Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to steady sales growth, high land acquisition intensity, and robust self-investment and construction business, with a strong land reserve structure [1] Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company launched 13 self-investment projects with a total saleable area of approximately 290,000 square meters, achieving a sales area of 420,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, while sales amount reached 18.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales area of self-investment projects was 1.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, with a sales amount of 65.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [2] - The cumulative average sales price was 36,333 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [2] Land Acquisition - In May 2025, the company acquired 4 new land parcels in Hangzhou, Xi'an, Foshan, and Zhoushan, adding a total construction area of 450,000 square meters with an equity acquisition amount of approximately 3.9 billion yuan [2] - From January to May 2025, the company acquired 30 new land parcels with a total construction area of 3 million square meters and an equity acquisition amount of 37.3 billion yuan, maintaining a high land acquisition intensity of 84% [2] Financing Activities - The company successfully issued three tranches of medium-term notes totaling 3 billion yuan from January to May 2025, with coupon rates ranging from 4.2% to 4.37%, maintaining low financing costs [2] - In February, the company issued a three-year 500 million USD senior note, which was the largest real estate dollar bond in Asia since 2022, with a subscription multiple of 4.3 times, indicating high market recognition [2]

房地产/房地产开发 绿城中国（03900.HK） 单月销售金额实现增长，拿地强度保持高位 2025 年 06 月 10 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/6/9 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.400 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.780/0.000 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 238.72 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 238.72 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.40 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 25.40 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 40.89 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 绿城中国 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《减值影响净利表现，周转提速，坚 决布局核心城市—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.1 《减值影响业绩表现，拿地强度维持 高 位 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.2.11 《销售拿地表现亮眼，行业排名持续 攀 升 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.10 ——港股公 ...

房地产/房地产开发 绿城中国（03900.HK） 单月销售金额实现增长，拿地强度保持高位 2025 年 06 月 10 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/6/9 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.400 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.780/0.000 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 238.72 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 238.72 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.40 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 25.40 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 40.89 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 绿城中国 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《减值影响净利表现，周转提速，坚 决布局核心城市—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.1 《减值影响业绩表现，拿地强度维持 高 位 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.2.11 《销售拿地表现亮眼，行业排名持续 攀 升 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.10 ——港股公 ...

5月29日，杭州土拍推出1宗商改住地块，总起拍价9.8亿元，起始楼面价16893元/平方米。最终由绿城 中国经过46轮竞价以13.7亿元补仓，溢价率40.33%，成交楼面价23707元/平方米，刷新运河新城核心区 中部楼面价新纪录，中指研究院华东大区常务副总高院生表示，该地块所在片区周边之前限价项目持续 低中签率去化，已具有涨价预期，预计未来新房价格3.6万—4万元/平方米。(人民财讯) ...

绿城中国在港交所公告称，截至2025年4月30日止四个月，绿城集团累计取得总合同销售面积约308万平 方米，总合同销售金额约人民币710亿元。 ...

Sales Performance - In 2024, the company achieved contracted sales of approximately RMB 276.8 billion, ranking third in the industry[15]. - The newly added saleable value ranked fourth in the industry, indicating strong growth momentum[15]. - Total contracted sales area reached approximately 14.09 million sqm, with a total sales amount of approximately RMB 276.8 billion in 2024[103]. - Self-investment projects contributed approximately RMB171.8 billion in sales, with an attributable ratio of 70%[105]. - The sell-through rate for newly launched self-investment properties was 82%, with 64% achieving price premiums at first launches[105]. - The average sell-through rate of existing projects increased by 106% due to customized sales strategies[107]. - The company maintained a leading position in core cities, with 79% of sales from first- and second-tier cities[109]. - Property sales revenue in the Zhejiang area was RMB75.866 billion, accounting for 51.6% of total sales, while Beijing and Shaanxi followed with 11.8% and 9.7% respectively[175]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue reached RMB 131,383,150, an increase from RMB 127,153,071 in 2022, reflecting a growth of approximately 1.8%[52]. - The gross profit for 2023 was RMB 17,072,861, down from RMB 22,020,747 in 2022, representing a decline of approximately 22.5%[52]. - The profit for the year in 2023 was RMB 6,678,139, a decrease from RMB 8,894,964 in 2022, marking a decline of around 25%[52]. - The Group's total revenue for the year reached RMB158.546 billion, a 20.7% increase from RMB131.383 billion in 2023, with property sales contributing 92.7% of the total revenue[172]. - Revenue from property sales amounted to RMB147.017 billion, representing a 21.9% increase from RMB120.58 billion in 2023[173]. - The Group recorded a gross profit of RMB20,225 million, an increase of 18.5% from RMB17,073 million in 2023[185]. - The gross profit margin for the Year was 12.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 13.0% in 2023[186]. - Profit attributable to owners decreased by 48.8% to RMB1.60 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions totaling RMB4.92 billion[101]. Market Conditions - The global economic situation remains challenging, with the real estate industry still in a vulnerable phase of reform, characterized by shrinking market demand and weakening expectations[32]. - Key indicators such as new construction projects and actual funds available for development have sharply declined since 2021, indicating a weakening vitality in the industry[35]. - The average net profit margin in the real estate industry has significantly decreased, marking the gradual end of the "high turnover" model[36]. - The real estate industry is undergoing three fundamental restructurings: market landscape, development model, and competition factors[36]. - The company recognizes the long-term nature of structural adjustments within the industry, with no immediate changes expected in the downward trend of market demand[33]. - In 2024, the Chinese real estate market experienced deep adjustments, with new commercial property sales falling below RMB 10 trillion for the year[95]. - The inventory of commercial properties reached a historical high, indicating ongoing market challenges[96]. - The financing scale of the industry constantly contracted, posing significant challenges for overall market recovery[96]. Strategic Goals and Initiatives - The company aims to build the "quality benchmark among the Top 10" and focuses on being the best at understanding customers and products[16]. - The strategic goal includes creating "Good Houses" that are gorgeous, low-carbon, full-cycle, and healthy[16]. - The company aims to enhance its capabilities from "good" to "excellent" while adhering to prudent and stable operational principles[37]. - The transition from "quantity" to "quality" is a key focus for the company in the current market environment[37]. - The company plans to formulate its "Strategy 2030" plan in 2025, focusing on regional layout, business presence, and capacity deployment for the next five years[40]. - The company is committed to achieving "comprehensively high-quality and sustainable" development in the face of industry challenges[37]. - The company is committed to promoting digitalization to improve management efficiency and support operational decision-making[47]. - Greentown China is focusing on product upgrading by refining construction practices around the six major elements of "Good Houses" to enhance technical support[160]. Project and Land Management - The company has a strong land bank and effective organizational structure, contributing to its sustainable development[14]. - The total site area across various projects amounts to 2,188,934 sqm, with a total gross floor area (GFA) of 5,190,292 sqm[76]. - The company is actively expanding its land bank, with ongoing adjustments to GFA and saleable areas based on planning changes[66]. - The company has a total land reserve of 146 projects with a total GFA of approximately 27.47 million sqm, of which the attributable GFA is approximately 17.85 million sqm[120]. - The average land price per sqm is approximately RMB7,901, with 76% of the saleable value located in first- and second-tier cities[120]. - The company acquired 42 new projects with a total GFA of approximately 4.18 million sqm, incurring costs of approximately RMB48.4 billion and an average land cost of RMB14,383 per sqm[111]. Operational Efficiency - The Company completed the delivery of 241 projects, covering approximately 30.6 million sqm, with a delivery satisfaction score of 91 points, an increase of 2 points year-on-year[132]. - The average construction cost was reduced by approximately RMB114 per sqm, achieving over a 14% price reduction in key categories through centralized procurement[133]. - The development cycle for newly acquired projects was shortened to 1.7 months from land acquisition to commencement of construction, and 12.3 months to achieve positive operational cash flow[131]. - The organization achieved a total engagement score of 92% in 2024, maintaining a position above the industry average[135]. - The Company optimized 92 management systems, enhancing the efficiency and quality of its governance structure[136]. Sustainability and Social Responsibility - Greentown China constructed a total of 327 green building projects by the end of 2024, with an additional 2.28 million sqm certified as green buildings during the year[147][148]. - The Company has actively participated in the construction of affordable housing, with cumulative delivery reaching approximately 63.9 million sqm, benefiting around 428,000 residents[147]. - Greentown China's ESG governance received a BBB rating from MSCI and an A rating from Wind, placing it in the top 5% of the industry[153]. - As of December 31, 2024, Greentown China had delivered approximately 63.9 million sqm of affordable housing, improving living conditions for about 428,000 households[150].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is actively positioning itself in core cities [1][5] - Despite a cooling real estate market, the company reported a revenue increase of 20.7% year-on-year for 2024, reaching approximately RMB 158.55 billion [5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1.60 billion, a decrease of 48.8% compared to 2023 [5] - The company has focused on acquiring land in core cities, with 92% of its new saleable value located in first and second-tier cities [5] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in 2023, indicating improved debt management [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 131.95 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 152.99 billion in 2025, reflecting a -4% year-on-year growth rate [1] - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3.09 billion, with a forecasted increase to RMB 2.55 billion by 2027 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.74 in 2025, RMB 0.86 in 2026, and RMB 1.00 in 2027 [1][5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 15.5 in 2024 to 9.7 by 2027 [1][5] Market Positioning - The company has maintained a strong sales performance, with a sales area of 14.09 million square meters in 2024, despite an 8.9% year-on-year decline [5] - The company has successfully launched 42 new projects in 2024, with a total saleable value of approximately RMB 108.8 billion [5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was reported at 12.76%, a slight decrease from the previous year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 363 billion yuan for self-invested projects in Q1 2025, with a cumulative total of 524 billion yuan for the group [2]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1585.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.96 billion yuan, down 48.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company's property sales revenue reached 1470.2 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 92.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [3]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to losses from joint ventures and increased impairment provisions [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The total contract sales amount for 2024 was 2768 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, with self-invested sales amounting to 1718 billion yuan, down 11.6% [3]. - The company maintained a high sales return rate of 104% in 2024, supporting cash flow and reinvestment [3]. Investment Strategy - In 2024, the company added 42 new projects with a land acquisition amount of 484 billion yuan, expected to generate a new value of 1088 billion yuan [4]. - The focus on core cities resulted in 92% of land acquisition value being in first and second-tier cities, with 51% in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [4]. Financial Health - The company issued 125.31 billion yuan in domestic bonds in 2024 and completed an overseas financing swap of 820 million USD, maintaining a low financing cost of 3.7% [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is adjusted to 18.3 billion yuan, 23.0 billion yuan, and 27.4 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 25.7%, and 19.1% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.2, 10.5, and 8.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 363 billion yuan for self-invested projects in Q1 2025, with a cumulative total of 524 billion yuan for the group [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1585.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48.8% to 15.96 billion yuan [2]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to losses from joint ventures and increased impairment provisions totaling 49.17 billion yuan, which is 28.82 billion yuan higher than the previous year [3]. - The company’s property sales revenue reached 1470.2 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 92.7% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [3]. - The company’s total contract sales amount for 2024 was 2768 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, with self-invested sales down 11.6% [3]. - The company has a strong market presence in core cities, with 79% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities, and it ranks first in market share in eight cities [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s total land reserve consists of 146 projects with a total buildable area of 27.47 million square meters, of which 18.43 million square meters are for sale [4]. - The company’s financing channels remain robust, with domestic bond issuance of 12.531 billion yuan in 2024 and a total interest-bearing debt financing cost of 3.7%, down 40 basis points year-on-year [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is adjusted to 1.83 billion yuan, 2.30 billion yuan, and 2.74 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 25.7%, and 19.1% [4]. - The company’s current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.2, 10.5, and 8.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the real estate market continues to face challenges, including lower-than-expected policy implementation and ongoing sales sluggishness [5].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at Greentown China marks a new era under Liu Chengyun, following the resignation of Zhang Yadong after nearly seven years, amidst mixed financial results for 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Greentown China achieved a total contract sales amount of 276.8 billion yuan, ranking third in the real estate industry, with a significant increase in project acquisitions [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 158.55 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase from 131.38 billion yuan in 2023, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 48.8% to 1.596 billion yuan [8]. - The increase in impairment provisions contributed to the decline in net profit, with impairment and fair value changes rising from 2.035 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.917 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. Leadership Transition - Liu Chengyun, previously a senior executive at the parent company China Communications Construction Company, has taken over as chairman of Greentown China [2][4]. - Zhang Yadong's tenure saw significant growth in sales from approximately 156.4 billion yuan in 2018 to about 276.8 billion yuan in 2024, with the company’s industry ranking improving from 17th to 3rd [3]. Strategic Focus - Liu emphasized the importance of safety in investment strategies for 2025, aiming to balance safety, liquidity, and profitability while enhancing project evaluation and bidding capabilities [6][10]. - The company plans to continue its aggressive land acquisition strategy, focusing on high-quality projects in first and second-tier cities, while also exploring opportunities in smaller cities [7][10]. Inventory Management - Greentown China faces challenges with high inventory levels, with total inventory amounting to approximately 250 billion yuan, representing about half of total assets [9]. - The company aims to accelerate inventory reduction efforts, with a focus on improving project quality and efficiency in sales strategies [10].