药明康德(603259)2024年年报点评:收入利润稳步提升 在手订单维持高增

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 39.241 billion yuan (-2.73%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.450 billion yuan (-1.63%) [1] - Excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects, revenue growth was 5.2%, with an adjusted Non-IFRS net profit margin reaching a historical high of 27.0% [2] Financial Performance - For 2024, WuXi Chemistry achieved a revenue of 29.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% after excluding COVID-19 projects, and an adjusted Non-IFRS gross margin of 46.4% (+1.2 percentage points) [2] - The small molecule D&M business generated a revenue of 17.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% after excluding COVID-19 projects [2] - TIDES business revenue was 5.8 billion yuan (+70.1%), with an increase in peptide solid-phase synthesis reactor volume to 41,000L, expected to exceed 100,000L by the end of 2025 [2] - WuXi Testing business reported a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan (-4.8%) and an adjusted Non-IFRS gross margin of 33.3% (-5.9 percentage points) [2] - Laboratory analysis and testing revenue was 3.86 billion yuan (-8.0%), while clinical CRO & SMO business revenue was 1.81 billion yuan (+2.8%), with SMO revenue growing by 15.4% [2] Order Backlog and Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had a backlog of 49.31 billion yuan (+47.0%), compared to 43.82 billion yuan (+35.2%) at the end of September 2024, indicating strong growth in backlog [4] - The company is advancing the construction of its Middleton facility in the U.S., expected to be operational by the end of 2026, and has commenced construction of a new R&D and production base in Singapore, with phase one expected to be operational by 2027 [4] - Capital expenditure is projected to reach 7-8 billion yuan in 2025, up from 4.003 billion yuan in 2024 [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to return to double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with a projected year-on-year growth of 10%-15%, reaching a total revenue of 41.5-43 billion yuan [4] - With the gradual release of new capacity, operational efficiency is expected to improve, and the adjusted Non-IFRS net profit margin is anticipated to further increase [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 42.706 billion yuan, 48.355 billion yuan, and 55.076 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8.8%, 13.2%, and 13.9% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 10.861 billion yuan, 12.293 billion yuan, and 14.122 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.9%, 13.2%, and 14.9% respectively [5] - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its leading position in integrated drug development services and the potential for recovery in its core Chemistry business [5]