Cathie Wood Thinks Tesla Will Hit $2,600 a Share. Here's Why $26 Is More Likely

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant challenges, including declining sales, political controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk, and increased competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, which may impact its stock performance and future growth potential [1][5][21]. Group 1: Sales and Market Performance - Tesla's sales in Europe have dramatically declined, with registrations down 42.6% in the first two months of the year, capturing only 1.8% of the total auto market and 10.3% of the battery electric vehicle market [7]. - The company's vehicle sales in 2024 have decreased for the first time ever, with total revenue rising just 1% and automotive revenue down 6% [13]. - The Cybertruck, Tesla's only new vehicle model in five years, has faced multiple recalls, with nearly all 46,000 units on the road affected, raising safety concerns and indicating underperformance against initial expectations of over 1 million reservations [15][16]. Group 2: Political and Brand Challenges - Musk's political activities, including his alliance with Donald Trump and involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), have led to a backlash among consumers, resulting in vandalism at Tesla dealerships and a decline in brand loyalty [2][9][10]. - The brand's association with Musk's political stance has alienated some existing Tesla owners, prompting calls for Musk to step down as CEO from even the company's staunchest supporters [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has set an ambitious price target of $2,600 per share for Tesla in five years, attributing much of this potential to the anticipated success of robotaxis, which she believes will account for 90% of the company's value [4]. - Despite the optimistic outlook from some investors, Tesla's current valuation appears high, trading at a triple-digit price-to-earnings ratio while facing a potential economic downturn and increased competition in the EV market [19][20]. - The upcoming first-quarter delivery report on April 2 will be critical for assessing Tesla's prospects, as weak results could trigger a downward spiral for the stock amid a combination of political controversy, aging product lineup, and rising competition [21].