国金证券：给予金钼股份买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Company performance meets expectations with a stable dividend policy, indicating resilience despite a slight decline in net profit [1][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.571 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.68%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.983 billion, a decrease of 3.76% [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.473 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.89% but a year-on-year increase of 29.68%; net profit for the same period was 788 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.49% and a year-on-year increase of 3.32% [1] Margin and Cost Structure - Q4 2024 molybdenum concentrate price decreased by 0.70% quarter-on-quarter but increased by 18.27% year-on-year to 3,676 per ton; the gross margin improved due to increased sales of self-produced ore [2] - The company maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses in Q4 2024 increasing by 93.83% quarter-on-quarter to 157 million, representing 4.52% of revenue [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 per 10 shares, totaling 1.29 billion, with a payout ratio of 43%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year; the dividend yield is estimated at 3.98% [3] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the rising molybdenum prices, expecting improved performance due to industry supply optimization and cost reductions; the current stable operation of its mines positions the company to benefit from price increases [3] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.3 billion, 15.6 billion, and 18.3 billion, with net profits expected to be 3.2 billion, 3.5 billion, and 3.8 billion respectively; corresponding EPS estimates are 0.98, 1.07, and 1.19, with PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [4]