证券研究报告 制造业天然气需求分化重塑城燃定位 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 专题研究 制造业天然气需求结构性分化，城燃公司转型突围机遇凸显 我们预测 2026-2028 年中国制造业天然气需求将保持温和增长（年均增速 2%），但结构性分化显著：新兴制造业、汽车制造等领域需求持续扩容（年 均增速最高 7.8%），传统高耗能行业需求逐步收缩（年均降幅 2.8%-3.1%）。 这一变化推动城燃行业从"资源分销"向"综合能源服务"转型，客户结构 优化、增值服务拓展与顺价效率提升构成核心机遇，同时替代能源竞争与区 域博弈加剧行业分化，具备转型能力的企业将充分享受结构性红利。投资主 线聚焦转型能力与结构红利：1）全国性城燃龙头（昆仑能源、中国燃气）， 依托跨区域资源与管网优势捕捉新兴需求；2）区域龙头（深圳燃气、佛燃 能源），深耕本地新兴产业集群，绑定零碳园区建设；3）能源服务平台型 企业（新奥股份），凭借 LNG 资源优势对接大型新兴制造业项目。 需求端：结构性分化成核心主线 根据中国能源统计年鉴数据，2022 年制造业天然气消费量 1550 亿方，占 终端能源消费比 8.56%。2023-20 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001331 | 胜通能源 | 57.14 | 7.69% | 9.99万 | 5.54亿 | | 002259 | 升达林业 | 5.26 | 3.95% | 82.41万 | 4.15亿 | | 000669 | ST金鸡 | 3.10 | 2.31% | 13.57万 | 4131.82万 | | 002911 | 佛燃能源 | 14.07 | -0.42% | 12.78万 | 1.78亿 | | 603080 | 新疆火炬 | 24.79 | -0.52% | 3.17万 | 7807.59万 | | 605090 | 九丰能源 | 49.65 | -0.68% | 22.81万 | 11.37亿 | | 002700 | 万憬能源 | 7.17 | -0.83% | 5.78万 | 4118.04万 | | 603706 | 东方环宇 | 20.91 | -0.90% | 1.61万 | 3341.98万 | | 300435 | 中泰 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The transition towards cleaner electricity generation is accelerating, highlighting the value of sector dividends [1] - The overall electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to grow by 5.0%, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents [3][15] - The generation capacity is shifting towards wind and solar, with these sources contributing 90.1% of the total generation increase in 2025 [3][15] - The annual long-term electricity prices are stabilizing, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics in 2026 [3][15] - Investment opportunities are emerging in thermal and hydropower sectors, emphasizing the defensive attributes of the sector [3][15] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.37 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [15] - The contribution from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents is projected to rise, accounting for 50.2% of the total increase in electricity consumption by 2025 [3][15] - The growth rates for different sectors in 2025 are as follows: primary industry +9.9%, secondary industry +3.7%, tertiary industry +8.2%, and urban-rural residents +6.3% [15][27] Generation Capacity - The total installed capacity of wind and solar is expected to increase by 360 GW, while the share of thermal power is projected to decrease to 40% [3][15] - In 2025, the generation increase from wind and solar is expected to dominate, with a significant contribution to the overall power generation structure [3][15] Electricity Pricing - The report indicates a downward trend in electricity prices in several provinces, with expectations for stabilization as the market matures [3][15] - The market share of electricity traded through market mechanisms is projected to reach 64.0% in 2025, with a notable increase in green electricity transactions [3][15] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong dividend yields and market management strategies, including Huaneng International Power and Huadian International Power [3][15] - There are also opportunities in hydropower, particularly for companies like Yangtze Power and Guigang Power, which are expected to see profit growth in the coming quarters [3][15]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|燃气Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 佛燃能源（002911.SZ） 25 年业绩高增 17%，高分红与成长兼具 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_ 单位Finance] :人民币亿元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 255.4 | 315.9 | 337.5 | 365.1 | 381.6 | | 增长率（ % ） | 35.0% | 23.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 4.5% | | EBITDA | 16.6 | 16.2 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.7 | | 归母净利润 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 11.5 | | 增长率（ ） % | 28.9% | 1.0% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 5.5% | | EPS（元/股） | 0.86 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.84 | 0.89 ...

东吴证券研报指出，佛燃能源业务多元发展业绩超预期，保证股东回报。公司2025年实现归母净利润 10.01亿元，同比增长17.3%；2025Q4归母净利润5.10亿元，同比增长30.6%，超出我们预期。2025-2027 年分红比例不低于65%，保证股东回报。公司秉持"能源+科技+供应链"战略，在深耕城市天然气业务的 同时，积极推进石油化工产品、氢能、热能、光伏和储能等能源业务，持续开展科技研发与装备制造业 务、供应链业务以及其它延伸业务。考虑到2025Q4气量超预期、能源化工业务保持高速增长，上调 2025-2027年公司归母净利润至10.01/10.70/11.17亿元（原值8.72/9.22/9.76亿元），公司天然气业务稳定 发展，新能源、供应链、延伸、科技研发与装备制造业务多点开花，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing fluctuations, with funds entering the market at lower prices, as evidenced by the net subscription of 23 million units for the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) [1] - A cold wave in the U.S. has led to a significant increase in natural gas prices [1] - From 2022 to 2025, 67% (195 cities) of cities at the prefecture level and above in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [1] Group 2 - The price difference for leading city gas companies in 2024 is projected to be between 0.53 and 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, with a reasonable distribution fee expected to exceed 0.6 yuan per cubic meter, indicating a potential 10% recovery space [1] - Cost optimization for city gas companies is expected due to relaxed supply conditions, and the pricing mechanism is being refined while demand is anticipated to increase [1] - There is a focus on companies with quality long-term contracts, flexible scheduling, and long-term cost advantages, as well as the importance of energy self-sufficiency due to increased uncertainty in U.S. gas imports [1] Group 3 - As of January 23, 2026, the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas leading at a 3.29% increase, followed by Fuan Energy at 2.73% and Hupoo Co. at 1.96% [1] - The latest price for the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) is 1.29 yuan, which closely tracks the National Oil and Gas Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) as of December 31, 2025, include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2]

经查询，截至本公告日，公司不是失信责任主体。 近日，公司完成了2026年度第一期中期票据（以下简称"本期债券"）的发行，本次发行规模为15亿元人 民币，该募集资金已于2026年1月22日到账。发行结果如下： ■ 注：本次注册发行的中期票据为永续中期票据，实际兑付日以公司后续公告为准。 本期债券发行的相关文件详见上海清算所网（www.shclearing.com.cn）和中国货币网 （www.chinamoney.com.cn）。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 佛燃能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年3月25日召开的第六届董事会第五次会议、 2024年4月16日召开的2023年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于申请发行债务融资工具的议案》，同意 公司向中国银行间市场交易商协会（以下简称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过人民币50亿元（含50 亿元）的债务融资工具。具体内容详见公司分别于2024年3月27日、2024年4月17日刊登在《中国证券 报》《证券时报》《证券日报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.co ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by diversified business development and a commitment to shareholder returns [7] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 33.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.85% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.77 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 17.59 [1] - The company reported a significant increase in natural gas supply in Q4 2025, with a volume of 1.407 billion cubic meters, up 38.8% year-on-year [7] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2025 is projected to be 1.955 billion yuan, an increase of 11.44% year-on-year [7] Business Strategy Summary - The company is pursuing a strategy of "Energy + Technology + Supply Chain," focusing on the development of natural gas, petrochemical products, hydrogen energy, thermal energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage [7] - The company is actively expanding its energy chemical business, which has shown a year-on-year growth of 20.97% [7]

佛燃能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年3月25日召开的 第六届董事会第五次会议、2024年4月16日召开的2023年年度股东大会，审议通 过了《关于申请发行债务融资工具的议案》，同意公司向中国银行间市场交易商 协会（以下简称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过人民币50亿元（含50亿元） 的债务融资工具。具体内容详见公司分别于2024年3月27日、2024年4月17日刊登 在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《证券日报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）上的《第六届董事会第五次会议决议公告》（公 告编号：2024-014）、《关于申请发行债务融资工具的公告》（公告编号：2024-020） 和《2023年年度股东大会决议公告》（公告编号：2024-031）。 证券代码：002911 证券简称：佛燃能源 公告编号：2026-008 佛燃能源集团股份有限公司 2026 年度第一期中期票据发行情况公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 | 主承销商 | 兴业银行股份有限公司 | | --- | --- | ...

佛燃能源公告称，公司曾获批向交易商协会申请注册发行不超50亿元债务融资工具，注册额度2年内有 效。近日，公司完成2026年度第一期中期票据发行，规模15亿元，募集资金于2026年1月22日到账。该 票据简称"26佛燃能源MTN001"，期限3+N年，票面利率2.14%，主承销商为兴业银行，联席主承销商为 招商银行。 ...