Where Will Eli Lilly Be in 1 Year?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly has experienced significant growth in 2024, with sales increasing by 32% to over $45 billion, driven by its GLP-1 agonist products, Mounjaro and Zepbound [1][2] - The GLP-1 agonist market is projected to reach annual sales of$150 billion by 2030, indicating a substantial opportunity for Eli Lilly to expand its market share [3] - Eli Lilly currently holds approximately 34% of the GLP-1 agonist market, competing primarily with Novo Nordisk [4] Market Dynamics - Eli Lilly is developing an oral GLP-1 agonist, orforglipron, which could provide a competitive edge if approved, as oral medications are generally more convenient than injections [5][6] - The total sales from Mounjaro and Zepbound were slightly under $16.5 billion in 2024, suggesting potential for significant growth in the expanding market [7] Valuation and Stock Performance - The stock has plateaued since July 2024, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 130 to about 70, reflecting a cooling in stock performance [8] - The current PEG ratio of approximately 2.5 indicates that the stock is at a maximum valuation for high-quality stocks, with a preference for lower entry points [9] Future Outlook - The upcoming trial data for orforglipron will be crucial for Eli Lilly's stock performance over the next year, as it could be the first company to market an oral GLP-1 agonist [11] - The market's expectations for positive trial results are reflected in the stock's current valuation, which may limit short-term upside potential [12] - There is a risk of significant declines if orforglipron does not perform well in trials, as seen with Novo Nordisk's recent stock performance [13]