金价突破历史新高：三重驱动力下的避险狂欢

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $3135 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in the global economic order driven by geopolitical tensions, changing monetary policies, and structural supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices have increased over 19% since the beginning of 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, with key price milestones being surpassed in late March to early April [3]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted from caution to enthusiasm, as evidenced by substantial inflows into Asian gold ETFs, indicating a surge in regional risk aversion [4]. - The COMEX gold futures market shows a high level of speculative long positions, with 67% of open interest being held by speculative traders, indicating increased volatility [5]. Volatility Indicators - The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has surpassed 25, reaching a 12-month high, signaling that investors are preparing for potential significant price fluctuations due to upcoming policy changes and geopolitical events [6]. Driving Forces - Geopolitical risk premium accounts for 40% of the current gold price surge, influenced by trade tensions and rising inflation expectations, with significant impacts from U.S. tariffs and Middle Eastern conflicts [7][8]. - Expectations of a shift in monetary policy contribute 35% to the gold price dynamics, as markets anticipate potential interest rate cuts and a decline in the dollar's dominance [9][10]. - Structural supply-demand imbalances make up 25% of the driving factors, with central banks increasing gold purchases and mining output facing constraints [11][12][13]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term volatility is anticipated as the U.S. tariff decision approaches, with potential profit-taking by speculative traders [14]. - Long-term support for gold prices is expected from ongoing de-dollarization trends and structural supply-demand issues, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price increase to $3300 by the end of 2025, and possibly reaching $4200 under certain conditions [15]. - Investors are advised to adopt a multi-faceted strategy to balance risks, particularly in gold mining stocks, as the geopolitical and economic landscape continues to evolve [16].