作者 时间 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 风险出清格局重塑 政策聚焦长效发展 ——2025 年地产债市场回顾与 2026 年展望 核心观点 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 唐晓琳 副总经理 曹源源 部门执行总监 冯琳 首席宏观分析师 王青 2025 年房地产市场回顾：2025 年房地产市场延续调整，下半年市 场加速下滑。12月70城二手房和新房价格同比分别下跌6.1%和3.1%， 全年商品房销售面积同比下降 8.7%，投资端收缩态势更为严峻，全 年开发投资完成额同比下降 17.2%。在市场持续调整背景下，2025 年 房企融资环境无实质性改善，年末万科展期事件推升行业风险溢价， 但年内房企债务重组工作取得较大进展，对相关企业资产负债表修复 具有积极意义。 2026 年 2 月 10 日 2026年房地产市场展望：2026年房地产政策将延续边际宽松基调。 其中，需求端政策核心在于引导实际房贷利率下行，供给端则通过控 增量、去存量，共同推动供需结构优化。2026 年房地产支持政策大 幅加码的可能性较低，这意味着房地产市场大概率会延续调整，但调 整幅度会有所收窄。从销售端来看，若政策层面能够有效引导实际房 贷 ...

据悉，2024年1月，富普新材于启动上市辅导，彼时辅导机构为东方证券承销保荐，其上市辅导工作进展报告经历第八期。 富普新材成立于2016年，注册资本4.3亿元。公司是一家专注预拌普通及特种混凝土、装配式建筑部品部件及混凝土预制构件、蒸压 加气混凝土板及砌块、建筑用砂浆、水泥、外加剂等产业链延伸产品的，集研发、生产、销售为一体的综合性绿色建材制造商。 富普新材合作方涵盖招商蛇口、中核集团、中国铁建、中国水电、龙湖、万科、金茂集团等大型央企与房企，2022年营业收入达 28.5864亿元，位列2023年重庆民营企业100强第81位。 相关公司：万科sz000002 瑞财经 王敏 2月24日，重庆富普新材料科技股份有限公司（以下简称"富普新材"）在重庆证监局启动上市辅导，拟A股上市，辅导 机构为浙商证券。 ...

王石早年的拐点论在2008年金融危机中显出先见。 那时候市场一片火热，房价年均涨超10%，很多房企忙着扩张土地储备。 王石却公开说房价上涨势头快到头，推动万科清库存降价卖房。 王石这些预言准确，源于对周期的把握。2008年后市场调整，2009年房价回调，万科销售领先。 2013年警告后，2014年增速放缓，万科全球布局优。2016年泡沫提醒后，2017年房价收窄，万科数字化提效。 2018年后，万科渡过2019至2021年波动。多次命中靠经济周期洞察。 王石不盲从，基于数据和历史经验。房企学他，注重现金流和风险控。 结果危机一来，全国房价短期回调，万科靠现金流稳住了阵脚。其他企业高负债拿地，后期资金链吃紧。 王石的判断基于全球经济周期，避免了盲目跟风。这次预言让万科在行业低谷中领先。 转到2013年，王石又通过媒体提醒房价泡沫风险。他拿日本90年代地产崩盘举例，说中国需防类似路径。 那年土地成交金额破纪录，一线城市房价涨15%。王石建议房企转租赁业务，优化资产。万科跟着调整，负债率低于平均水平。 次年市场增速放缓，二三线房价跌。王石的国际视角帮万科避开高价地陷阱。 行业数据显示，那时许多企业债务上扬，王石的预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed real estate companies are facing significant losses in 2025, with 74% of the 77 companies that released earnings forecasts expecting to report losses totaling approximately 208.2-209.4 billion yuan, indicating a deep industry adjustment [2][4]. Group 1: Loss Forecasts - Among the companies, Vanke is expected to incur the largest loss of 820 billion yuan, marking the highest loss in A-share real estate history, a 65.7% increase from 2024 [4]. - Other companies with substantial losses include China Fortune Land Development (160-240 billion yuan), Greenland Holdings (160-190 billion yuan), and China Overseas Land & Investment (130-155 billion yuan) [4][5]. - The overall decline in sales volume and prices is reflected in the financial metrics, with a reported 8.7% decrease in new housing sales area and a 12.6% drop in sales revenue [5]. Group 2: Common Challenges - The primary reasons for the losses include weak sales leading to reduced profit recognition, as profits from real estate sales are recognized with a lag [6]. - Despite diversification efforts, companies remain heavily reliant on real estate development, which has been underperforming during the industry downturn, limiting their ability to offset losses from core operations [6]. - Asset impairment provisions have surged due to declining real estate prices, with Vanke reporting over 50 billion yuan in impairments, significantly impacting overall losses [6]. Group 3: Notable Exceptions - Kaisa Group stands out as a positive example, projecting a net profit of 300-350 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to debt restructuring gains of 680-700 billion yuan [7]. - The company has shifted its focus from traditional real estate development to light asset operations, including property services and commercial management, to enhance resilience against market fluctuations [7]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The year 2025 is seen as a critical period for the real estate sector, with ongoing adjustments expected to lead to a gradual recovery starting in 2026, supported by favorable policies and market improvements [11][12]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to stabilize the financing environment and stimulate demand, which may help quality companies regain market share while weaker firms face potential elimination [11][12].

Recent Events - In the second quarter of 2026, the company will face a significant debt maturity peak, totaling approximately 6.5 billion yuan, with the next tranche of RMB bonds maturing in April. This upcoming debt requires the company to secure funding for repayment, indicating ongoing liquidity pressure [1]. Company Status - Certain bonds, such as "21 Vanke 02" and "21 Vanke 04," among seven others, will be transferred as specific bonds starting from February 6, 2026. The pricing method will shift from net price to full price, and the investor scope will be limited to professional institutional investors. This measure is part of the company's debt management strategy aimed at alleviating short-term liquidity pressure [2]. Financial Status - The year 2026 is viewed as a critical year for the company's debt repayment pressure, as it must address the concentrated maturity of public market debts. The ability to mitigate risks will depend on factors such as sales recovery, asset disposal progress, and support from shareholders. Additionally, the company disclosed an expanded loss in its 2025 performance forecast, although its operational service business remains stable. The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided over 30 billion yuan in loan support. The company has stated it will focus on asset optimization and debt resolution, but operational challenges remain severe [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Vanke A is closely monitoring changes in the real estate market across the country and in Hong Kong, and is implementing flexible strategies to respond to these changes [1] - The company's operations in Hong Kong are reported to be stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A has been actively involved in the Shenzhen real estate market since 1988, offering a range of well-received products and services to enhance residential experiences and asset values [1]. Group 1: Company Development - The company has launched several successful projects over the past 38 years, including City Garden, Four Seasons Flower City, Golden Home, Fifth Garden, Vanke City, Tianqin Bay, and the Zhen series [1]. - Vanke A has developed comprehensive projects such as Vanke Cloud City and Vanke Tianyu, contributing to the overall development of the area [1]. Group 2: Community Services - In addition to residential property development, the company operates community services and commercial projects through Vanke Cloud, aimed at improving living experiences and asset values [1]. - The company utilizes the "Easy Selection Housing" mini-program for investors to inquire about its development projects in Shenzhen [1]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - As a real estate enterprise rooted in Shenzhen, the company continuously strives to adapt to local market conditions and policy directions, optimizing products and services based on customer housing needs [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Vanke A clarified on an interactive platform that its historical net profit attributable to shareholders can only be used for dividends or retained as equity on the balance sheet, and relevant data can be found in the company's annual reports [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes transparency by directing investors to its annual reports for detailed financial data [1] - The statement highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns through dividends or retention of earnings [1] - The interaction with investors reflects the company's approach to maintaining open communication regarding its financial practices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A's board of directors has been elected, and the qualifications of the four independent directors meet the requirements of domestic and foreign listing rules [1] Group 1 - The newly elected board consists of four independent directors who are fulfilling their responsibilities in accordance with relevant requirements [1] - The independent directors possess expertise in finance, real estate, investment, and technology, contributing constructive suggestions for corporate governance and operational development [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese/HK properties performed strongly overall, especially VNKRLE bonds due to the reported SZ government rescue plan for Vanke. The deflationary pressure in China continued to ease in early 2026, and mild price reflation is expected in 2026, which should improve corporate profitability and support the capital - market performance of materials and cyclical sectors [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the new CHIFEN 7.4 02/13/29 lowered by up to 1.0pt from RO at par. Chinese AMC space was firm, while HK bank T2s BNKEA/NANYAN widened 5 - 6bps, and Chinese TMTs KUAISH/MEITUA widened 2 - 5bps. Higher - beta names FRESHK 26 - 29s/ZHOSHK 28 closed 7 - 13bps wider. EHICAR 27 dropped 2.1pts, and EHICAR 26 closed 0.3pt lower. VNKRLE 27' and 29' surged 8.0 - 8.8pts on the SZ government rescue plan report. LNGFOR 27 - 32s/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 edged 0.1 - 0.4pt higher. Seazen Group raised HKD472.3mn (cUSD60.4mn) through a private share placement. LASUDE 26 rose 1.5pts, NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex gained 0.2 - 0.9pt, and FAEACO 12.814 Perp closed 0.8pt higher. In SE Asian space, PTTGC 31 - 52s widened 1 - 5bps, PTTGC Perps leaked 0.1 - 0.2pt, VLLPM 27 - 29 were down 1.0 - 1.8pts, and SMCGL Perps were 0.1pt higher. In KR space, POHANG/SKBTAM/HYNMTR/LGENSO stabilized. In JP space, there were selling flows on 10yr bank papers, Japanese insurance subs edged 0.1pt firmer, and Yankee AT1s leaked 0.1 - 0.3pt. In the Middle East, BSFRs were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher, and long - end KSAs traded up to 0.4pt higher [2]. - This morning, MEITUA/KUAISH recovered to 3 - 5bps tighter. There was better selling on FRESHKs, FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 1.6pts higher, EHICAR 26 dropped 2.3pts, and ACPM 4.85 Perp/HYSAN 4.85 Perp were 0.6 - 0.8pt lower. VNKRLE 27' and 29' edged 0.1 - 0.2pt higher after yesterday's jump [3]. - In the LGFV space, there was deployment demand from institutions, lifting offers and driving yields tighter. Non - LGFV CNH papers remained afloat due to cross - border account demand [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 | 43.4 | 8.8 | EHICAR 12 09/26/27 | 53.3 | - 2.1 | | VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 | 41.5 | 8.0 | VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 | 51.9 | - 1.8 | | TTMTIN 4.35 06/09/26 | 99.4 | 1.9 | NICAU 9 09/30/30 | 103.4 | - 1.2 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 78.4 | 1.5 | HAOHUA 5 1/2 03/14/48 | 99.9 | - 1.0 | | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 80.9 | 0.9 | VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 | 41.5 | - 1.0 | [5] Marco News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (-0.00%), Dow (-0.13%), and Nasdaq (-0.16%) were lower. The US Jan'26 Nonfarm Payrolls were +130k (higher than the market expectation of +66k), the Unemployment Rate was 4.3% (lower than the forecast of 4.4%), the Average Hourly Earnings in Jan'26 was +0.4% mom (a touch higher than the forecast of +0.3%), and the Crude Oil Inventories was +8.53mn (higher than the market expectation of -0.2mn). UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.52%/3.75%/4.18%/4.82% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - VNKRLE 27' and 29' jumped 8.0 - 8.8pts yesterday and edged 0.1 - 0.2pt higher this morning on the media reports of the SZ government's RMB80bn rescue plan for Vanke, including a RMB20bn share placement. Whether the equity injection is sufficient is under discussion, and the new share issue for a loss - making company needs special regulatory approval. The rescue plan is in line with the view that the central government doesn't want another high - profile default in the property sector. The SZ government, through SZ Metro, has been incentivized to support Vanke's refinancing and maturity extension [7]. - In late Jan'26, Vanke secured consents on onshore bonds. SZ Metro provided a 3 - year loan of up to RMB2.4bn to Vanke. Fitch upgraded China Vanke to CC from RD and affirmed Vanke HK's CC rating [8]. - Vanke can turn to alternative funding channels like long - term operating loans or CBICL - guaranteed bonds secured by IPs. As of Jun'25, the book value of Vanke's IPs was cRMB152bn, and c48% of IPs remained unencumbered, which could secure additional financing of cRMB36bn. The total o/s onshore and offshore bonds of Vanke is cRMB27bn [9][10]. - There are hold recommendations on VNKRLEs. The total outstanding amount of Vanke's USD bonds is USD1.3bn, and the next offshore maturity is VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 in Nov'27. Estimated NPVs for VNKRLEs are low - 60 to high - 70 and high - 50 to low - 70, respectively [11]. China Economy - China's deflationary pressure continued to ease in early 2026. CPI slowed to 0.2% YoY in Jan due to a high base effect and volatile food pricing. Core inflation remained robust driven by durable goods, tourism, and jewellery prices. PPI beat market expectation as price relation in upstream sectors passed through, while PPI of consumer goods remained subdued. Mild price reflation is expected in 2026, and CPI and PPI are expected to reflate from 0.1% and - 2.6% in 2025 to 0.9% and 0.5% in 2026. Further demand - side policies are expected to address the imbalance [12]. - Food price dynamics and base effects drove the shift in headline CPI. CPI YoY moderated to 0.2% in Jan from 0.8% in Dec, slightly below the market expectation. Sequentially, CPI remained flat at 0.2% MoM. Food prices showed weaker - than - normal seasonality, pork prices had 1.2% MoM growth, fresh vegetable prices dropped - 4.8% MoM, and vehicle fuel prices declined 1.2% MoM. Headline CPI is expected to rebound to 1.1% in Feb [13]. - Core CPI remained robust as durable goods price reflated. Core inflation edged down to 0.8% YoY in Jan from 1.2% in Dec due to the base effect, while its MoM expanded to 0.3%. Durable goods saw notable price reflation, other supplies and services including gold jewellery surged 2.7% MoM, service price growth edged up to 0.2% MoM, medical services continued reflation, and housing rent dropped 0.1% MoM [14]. - PPI sustained its recovery momentum. The YoY contraction of PPI narrowed to - 1.4% in Jan from - 1.9% in Dec, beating market expectations. The MoM growth reached 0.4%, the highest in 28 months. The extraction sector dropped 1.7% MoM, raw materials and processing sectors rose 0.7% and 0.5% MoM, AI - related and anti - involution sectors saw price increases, while downstream sectors remained subdued [15][16]. Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline today [19][20]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 72 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB50bn. Month - to - date, 858 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB690bn, a 615.7% yoy increase. Sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China slumped 18.9% yoy in Jan'26. First Pacific's Meralco will spend USD4.65bn on network upgrades and service expansion. Fosun - owned insurer weighs Lisbon listing at more than USD3.6bn valuation [21]. Company - Specific News - Seazen Group raised HKD472.3mn (cUSD60.4mn) through a private share placement to help repay FTLNHD 4.5 05/02/26 [26]. - Medco Energi Internasional's arm was awarded the operatorship of Cendramas offshore field in Malaysia by Petronas [26]. - Moody's affirmed Meituan's Baa1 ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable due to competition in the food delivery business [26]. - Petron Malaysian unit flagged a potential financial hit due to tropical storm Senyar [26]. - Petronas launched a bidding round for nine exploration blocks across Malaysia [26]. - Samsung Heavy won a USD321mn deal to build two containerships for an African buyer [26]. - AIIB will provide up to USD250mn on - lending facility to Shriram Finance [26]. - Santos flagged a USD137mn impairment loss in 2025 [26]. - West China Cement settled tender offer for WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26, with USD51.976mn remaining outstanding [26].