CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 新浪财经·2025-04-03 00:41Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the year 2024, primarily due to ongoing pressure in the Hainan offshore duty-free sales market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, down 16% year-on-year (yoy), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36% yoy [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.453 billion yuan, a decrease of 20% yoy, with a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 77% yoy [1]. - The total duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for 2024 was 30.9 billion yuan, down 29% yoy, with actual shopping visitors at 5.683 million, down 16% yoy, and an average spending per visitor of 5,444 yuan, down 16% yoy [1]. Segment Analysis - Duty-free product sales in 2024 amounted to 38.665 billion yuan, down 13% yoy, with a gross margin of 39.5%, unchanged from the previous year [1]. - Taxable product sales generated revenue of 17.095 billion yuan, down 23% yoy, with a gross margin of 13.45%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points yoy [1]. Subsidiary Performance - Sanya's duty-free stores generated revenue of 20.418 billion yuan, down 28% yoy, with a net profit of 367 million yuan, down 86% yoy, and a net profit margin of 1.8%, down 7.5 percentage points yoy [2]. - The Shanghai subsidiary achieved revenue of 16.035 billion yuan, down 10% yoy, with a net profit of 513 million yuan, up 100% yoy, and a net profit margin of 3.2%, up 1.8 percentage points yoy [2]. - Haikou International Duty-Free City reported revenue of 5.574 billion yuan, down 18% yoy, with a net loss of 176 million yuan [2]. - Hainan Duty-Free Company generated revenue of 3.554 billion yuan, down 28% yoy, with a net profit of 58 million yuan, down 71% yoy, and a net profit margin of 1.6%, down 2.4 percentage points yoy [2]. Future Outlook - In 2024, the company plans to consolidate its advantages in port channels, having won the operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free projects, leading to significant growth in domestic duty-free store sales [2]. - The company aims to optimize its city store layout, having won bids for new duty-free store projects in six cities including Shenzhen and Guangzhou [2]. - Expansion of overseas business is planned, with openings at Changi Airport in Singapore, Hong Kong International Airport, and other locations [2]. - The company will explore taxable business development, signing leasing agreements for taxable operations at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport and Harbin Taiping Airport [2]. Market Trends - In January and February 2025, Hainan's duty-free shopping reached 8.41 billion yuan, down 13% yoy, with actual shopping visitors at 1.097 million, down 29% yoy [3]. - The average spending per visitor in January and February was 6,760 yuan and 8,315 yuan, respectively, showing increases of 16% and 25% yoy [3]. - The company plans to deepen its market presence in Hainan and expand its domestic and overseas store layouts, aiming for significant growth in the coming years [3]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 61.6 billion yuan, 67.1 billion yuan, and 73.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9% each year [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.9 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 16%, 12%, and 14% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 23, and 20 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].