Western Mining(601168) 和讯网·2025-04-03 06:35Core Viewpoint - The market for used lead-acid batteries is facing a shortage of supply, leading to a potential decrease in the arrival volume for recycling lead smelting companies as recyclers plan to enter the Qingming Festival holiday early [1] Group 1: Lead Market Analysis - The first quarter production of copper, lead, and zinc by Western Mining Group increased by 13%, 31%, and 16% year-on-year respectively [1] - The smelting units saw a significant rise in production, with copper and zinc smelting increasing by 57% and 16% respectively, while lead production doubled before the completion of a 200,000-ton lead smelting upgrade project [1] - The average price of lead ingots dropped by 0.29% compared to the previous day, with the main lead futures contract also closing down by 0.29% [1] - The production of primary lead is expected to increase significantly in March, but some smelting plants in Henan will undergo maintenance in April, potentially reducing primary lead output [1] - The recovery of raw material supply has led to an increase in the operating rates of recycling lead companies, reaching a one-and-a-half-year high, although March is a low season for lead-acid battery scrapping, limiting the collection volume [1] - Overall, the support for high lead prices appears insufficient, with previous long positions gradually taking profits, leading to a price correction, while the short-term downside potential is limited, focusing on the support level of 17,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Zinc Market Analysis - The average price of zinc ingots fell by 0.68% compared to the previous day, with the main zinc futures contract closing down by 1.00% [1] - The zinc ingot premiums in Shanghai increased by 40 yuan/ton, while those in Tianjin decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, they rose by 15 yuan/ton [1] - The raw material inventory at smelting plants is sufficient, and the processing fees for zinc ore are on the rise, with some import processing fees adjusted to 60 USD/dry ton, indicating an improvement in the tight supply of zinc concentrate [1] - The production enthusiasm and profit margins for smelting plants are improving, leading to a clear trend of increased output [1] - Demand from downstream sectors has slightly decreased, with some medium-sized galvanizing enterprises halting operations for maintenance, although production is expected to resume in early April [1] - Overall, the continuous rise in processing costs has weakened the cost support for the zinc market, while the supply side shows a strong trend of increased output, focusing on the support level of 22,000 yuan/ton [1]