美国“对等关税”，正式落地

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% minimum baseline tariff on trade partners, which is expected to cause significant international market turbulence and potentially accelerate global economic recession [1][7]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The new tariffs will take effect on April 5, with a 10% tariff applied to all trade partners, and higher tariffs for certain partners [1]. - There were significant internal disagreements within the U.S. government regarding the specifics of the tariff implementation, including exemptions for "strategic allies" and targeted industries [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. Labor Department estimates that the new tariffs could raise the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 2.3 percentage points, counteracting the effects of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7]. - Reuters predicts that the Federal Reserve may need to urgently cut interest rates by 50 basis points in June to address inflationary pressures caused by the tariffs [8]. - Bloomberg analysis indicates that the tariffs could increase global supply chain costs by 40%, forcing multinational companies to restructure their production networks [9]. Group 3: Trade Fairness and Multilateralism - The U.S. claims that the "reciprocal tariffs" aim to reduce trade deficits and address unfair trade practices, but analysts argue that this approach is rooted in a zero-sum game mentality and promotes protectionism [10][12]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) data shows that developing countries face higher average tariffs from the U.S. compared to its own rates, suggesting that the "reciprocal" approach may hinder industrial development in these nations [13]. - The unilateral nature of the U.S. tariff policy undermines the multilateral trading system and the core principles of the WTO, potentially leading to a breakdown in global trade cooperation [14].