青岛啤酒(600600)：24年销量承压 25年恢复可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in annual revenue and beer sales due to overall weak demand, but managed to achieve a slight increase in net profit year-on-year. The company is optimistic about future growth driven by product and channel strategies. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.14 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.35 billion RMB, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.18 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and a net profit of -740 million RMB, an improvement from -880 million RMB in the same period last year [1] Sales Volume and Pricing - The total beer sales volume for 2024 was 7.538 million tons, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, while Q4 2024 sales volume was 753,000 tons, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year [2] - The main brand's sales volume for 2024 was 4.34 million tons, down 4.8% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end products at 3.154 million tons, down 2.7% [2] - The average price per ton for the main brand decreased by 0.3% to 5,088 RMB, while other brands saw a price increase of 0.9% to 2,969 RMB, leading to an overall average price increase of 0.4% to 4,189 RMB [2] Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 40.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 2024 gross margin was 26.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 improved by 1.2 percentage points to 14%, driven by the release of cost benefits from declining raw material prices [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates positive sales growth in 2025, supported by a recovering dining sector and low base effects, alongside strategic product and channel enhancements [4] - The company plans to implement a "1+1+1+2+N" strategy for product optimization and a "one vertical, two horizontal" strategy for market development [3][4] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.41 RMB, 3.62 RMB, and 3.83 RMB, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 21x, and 20x [4]