万科A(000002)：债务压力阶段性缓释 料全年业绩仍缩量承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a loss of 49.5 billion yuan for 2024, slightly exceeding previous profit warnings, with a revenue decline of 26% to 343.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a 30% drop in development settlement volume [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 26% to 343.2 billion yuan, with a development settlement volume decline of 30% [1] - Pre-tax gross margin fell by 1.6 percentage points to 12.6%, while post-tax gross margin dropped to 4.8% due to high land appreciation tax from large transactions [1] - The company recognized inventory impairment of 7.2 billion yuan and credit impairment of 26.4 billion yuan on other receivables, alongside an investment loss of 2.9 billion yuan from off-balance sheet projects [1] Debt Management - Interest-bearing debt increased by 13% to 361.3 billion yuan, mainly due to the consolidation of a commercial entity and new operational property loans [2] - The financing structure improved, with bank loans rising to 71.4% of total debt, and new financing costs decreased by 37 basis points to 3.54% [2] - The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided support totaling 8.3 billion yuan through personnel adjustments and liquidity injections [2] Development Strategy - The company aims to revitalize underperforming assets, with a focus on existing resources, acquiring 13 new projects worth 5.6 billion yuan, primarily in key cities like Shanghai and Chengdu [3] - Sales are expected to decline by 35% in 2024, with a 41% drop in the first quarter [3] - The company plans to deliver 182,000 units in 2024, with 112,000 units expected to be completed this year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted to -28.3 billion yuan and -17.2 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price trades at 0.48 times and 0.54 times the projected price-to-book ratios for 2025 and 2026 [4] - The target price has been reduced by 6% to 8.3 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price [4]