Jinduicheng Molybdenum (SH:601958) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-03 06:28Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 13.571 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.76% to 2.983 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.473 billion yuan, which is a slight decrease of 0.89% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 29.68% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 788 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.49% and a year-on-year increase of 3.32% [1] - The Q4 2024 molybdenum concentrate price was 3,676 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.70% but a year-on-year increase of 18.27% [2] Operational Insights - The fluctuation in gross margin may be attributed to changes in the proportion of self-produced ore, with an increase in self-produced ore sales contributing to improved profitability in Q4 [2] - The company plans to enhance its downstream layout, with production of molybdenum powder and molybdenum plate increasing by 12% and 44% respectively, and production of gold-molybdenum wire increasing by 29% in 2024 [2] - R&D expenses significantly increased in Q4 2024, rising by 93.83% to 157 million yuan, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and development [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.29 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 43%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Despite a decline in net profit, the dividend amount remains unchanged, reflecting a commitment to high dividend distribution [3] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the rising molybdenum prices, with expectations of improved profitability as the steel industry stabilizes and supply chain dynamics evolve [3] - The anticipated recovery in production of 316/duplex stainless steel is expected to alleviate the current price stagnation in molybdenum, providing further upside potential for the company [3] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 14.3 billion, 15.6 billion, and 18.3 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.2 billion, 3.5 billion, and 3.8 billion yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.98, 1.07, and 1.19 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [4]