Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Greentown China for 2025/2026 from 3 billion/3.2 billion to 1.2 billion/1.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -24%/+30% [1] - The current stock price corresponds to 0.7/0.7 times the 2025/2026 P/B ratio, while the target price has been raised by 13% to HKD 13.0, indicating a 15% upside potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Greentown China's 2024 revenue increased by 21% to 158.5 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.2 percentage points to 12.8% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48% to 1.6 billion, primarily due to a provision for impairment and fair value losses totaling 4.9 billion, along with a loss of 600 million from joint ventures [2] - The company declared a full-year dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, yielding a dividend rate of 2.9% [2] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - In 2024, Greentown acquired 42 land parcels with a total equity land acquisition amount of 48.4 billion, ranking fourth in the land acquisition list by CRIC [2] - The company focused on core cities, with 92% of new land prices in first and second-tier cities, up from 84% in 2023 [2] - The new land reserves are expected to contribute 32.5 billion in sales, achieving a conversion rate of 30% [2] Group 3: Financial Health and Debt Management - The company maintained a high collection efficiency with a collection rate of 104%, and interest-bearing debt decreased by 6% to 137.2 billion [3] - Key leverage indicators improved, with the pre-debt ratio and net debt ratio declining by 1.1 and 7.2 percentage points to 68.5% and 56.6%, respectively [3] - The average financing cost at the end of 2024 dropped by 40 basis points to 3.9%, marking the first time it fell below 4% [3] Group 4: Management and Strategic Support - The new chairman from the China Communications Construction Company reflects further support for Greentown, potentially enhancing its financial stability and strategic alignment [4] - The company's strong product capability and flexible operational strategies are expected to leverage the group's credit advantages for greater value release [4] Group 5: Sales Performance Outlook - Greentown's total sales for 2024 are projected at 171.8 billion, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% [5] - The company has secured around 200 billion in supply for 2024, with over 80% in first and second-tier cities [5] - If the overall sales rate remains at 62%, the sales could reach 125 billion, with additional contributions from newly acquired land expected to exceed 30 billion [5]
中金：维持绿城中国(03900)“跑赢行业”评级 升目标价至13.0港元