佛燃能源(002911)：供应链大幅创收 业绩稳健分红提升

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.589 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, primarily driven by a revenue increment of 7.198 billion yuan from the supply chain [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.853 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.0% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 0.808 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [1] - Financial expenses and income tax decreased by 1.02 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, contributing to profit growth [1] - The return on equity (ROE) increased to 17.4%, with a net operating cash flow of 1.75 billion yuan and an investment cash flow of -0.806 billion yuan [1] - The dividend payout ratio was raised from 70% to 73%, corresponding to a current dividend yield of approximately 4.3% [1] Supply Chain and Natural Gas Business - The natural gas supply volume for 2024 was 4.907 billion cubic meters, up 2.5% year-on-year, while sales volume decreased by 1.5% to 4.499 billion cubic meters [2] - The unit price and unit cost of natural gas decreased by 5.18% and 5.20% year-on-year respectively, leading to a slight decline in gross margin but remaining relatively stable [2] - The supply chain business accounted for 50% of total revenue, with a significant contribution from energy infrastructure and resource advantages [2] - The supply chain business achieved a revenue of 15.848 billion yuan in 2024, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of 83.2% [2] - The company is actively expanding into hydrogen, thermal energy, photovoltaic, and energy storage sectors, contributing to profit growth [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company anticipates potential performance compensation payments in 2025, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 0.96 billion yuan, 0.93 billion yuan, and 1.00 billion yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [3] - The latest price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are estimated at 15.4, 15.9, and 14.8 times for the years 2025-2027 [3] - Based on comparable companies, a target PE of 17 times for 2025 suggests a reasonable value of 12.63 yuan per share, leading to a "buy" rating [3]