to decline in Q1 2025 due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with a potential recovery in April driven by high-cost coal mines and imported coal being impacted [1][3] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is projected to drop from 765 CNY/ton to 665 CNY/ton, while coking coal at Jingtang Port is expected to decrease from 1520 CNY/ton to 1380 CNY/ton [1] - Total supply in 2025 is anticipated to increase by 1.9%, with domestic raw coal production rising by 2.1% and zero growth in imported coal [2] - Total demand is expected to grow by 1.5%, with specific sectors like thermal power and coke seeing increases of 2% and decreases in cement and chemical coal consumption by 5% and 1% respectively [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - After three months of significant price declines, coal prices have fallen below annual contract prices, indicating strong support for future price increases [3] - The average price for thermal coal in 2025 is estimated to be 741 CNY/ton, while coking coal is projected at 1794 CNY/ton, suggesting that short-term prices may have already overshot [2] - A rebound in coal prices is expected in April, with potential fluctuations until October, driven by seasonal demand and inventory adjustments [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The average price of thermal coal is projected to rise from a historical low of 420 CNY/ton in 2015 to around 620 CNY/ton over the next 10-15 years, while coking coal prices are expected to stabilize at around 1240 CNY/ton [4] - For a new upward cycle in coal prices to commence, strong policy support is necessary, including demand-side stimulation for real estate and infrastructure, as well as supply-side measures like production limits and import restrictions [5]