华峰化学(002064)：静待氨纶筑底回暖 一体化布局再强化

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 26.93 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [1] - In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 6.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1%, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 58.6% [1] - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to the narrowing price spread of spandex and significant asset impairment losses at year-end [1] Group 2 - The price spreads for spandex and adipic acid have been under pressure due to oversupply and intensified competition, with spandex price spread showing a decrease of 258 yuan and 723 yuan respectively, while adipic acid price spread showed a decrease of 769 yuan and an increase of 191 yuan [1] - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is expected to maintain steady expansion at the industry bottom due to its cost advantages, potentially leading to greater profit elasticity in the next economic cycle [1] - The company is reinforcing its integrated layout with a 1.1 million-ton natural gas integration project and a 240,000-ton PTMEG project, which is expected to enhance its cost competitiveness in spandex production [1] Group 3 - The company has adjusted its forecasts for spandex and adipic acid production, sales, prices, and unit gross margins based on Q4 performance and recent industry changes [2] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.46, 0.53, and 0.58 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.60 and 0.68 yuan for 2025-2026 [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 9.20 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio of comparable companies for 2025, while maintaining a buy rating [2]