各位投资者大家好我是平安证券食品料分析师张金丽今天我给大家带来我们2025年中期策略报告的一个分享首先我们的报告的题目叫做月底需求换新年传统消费激活力我们这次的策略报告主要是集中研究的是新消费对行业带来的影响 首先我们把这篇报告会分为三个部分分别从新需求新产品和新渠道这三个部分来研究现在的新消费的一个变化以及对我们食品饮料行业的一个影响然后再会提出这样的一个投资建议最后是风险提示首先呢我们可以看到这个新需求 因为这一部分的新消费者往往都是95年以后的一个Z世代的一个消费者那这一代的消费者他们因为伴随的是整个信息网络的一个蓬勃爆发所在这一部分的一个成长的一部分新生的这样一个需求者所以说可以看到他们自我意识的崛起以及这样的一个发展是快于之前这几代人的所以说 再叠加上他们的父辈其实也是积累了一定的这样的一个财富所以说他们的一个需求以及他们的一个行为偏好消费偏好是有别于之前这几个包括80后70后的这部分消费者的所以说也也划出了很多这个新的一个需求那么我们总结来看呢就是从越人到越级的一个变化 那我们先看一下整体的一个政策的一个发布首先其实从今年以来呢各个政府政府以及各个部门呢其实也是陆续出台了多项这样的消费政策来推动消 ...

转自：大众新闻 我国是全球最大的啤酒生产和消费国，2024年我国规模以上啤酒企业累计产量约为3521.3万千升。全球赛道上，中国啤酒行业正以品质和品牌美誉度彰显 中国制造的国际竞争力。 有着122年历史的青岛啤酒依靠多维破局的新思考，通过科技赋能，不断开发新产品和新场景，向高端化、智能化、绿色化转型，实现跨越式发展。在今 年6月举行的第22届世界品牌大会上，青岛啤酒以品牌价值2803.55亿元，蝉联行业榜首，跻身世界品牌500强。 "周五下班到青岛喝啤酒"成为韩国游客新潮流；火爆的"苏超"现场，青岛啤酒花式助威标语登上热搜；燃遍全国的青岛啤酒节带来冰爽一夏……今年以 来，百年国潮品牌青岛啤酒不断上演出圈好戏。 这一僵局，终被青岛啤酒打破。青岛啤酒在生产加工、物流配送、客户触达等环节构建了全链条、端到端的数字生态，实现了原浆日行千里、畅行全国。 保质期仅7天的原浆啤酒，被誉为"从前只有酿酒师才能喝到的啤酒"，和传统啤酒生产极为不同。 青岛啤酒的解决方案充满科技气息。 一瓶原浆啤酒，科技保"鲜"发全国 原浆啤酒被誉为"从前只有酿酒师才能喝到的啤酒"。青岛啤酒在生产加工、物流配送、客户触达等环节，构建全链条、端到端 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.93% during the week of July 7-11, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their strong brand and channel capabilities in the high-end liquor segment, despite current demand pressures [2] - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer highlighted for their growth potential [3] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated a safety initiative for the meat industry, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality [4] Consumer Price Index - In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1% [5] Industry Trends - The demand for mass-market food products is expected to stabilize and grow in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends in healthy snacks and beverages [6] - The "Civilian Liquor Era" is emerging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye developing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [7][8] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai held a channel partner meeting to discuss market expansion and service improvement [11] - Wuliangye Group established a new energy management company, indicating diversification into battery sales and energy management [12] Financial Forecasts - Major liquor companies are experiencing pressure on profit margins, with over half reporting declines in profits and revenues in the first half of 2025 [10] - The industry is undergoing significant executive turnover, reflecting strategic shifts in response to market challenges [10] Industry Data - The price of premium liquor is currently at 438.00 yuan per bottle, reflecting market dynamics [19] - The retail prices of major dairy products and the costs of seasoning raw materials are being monitored for trends [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer emphasizes quality as the foundation of its development, showcasing its transformation in the digital age through meticulous control and management of the brewing process [1] Group 1: Quality Management - Qingdao Beer has established a leading "exclusive" malt factory to enhance the quality of its beer, utilizing a "barley fingerprint database" and innovative malt flavor mapping technology [3] - The company employs a rigorous quality control process, including over 1800 quality inspection projects and precise temperature control to ensure the quality of each beer [3] - A new digital quality management model has been introduced, encompassing standardized control systems and a digital management platform to enhance consumer experience [4] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Qingdao Beer has been recognized for its scientific advancements, winning the National Science and Technology Progress Award four times, highlighting its commitment to research and development [5] - The introduction of "Qingdao Beer Original" emphasizes freshness and quality, with a shelf life of only 7 days, utilizing smart supply chain monitoring for optimal delivery [5] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The company is adapting to the preferences of younger consumers by creating a "Beer+" ecosystem that allows for personalized product customization for various occasions [6][7] - New product lines, such as the A series, are designed to meet specific consumer scenarios, enhancing the overall brand experience [7] Group 4: Sustainability Initiatives - Qingdao Beer is leading the industry in sustainability efforts, including the use of lightweight bottles and exploring new models for wastewater value sharing [8] - The company is committed to rapid responses to market changes, ensuring that quality transformation aligns with consumer demands [8]

近日，青岛啤酒节在全国各地激情延续，市民们相聚畅谈、把酒言欢。（青岛啤酒 供图） 饮酒观赛 啤酒节遇见"苏超"联赛 转自：中工网 这个周末，青岛啤酒节遇见"苏超"联赛，拉满话题流量，不仅为各地市民提供抚慰人心的情绪价值，更是打造了夏日解压、消暑的沉浸场景，在全国各地掀起一波沉浸式体验的消费热潮。 当华灯初上，热浪渐消，结束了一天的忙碌，约上三五好友，畅谈相聚，把酒言欢，在欢快的干杯声中，"烟火气"逐渐升腾……这个周末，青岛啤酒节在全国各地激情延续。在内蒙古呼和浩特、 而在山东潍坊，虽然气温接近40℃，也难抵好客山东的如火热情。"潍坊青岛啤酒节热情比朝天锅还滚烫"，网友在社交平台如此分享。啤酒的清凉、演出的激情，攒出了一个魅力四射的"鸢都消 市民和游客在畅饮中感受生活的喜悦，在欢聚中共享夏日的激情。（青岛啤酒 供图） 一杯杯清凉的啤酒，一串串喷香的烤肉……从青岛啤酒经典1903，到爽口的纯生、醇厚的原浆、浓郁的白啤，再到汉斯小木屋，每一位市民和游客在畅饮中感受生活的喜悦，在欢聚中共享夏日的 自西向东，从南到北，青岛啤酒节扎根于每一座城市，不仅在于它亲近热烈的自然属性，更把所在城市的自然、人文、历史、科技等文化个 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese beverage market is witnessing a contrasting trend where premium beer sales are surging while traditional liquor, particularly baijiu, is facing significant sales declines [2][8][12] Beer Industry Trends - The Chinese beer market is undergoing a high-end transformation, with brands like Tsingtao and China Resources Snow Beer launching premium products priced over 1,000 yuan, such as Tsingtao's "Legend of a Century" priced at 1,399 yuan per bottle [2][3] - In Q1 2023, Tsingtao's three premium products sold nearly 200,000 bottles, indicating strong demand despite high prices [3] - The shift from price wars to value wars is evident, with companies increasing product prices by 5%-13% since 2018 and focusing on premium product development [3][4] - The rise of high-end beer is supported by a growing middle-income group willing to pay for quality, with premium products becoming cultural symbols and social currencies [4][6] - The high-end beer segment's sales share increased from 29% in 2015 to 36% in 2019, with projections to reach 41% by 2025, indicating a structural upgrade in the market [7] Baijiu Industry Challenges - The baijiu industry is experiencing unprecedented sales challenges, with some regions seeing year-on-year declines of 40%-50% in 2023 [8][9] - National baijiu production fell by 7.2% in Q1 2023, with over half of the surveyed companies reporting decreased profits and revenues [8][9] - The implementation of strict regulations against high-end alcohol consumption in government settings has exacerbated the sales decline, particularly affecting brands reliant on government purchases [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly turning away from traditional high-proof baijiu, with a 22% decline in consumption frequency among the 25-35 age group [11][12] - The baijiu market is facing high inventory pressures, with total inventory reaching 167.8 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and some brands experiencing significant price drops [11][12] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The beverage market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by the blurring of category boundaries, with beer and baijiu increasingly competing for the same consumer base [15][16] - The fragmentation of consumption scenarios is leading to a demand for more flexible product forms and packaging, as consumers seek diverse drinking experiences [15][16] - Health consciousness and personalization are becoming key drivers in product development, with low-alcohol and low-calorie options gaining popularity [16] - The market is expected to polarize further, with a clear divide between ultra-premium products and high-value mass-market offerings, necessitating companies to define their market positioning [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao Beer Festival has become a vibrant summer celebration across various cities in China, combining local culture, sports, and culinary experiences to enhance consumer engagement and boost local economies [1][9]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The combination of beer and sports, particularly the "Suo Super" league, has ignited summer enthusiasm, with venues like Nanjing's Jiangbei New District transforming into lively viewing spots for fans [3]. - In Yangzhou, the "Suo Super Night" attracted 900 attendees, showcasing the festival's ability to draw both seasoned fans and newcomers, creating a lively atmosphere [3]. - Despite high temperatures in Weifang, the beer festival atmosphere remained vibrant, with local delicacies and cultural performances enhancing the experience [5]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The festival has activated urban consumer vitality, with reports of long queues at stalls and significant sales, such as over 9,000 items sold on the opening day in Xuancheng [7]. - Various cities have created immersive experiences by integrating food, entertainment, and local culture, such as Jinan's creative merchandise and Langfang's comprehensive leisure offerings [7]. - The Qingdao Beer Festival has successfully resonated with diverse urban populations, fostering a sense of community and shared enjoyment through food and drink [9].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 超配 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 1.政策纠偏情绪修复，聚焦供需改善 方 向 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/ ...

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250630-20250704 相关研究 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 报 20250616-20250620》 2025/06/21 《 白酒批价下行 食品将表现分化—— 食 品饮料行业周报 20250609-20250613 》 2025/06/14 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com ⚫ 投资分析意见：传统消费的头部企业经过调整，从分红和股息角度已具备长期 投资价值； ...