酒业 水井坊预计上半年销售量增加14.54%，Q2商务宴请和宴席场景承压，致发货恢复节奏放缓 7月14日，水井坊发布2025年半年度业绩预告。披露预计 2025 年半年度公司实现归属净利润为1.05亿 元，与上年同期相比，预计下降 56.52%；预计上半年实现营业收入14.98亿元，预计下降 12.84%；预计 销售量与上年同期相比增加 543 千升，同比增加 14.54%。2025年上半年，白酒行业整体仍处于深度调 整阶段。尤其在第二季度，商务宴请和宴席等传统消费场景持续承压，市场恢复节奏放缓。在上述因素 影响下，公司上半年营业收入预计同比下降 12.84%。由于白酒产品毛利率较高，收入下滑对利润造成 的影响更为显著，预计归属于母公司股东的净利润同比下降56.52%。春节期间总体消费表现低于预 期，导致渠道库存水平高于预期，进而对春节过后几个月的发货量造成一些影响。疲软趋势在第二季度 进一步加剧，宴席和商务宴请等关键场景需求不振，进一步影响了去库存进程，放缓了发货恢复的节 奏。 食品饮料 百事Q2净销售收入227.26亿美元，桂格切入咸味轻食新赛道 7月17日，百事公司公布2025年第二季度业绩，期内净销售 ...

当前市场在没有利空的情况下就容易上涨，两地市场均强势上行，港股今天跳空涨1.33%。 昨日诟病大金融不给力，今天就卷土重来，首当其冲是保险类，市场判断二季度普通型人身险产品预定 利率研究值或低于2.25%。7月初已有公司及时跟进市场利率变化，结合自身经营情况调整产品定价， 部分公司将于8月底完成新旧产品切换。这导致保险负债成本缓释：助推险企提高权益配置占比，支撑 超长债收益率下行。另外，监管层对保险业的考核标准也进行了调整，意味着保险公司可以更灵活的配 置非银行类的资产，从而不断提升收益率。今天中国人寿(02628)、中国太保(02601)等均涨超5%。 而证券股的催化则来自于稳定币，当地时间7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞成、122票反对的结果 通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》，旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。该法案将提 交美国总统特朗普，预计将由特朗普签署成为法律。这意味着美国稳定币正式开启运营，全球最大稳定 币发行商Tether Holdings SA的首席执行官Paolo Ardoino日前宣布，该公司发行的USDT—全球最大的稳 定币—市值首次超过1600亿美元，并指出这是一个" ...

展望未来，周黑鸭有望凭借上半年积累的良好发展态势，继续深化战略布局。一方面，随着 "门店质量 改革"的持续推进，单店销售仍有较大提升空间，有望进一步推动利润增长。另一方面，原材料成本的 稳定控制以及费用率的持续优化，将为公司盈利能力的持续提升保驾护航。此外，周黑鸭在复合调味品 等新品类的积极探索，以及在新兴渠道、海外市场的稳步拓展，将为公司开辟全新的增长曲线，持续释 放长期价值，为消费赛道注入强心剂。 同时，原材料成本的下行趋势，直接推动了毛利率的上升，增强了集团的盈利空间。此外，通过精益管 理，集团成功优化了销售费用率，进一步提升了整体的盈利能力。 在消费市场逐渐回归理性、竞争愈发激烈的大环境下，周黑鸭通过精准的战略布局，实现了从注重规模 扩张到聚焦经营质量的转变，成功在行业普遍面临增长压力时，走出了一条以质取胜的差异化发展道 路，通过精细化运营，实现可持续的盈利增长。 7月18日，周黑鸭(01458)发布2025年上半年盈利预告，在休闲食品消费承压的背景下交出一份超预期答 卷，展现出强劲的盈利能力和发展韧性。 预告显示，周黑鸭预计于2025年上半年实现利润约9000万元至1.13亿元（不包括分占联营公司盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of July 18, 160 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from China New Economy Investment (00080), Aoyuan Group Equity (02905), and Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) showing high growth rates of 288.89%, 55.28%, and 50.00% respectively [1][2]. Summary by Category 52-Week High Performers - China New Economy Investment (00080) closed at 0.440, with a peak price of 0.700, achieving a growth rate of 288.89% [2]. - Aoyuan Group Equity (02905) closed at 0.218, with a peak price of 0.250, achieving a growth rate of 55.28% [2]. - Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) closed at 0.221, with a peak price of 0.228, achieving a growth rate of 50.00% [2]. - Other notable performers include Hualian International (00969) with a growth rate of 40.13% and Zhongke Bio (01237) with a growth rate of 37.25% [2]. Additional High Performers - Wanma Holdings (06928) closed at 0.550 with a growth rate of 30.43% [2]. - Lepu Biopharma-B (02157) closed at 7.940 with a growth rate of 24.54% [2]. - Other stocks with significant growth include ZhiJianYueDong (06860) at 17.14% and China Jindian Group (08281) at 17.12% [2]. 52-Week Low Performers - The document also lists stocks that reached their 52-week lows, with XI Ernan CO-U (09311) showing a decline of 16.10% [6]. - Other notable declines include XI Ernan CO (07311) at -12.62% and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at -5.70% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of Quzhou Duck Head stores across China contrasts sharply with the decline of major braised food brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable and authentic options [5][6][20]. Group 1: Market Trends - Over 30,000 Quzhou Duck Head stores have opened nationwide, while major brands like Juewei Duck Neck, Zhou Hei Ya, and Huang Shang Huang are closing stores, with Juewei reducing from 16,000 to 12,000 locations in just two years [3][5]. - Zhou Hei Ya's store count dropped from nearly 4,000 to just over 3,000, a reduction of about 25%, while Huang Shang Huang decreased from 4,500 to 3,600 [5]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - The decline of major brands is not due to a decrease in consumer interest in braised foods, as evidenced by the rapid expansion of Quzhou Duck Head [6]. - Quzhou Duck Head offers a more affordable price point, with items like duck necks priced around 6-7 yuan, significantly cheaper than competitors [23]. Group 3: Business Strategies - Major brands have attempted to upscale their offerings, leading to higher prices and reduced portion sizes, which has alienated consumers [11][12]. - The pricing strategy of major brands has resulted in a situation where their products can cost 70-100 yuan per kilogram, while Quzhou Duck Head maintains a more accessible pricing model [12][23]. Group 4: Product Differentiation - Quzhou Duck Head emphasizes "handmade fresh braising," contrasting with the mass-produced offerings of larger brands, which enhances its appeal [24]. - The visibility of the cooking process and the variety of ingredients available at Quzhou Duck Head stores create a more engaging consumer experience [24][25]. Group 5: Cultural and Regional Influences - Quzhou cuisine, known for its spiciness, is influenced by its geographical location at the intersection of several provinces, contributing to the unique flavor profile of Quzhou Duck Head [16][20]. - The traditional dish "Three Heads and One Palm," which includes duck heads, rabbit heads, and fish heads, reflects the rich culinary heritage of the region [18][19].

2025.07. 02 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 科技含量"满满"的无人仓，正在将商家的部分责任转移给骑手。 近期，短视频平台上，有骑手发布了自己在周黑鸭无人仓取餐的视频，受到了不少关注。视频显示， 骑手进入店内后，商家通过语音"遥控"骑手在冰柜取货，骑手在冰柜内翻找了一会才找齐商品。随 后商家要求骑手完成对商品扫码、输入顾客手机尾号、出小票、打包等操作，经过一系列流程最终完 成取货。骑手在视频中表示，"晚上12点店里没有人可以把关了，我只负责配送。" （图为骑手视频中的截图） 有骑手对第一财经表示对于这类需要骑手完成取货打包的无人仓订单，骑手十分抗拒却没有很好的解 决方法。 "骑手最讨厌的订单" 上海骑手张波（化名）对第一财经表示，"有遇到过这种无人仓商家，大多是卖猫粮、狗粮。"上述 骑手表示，这类订单并不是每天都有，偶尔会碰到一两单，频率大概是一周4到5单。虽然单量不 大，但张波表示这类订单是"骑手最讨厌的单"，因为骑手到店后商品没有完成打包，需要骑手自己 找货。他表示，这类商家地址往往较为隐蔽，路线较为复杂，到达后还需要骑手花费时间找货，很浪 费时间，并且又担心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of unmanned warehouses is shifting some responsibilities from merchants to delivery riders, leading to operational challenges and dissatisfaction among riders [1][4][5]. Group 1: Unmanned Warehouse Operations - Unmanned warehouses are becoming more common, with brands like Zhou Hei Ya adopting this model to reduce labor costs and extend operational hours [4][6]. - Zhou Hei Ya has reported significant cost savings and efficiency improvements through the use of smart devices in their unmanned satellite stores [4][6]. - The operational process involves riders scanning to enter, retrieving items, and packaging them, which can be time-consuming and burdensome for riders [5][6]. Group 2: Rider Experiences and Challenges - Many riders express strong aversion to unmanned warehouse orders, citing inefficiencies and the need to search for items themselves [5][6]. - Riders often encounter these orders infrequently, but they are considered the least desirable due to the time wasted and the complexity of locating items [5][6]. - The system does not clearly indicate when an order is from an unmanned warehouse, leading to frustration when riders arrive and find they must perform additional tasks [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The growth of unmanned warehouses is driven by technological advancements and changing consumer demands for convenience [6][7]. - There is a trend of merchants shifting responsibilities to riders, which blurs the lines of accountability and contradicts the intended efficiency of unmanned operations [7]. - Regulatory measures are being introduced to clarify responsibilities and protect riders' rights, indicating a potential shift in how unmanned warehouses operate in the future [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a transformation under the leadership of its founder, focusing on optimizing store operations, enhancing product offerings, and expanding distribution channels to drive growth and improve profitability [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded by Zhou Fuyou in Wuhan, the company has developed into a leading player in the domestic leisure cooked duck products market, with a total of 3,031 retail stores as of 2024 [1] - The company's revenue and net profit have experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.57% and -8.49% respectively from 2013 to 2024 [1] Group 2: Operational Improvements - Since the founder resumed management, the company has focused on enhancing single-store performance through product optimization, store operations, and employee incentives [1] - The store count increased by 23% in 2022, followed by 11% in 2023, but saw a decline of 21% in 2024, while same-store revenue improved by 5% in 2023 and is expected to continue this upward trend [1] Group 3: Channel Development - The company has elevated the development of distribution channels to a strategic level, establishing a dedicated department and targeting high-end membership stores, supermarkets, and snack channels [2] - Successful entry into major supermarket channels has been achieved, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 [2] Group 4: International Expansion - The company is actively exploring overseas markets, aiming to spread Chinese marinated food culture and establish new growth avenues, with plans to enter Southeast Asia and other regions by 2025 [3] - A joint venture has been formed to launch a new series of compound seasonings, with plans for additional product launches in the coming years [3] Group 5: Financial Projections - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 152 million, 188 million, and 219 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.44%, 24.02%, and 16.52% [3] - The company is considered to have a favorable valuation compared to peers, with price-to-earnings ratios of 31.23x and 25.18x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, Zhou Hei Ya, is recognized as a leader in the domestic leisure cooked food industry, particularly in marinated duck products. The founder has returned to management, initiating a series of strategic reforms aimed at improving store efficiency and expanding distribution channels, which are expected to yield positive results [8][13]. - The company has experienced fluctuations in revenue and profit but is now positioned for a new growth cycle due to recent management changes and strategic adjustments [28][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhou Hei Ya has grown to become a leading player in the leisure cooked food sector, with a total of 3,031 retail stores by 2024. The company reported revenue of 2.451 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.57% from 2013 to 2024 [8][13]. - The market for leisure marinated products is relatively concentrated, with Zhou Hei Ya maintaining a strong market share [13]. 2. Business Strategy and Reforms - The company has shifted its focus from rapid expansion to enhancing store quality, resulting in a net closure of 785 stores in 2024, while simultaneously achieving a 12% increase in average store revenue [50]. - Zhou Hei Ya is actively restructuring its distribution channels, including partnerships with high-end membership stores and supermarkets, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth in the coming years [8][50]. 3. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 151.67 million yuan, 188.10 million yuan, and 219.17 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.44%, 24.02%, and 16.52% [1][8]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 31.23x and 25.18x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8][1]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Zhou Hei Ya's product matrix is diverse, with a strong emphasis on classic flavors and new product development aimed at younger consumers. The company has also entered cross-industry collaborations to enhance brand visibility [50][43]. - The leisure marinated food market is expected to continue expanding, with a projected market size of 350 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 6.19% from 2018 to 2024 [45].

Core Insights - The founder Zhou Fuyou's return to Zhou Hei Ya has not immediately reversed the company's declining performance, leading to a brand rejuvenation effort aimed at making the brand "younger and more interesting" [2][19] - Zhou Hei Ya is facing dual challenges of weak core business performance and chaotic cross-industry ventures, with the brand being labeled as a "price assassin" by young consumers due to high prices [2][19] Group 1: Management Changes and Challenges - Zhou Fuyou's return initiated significant internal changes, including a restructuring of the management framework and a shift towards micro-management to address performance issues [3][7] - Despite achieving revenue and net profit growth in 2023, Zhou Hei Ya fell short of its profit target of 200 million yuan, primarily due to weakened consumer demand in the fourth quarter [6][19] - The company has seen a drastic increase in store numbers from 1,255 in 2019 to 3,816 by the end of 2023, but this rapid expansion has led to challenges in maintaining product quality and brand reputation [12][19] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhou Hei Ya's revenue dropped to 2.451 billion yuan, a decline of 10.66% year-on-year, with net profit falling to 98 million yuan, down 15.03% [19] - The average revenue per store decreased significantly from 2.1 million yuan in 2019 to 590,000 yuan in 2023, indicating the impact of increased competition and operational inefficiencies [16][19] Group 3: Brand Rejuvenation and Strategy - Zhou Hei Ya has launched a brand rejuvenation strategy, focusing on modernizing packaging and store design to attract younger consumers [22][25] - The company is attempting to balance its classic offerings with innovative products, but marketing efforts have been criticized for lacking depth and failing to connect with consumers [26][27] - Plans for international expansion into Southeast Asia are underway, but challenges such as taste adaptation and local competition pose significant risks [27][28]