国内成品油价迎年内第三涨，加满一箱油多花9元

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have increased for the third time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 230 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, effective from April 2 [1][4]. Price Impact - The cost of fuel for private cars and logistics companies will rise, with an example showing that filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan, while a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month will see an increase of approximately 361 yuan in fuel costs [2]. Market Dynamics - The current price adjustment marks the seventh change in 2025, reflecting a pattern of "three increases, three decreases, and one stagnation" for the year [4]. - International oil prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by OPEC+ countries agreeing to implement compensatory production cuts until June 2026, with reductions estimated between 189,000 to 435,000 barrels per day [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including new U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, are contributing to market concerns about oil supply, with the potential for reduced exports from these countries [5]. - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation has slightly alleviated supply pressures, but renewed fears regarding U.S.-Iran relations have led to increased oil prices [5]. Future Price Outlook - The direction of the next round of fuel price adjustments remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting a higher probability of a decrease due to anticipated U.S. tariff policies and OPEC+ production strategies [7]. - Analysts predict that U.S. oil inventory pressures and concerns over demand due to trade disputes may lead to weaker oil prices in the near term [7]. - Domestic demand may see a boost during the Qingming holiday and spring farming season, potentially supporting gasoline and diesel consumption [7]. Supply Considerations - The number of major refineries undergoing maintenance is expected to increase, while some local refineries are resuming operations, leading to a moderate tightening of market supply [8]. - The next price adjustment window is set to open on April 17, 2025 [8].