行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 2025 年三季报前瞻 推荐（维持） 白酒加速出清，大众逐渐改善 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 联系人：王培培 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 126 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 46,653.82 | 3.99 | ...

央广网万宁10月21日消息（记者索迪 实习记者韩悦琪 郭心怡）随着最后一轮"酒王争霸赛"精彩角逐圆满结束，10月20日晚，持续9天的2025万宁热浪消费季 暨青岛啤酒嘉年华圆满落幕。从10月12日开启幕至收官，这场"啤酒+文旅+消费"的狂欢盛宴累计吸引市民游客近3万人次，勾勒出一幅"商旅文"深度融合的 夜经济全景图。 夜幕下的闭幕式现场，舞台光束与手机荧光交相辉映，酒杯碰撞声、欢笑声与乐队演出的旋律交织成动人的夜曲。当晚，来自广东汕头的周先生夺得"酒 王"桂冠，赢得价值1688元的一世传奇啤酒一瓶，他激动地说："从初赛到决赛，每天都很有意思，感受到万宁夜生活的热闹！" 这场无需购票即可入场的嘉年华，以三大核心功能区构建起沉浸式消费闭环：美食区汇集重庆酸辣粉、内蒙古烤肉串等50余种地方风味，多层次满足消费者 舌尖体验；啤酒售卖区陈列超高端、经典全系列产品，满足市民游客多样需求；舞台区每日上演乐队驻唱、舞蹈表演等演艺活动，成为一道亮眼的风景线。 酒王争霸赛（央广网记者 索迪 摄） 活动演出现场（央广网记者 索迪 摄） 从10月12日的启动键按下，到10月20日的灯光渐暗，这场跨越9天的消费盛宴，不仅为万宁秋季旅文 ...

10月17日-19日，以"世界名酒·共享荣耀"为主题的第二十三届中国国际酒业博览会圆满举办，青岛啤酒 产品"全列阵"出席，多款新品"轻盈"登场，系列金奖产品实力"吸睛"，打造一场沉浸式的啤酒嘉年华 酒博会上，青岛啤酒湖北销售分公司品牌负责人陈秋静女士受邀接受"中央广播电视总台-央央好物直播 平台"专访。采访中，陈秋静女士重点向全国观众介绍了青岛啤酒顺应现代消费趋势推出的重点产品， 其中特别提到了"青岛啤酒轻干"，她表示，随着消费者对健康饮食和生活方式日益关注，青岛啤酒正积 极布局健康啤酒赛道，以"低卡、轻负担、高品质"的核心优势，为消费者带来多种选择 青啤产品"全阵列"上场，金奖产品实力"吸睛"，除了亮眼的新品，经典1903、纯生、白啤、原浆、水晶 纯生以及奥古特、一世传奇、皮尔森、黑啤、IPA等高端特色产品也"组团"亮相本届酒博会，多款产品 斩获国内外评酒大赛金奖，在展会现场实力"吸睛" 展会现场还设置了，丰富多彩的互动环节，将"美酒体验"与"趣味互动"深度融合，点燃全场观众的参与 热情，为消费者的品质生活，注入更多快乐因子 0糖低卡的青岛啤酒轻干，秉承传统酿造工艺，采用多种酒花复配，口感干净清爽，特殊的发 ...

当理性消费成为共识，当人工智能深刻颠覆产业逻辑，当国际化之路机遇与挑战并存，中国酒业正站在 一个"冰与火"交织的历史十字路口——一边是存量竞争下的寒意凛冽，一边是价值重构带来的生机灼 热。 10月17日，由中国酒业协会主办、中国安徽古井集团有限责任公司协办的"世界名酒·共享荣耀"世界名 酒价值大会在武汉举行。这场思想盛宴，直面行业的核心命题：在全新的时代语境下，名酒的价值应由 什么重新定义？消费变革如何倒逼产业从"规模扩张"转向"价值创造"？酒企如何从"交易"走向"共鸣"， 以体验与价值重构增长逻辑？中国酒业的全球化，又该如何跨越文化边界，实现从"产品出海"到"价值 共鸣"的升维？ 回应并求解这些时代之问，让本次大会超越了一场普通的思想碰撞。它因危机而谋变，不仅是新蓝图的 绘制，更是一次引导中国酒业实现价值升维的战略总动员。 新周期下的博弈：酒业的深度重构与价值重塑 当前，全球酒类产业正处于结构性变迁的关键阶段，呈现出多维度的战略转向与价值重构。烈酒板块表 现尤为突出，高端及奢侈细分市场以10.3%的年均复合增长率引领全球增长浪潮，亚太地区成为驱动该 增长的核心引擎。与此同时，中国白酒市场保持稳健扩容，年复合 ...

10月17日，以"世界名酒·共享荣耀"为主题的第二十三届中国国际酒业博览会在武汉开幕。青岛啤酒携 全系产品"全列阵"出场，多款新品"轻盈"登场引领健康风尚，更有十多款斩获国内外大奖的金奖产品集 中亮相，为现场观众打造一场沉浸式的啤酒嘉年华。 酒博会刮起"健康风" 青啤多款新品"轻盈"登场 在健康消费理念日益深入人心的当下，青岛啤酒轻干、0.0%无醇白啤等多款新品备受关注，以"低卡、 无醇、高品质"的核心优势，为消费者带来兼顾口感与健康的饮酒新选择。 "喝起来清爽不腻，还不用担心热量和酒精，青岛啤酒这两款新品真是把健康和好喝'焊死'了！" 现场一 位连续品鉴两款新品的消费者点赞道。 作为健康类新品的"人气选手"，青岛啤酒轻干秉承传统酿造工艺，采用多种酒花复配，口感干净清爽， 苦味适中，特殊的发酵技术赋予其清新果香与轻盈口感。尤其值得一提的是，其每100ml酒液热量仅为 29千卡，含糖量低至0.1g，满足了当代消费者对健康与美味的双重追求。 斩获2025啤酒世界杯金奖的青岛啤酒0.0%无醇白啤，则凭借顶尖科研实力诠释"无醇也能有好味"。依托 行业内唯一的啤酒生物发酵工程国家重点实验室，该产品采用先进的真空蒸馏脱醇 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the liquor sector is in a bottoming process while food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [6][8]. Core Views - The liquor industry is expected to experience a prolonged period of inventory digestion, with pressure on third-quarter reports anticipated to continue into the first quarter of 2026. The report emphasizes that stock price recovery may precede fundamental improvements [6][7]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by new consumption trends, recommending companies with strong long-term competitive advantages [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 0.86%, while the liquor segment rose by 1.78%. The sector ranked third among 31 sub-industries [5][29]. - Key stocks that performed well included Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, while stocks like Jinzi Ham faced significant declines [5]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is facing significant adjustment pressures, with high channel inventories and weak demand expected to persist into the next year. The report anticipates that the sales performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be under pressure due to high base effects from 2025 [7][29]. - The consumer goods sector is viewed positively, particularly in dairy and beer, with recommendations for stocks like Yili and Yanjing Beer, while also noting potential competition in the snack and beverage segments [8][29]. 3. Key Company Updates - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1750 RMB, down 15 RMB week-on-week, while Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 830 RMB. The report notes that the autumn sugar and wine fair had a subdued atmosphere, reflecting ongoing market challenges [7][19]. - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies like Chenguang Biotech, with a projected net profit increase of 344.05% to 401.55% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10]. 4. Valuation Metrics - As of October 17, 2025, the food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 19.74x, with a premium rate of 24%. The liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.33x, with a premium rate of 15% [19][28]. 5. Sectoral Excess Returns - The food and beverage industry outperformed the Shenwan A index by 4.44 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different levels of performance [29][30].

在10月17日举办的购在中国·2025山东金秋消费季暨国际消费场景全球推广活动启动仪式上，记者 获悉，今年以来，全市离境退税商店新增42家，增长超1倍。吸引国际消费者从"入境打卡"到"入境刷 卡"，青岛正以持续创新的国际消费场景和不断优化的国际消费体验，塑造消费增长的"强引擎"。 青岛入境消费的升温，离不开政策红利的释放与消费环境的优化。 中国免签"朋友圈"持续扩大，直接带动青岛入境客流攀升。统计数据显示，前9个月，青岛接待入 境外籍游客44.2万人次，同比增长43.5%。 从吸引"客流"到深耕"客留"，政府相关部门和市场主体也不断优化服务体验，让境外消费者感受到 入境消费的便捷与舒适。 随着免签朋友圈持续扩大和离境退税等政策优化，"带着空箱子来中国"的深度游购正成为外国游客 入境的新方式。作为入境游热门目的地之一，青岛的入境消费也持续升温。 青岛成为"入境消费"热门城市 一直以来，青岛积极实施国际消费拓展行动，融合"山、海、湾、城"特色资源，打造具有国际范、 青岛味、时尚潮的特色场景。凭借多元消费场景与离境退税等政策红利，青岛正从"入境打卡"的旅游目 的地变成"入境消费"的热门城市。 在海信广场和万象城等高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [56]. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is marginally improving, with a focus on the performance feedback from the third-quarter reports. The liquor sector is under pressure due to ongoing constraints in consumption scenarios, particularly in government and business banquets, leading to a subdued performance in the second quarter. The market is currently engaged in left-side speculation regarding a reversal of industry difficulties, while long-term assessments will depend on economic recovery and distributor confidence [6][51]. - The food and beverage industry index rose by 2.26% from October 9 to October 16, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.74 percentage points during the same period [13][14]. - Approximately 69% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Kweichow Moutai (+21.10%) and Baba Food (+11.73%) [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 2.26% from October 9 to October 16, 2025, ranking seventh among Shenwan's primary industry sectors [13]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the other liquor sector showing the highest increase at 5.69%, while the soft drink sector had the largest decline at -1.17% [14]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai remained stable at 1760 RMB/bottle, while the prices of Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 increased by 10 RMB/bottle to 850 RMB/bottle [24]. - **Condiment Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar increased, with soybean meal at 3010 RMB/ton and white sugar at 5790 RMB/ton [27]. - **Beer Sector**: The average price of barley was 2232.50 RMB/ton, with glass prices at 15.70 RMB/square meter [32]. - **Dairy Sector**: The average price of fresh milk remained unchanged at 3.04 RMB/kg [39]. - **Meat Products Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 18.02 RMB/kg, down 1.29 RMB/kg from the previous month [41]. Important News - In the first eight months of 2025, Jiangsu Province's liquor production decreased by 17.6% [44]. - The national liquor price index showed a slight decline in September, with a total index of 99.63, down 0.37% [45]. - Sales of liquor on Douyin increased by 58% month-on-month in September [46]. Company Announcements - **Wuliangye**: Announced the completion of a stock buyback plan, acquiring 627.33 million shares [49]. - **Qiaqia Food**: Reported progress on its share repurchase plan, buying back 105.52 million shares [50]. Industry Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and other regional liquors like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guojiao [51][52].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% on October 16, with seven sectors experiencing gains, led by coal and banking, which increased by 2.35% and 1.35% respectively [1] - The food and beverage sector ranked third in terms of daily gains [1] - The steel and non-ferrous metals sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 2.14% and 2.06% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 54.29 billion yuan, with five sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The banking sector had the highest net inflow, amounting to 939 million yuan, contributing to its 1.35% increase [1] - The telecommunications sector followed with a daily increase of 0.74% and a net inflow of 895 million yuan [1] - A total of 26 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a net outflow of 9.24 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 7.40 billion yuan [1] Food and Beverage Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector increased by 0.97% with a total net inflow of 362 million yuan [2] - Out of 124 stocks in this sector, 42 stocks rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 79 stocks declined [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflows were Kweichow Moutai (4.81 billion yuan), Gujing Gongjiu (856.26 million yuan), and Wuliangye (852.26 million yuan) [2] - The sector also had 17 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Beiningmei (50.08 million yuan), Qingdao Beer (40.81 million yuan), and Shuanghui Development (32.34 million yuan) [2][4] Food and Beverage Sector Capital Inflow Rankings - Kweichow Moutai: +1.57%, turnover rate 0.37%, net inflow 481.21 million yuan [2] - Gujing Gongjiu: +2.56%, turnover rate 0.80%, net inflow 85.63 million yuan [2] - Wuliangye: +0.55%, turnover rate 0.51%, net inflow 85.23 million yuan [2] Food and Beverage Sector Capital Outflow Rankings - Beiningmei: -2.77%, turnover rate 4.46%, net outflow -50.08 million yuan [4] - Qingdao Beer: +0.03%, turnover rate 0.71%, net outflow -40.81 million yuan [4] - Shuanghui Development: +0.99%, turnover rate 0.31%, net outflow -32.34 million yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing profound changes in 2025, with shifts in consumer habits, channel restructuring, and capital market hesitance leading to both challenges and new opportunities [2] - The emergence of the post-90s generation as a new force in the liquor market is reshaping the industry landscape, emphasizing instant delivery and digital sales channels [4] - The industry is expected to reach a performance bottom in the first half of 2026, with head brands adjusting strategies to stabilize prices and optimize inventory [4][6] Industry Environment - The liquor industry is experiencing significant transformation characterized by consumer habit changes, channel restructuring, and capital market caution, leading to high inventory and performance declines [2] - Regional liquor companies are gaining traction while leading brands face performance pressures, indicating a divergence in market dynamics [2] - The focus on product innovation, particularly in low-alcohol and light bottle liquor, aligns with younger consumer trends [2] - The upcoming 2026 China Liquor Expo is anticipated to be a key platform for industry players to seize new growth opportunities [2] Brand Dynamics - Major liquor brands are adopting innovative marketing strategies to engage consumers, such as Meituan's collaboration with top liquor companies to ensure product authenticity in instant retail [8] - Qingdao Beer is enhancing its brand connection with consumers through cultural events and sponsorships, such as the National Fan Conference [9] - Wuliangye is promoting its internationalization efforts through cultural exchanges and themed events at global exhibitions [10] - The rise of live-streaming sales, particularly among younger entrepreneurs, is significantly impacting the liquor sales landscape [4][12] - Brands like Niulanshan are leveraging emotional marketing strategies to resonate with consumers, enhancing brand loyalty [12] Consumer Trends - Over 70% of consumers prefer classic liquor products, indicating a return to value-driven purchasing during the holiday seasons [7] - The trend towards rational consumption is evident as consumers prioritize quality and value in their purchasing decisions [7] - The focus on health and lower alcohol content is becoming increasingly important among consumers, particularly in the context of new product launches [21]