Core Viewpoint - International investment bank, Lyon, upgraded the rating of Zhou Hei Ya (01458) to "High Conviction Outperform" with a target price increase from HKD 1.70 to HKD 2.30, corresponding to a forecasted PE of 20 times for 2026, close to its historical average of 20.5 times since listing [1][2] Group 1: Rating Upgrade and Financial Performance - The upgrade reflects a shift from scale expansion to efficiency prioritization, with product strength becoming the core focus [1] - Zhou Hei Ya's total store count is expected to optimize to 3,031 by the second half of 2024, enhancing single-store efficiency through a focus on key urban areas and high-potential regions [1] - The company's gross margin is projected to increase by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 56.8% in 2024, driven by precise cost control and product structure optimization during a raw material price decline [1] - Net profit is expected to grow by 17% due to single-store sales recovery and operational leverage, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42% for net profit from 2024 to 2027, potentially reaching RMB 281 million by 2027 [1] Group 2: Strategic Transformation and Market Position - In 2025, Zhou Hei Ya plans to implement strategic transformation measures focusing on store adjustments, product concentration, brand upgrades, and channel diversification [2] - The company aims to strengthen its core advantages in duck products while enhancing product appeal through brand upgrades and expanding into diverse channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and new retail [2] - Zhou Hei Ya's competitive moat lies in its unique flavor, high-quality control standards, and improved decision-making efficiency following the founder's return [2] - The shift from "scale-driven" to "value-driven" is recognized by international banks, indicating a clear long-term growth logic and investment value that can withstand market cycles [2]
里昂上调周黑鸭(01458)评级至“跑赢大市”，聚焦产品+效率打开盈利新空间