[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 火电业绩表现出色，容量电价稳定盈利 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 公用事业 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭鹏 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | 021-38003655 | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郝兆升 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524070001 | | 0755-82557403 | | haozhaosheng@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，郝兆升并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | DocRe ...

佛燃能源涨0.69%，报14.69元/股，股价再创新高，总市值突破190.73亿元，成交额达876.11万元。（AI 生成） ...

格隆汇2月4日丨佛燃能源(002911.SZ)涨1.47%，报14.470元，股价创历史新高，总市值187.88亿元。 ...

证券日报网讯2月3日，佛燃能源（002911）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月30日， 公司的股东人数为1.7万余户。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utilities and gas distribution sectors [5] Core Insights - The report predicts a moderate growth in China's manufacturing natural gas demand from 2026 to 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. The demand will be characterized by significant structural differentiation, with emerging manufacturing sectors and automotive manufacturing showing the highest growth rates, while traditional high-energy-consuming industries will see a decline [10][20] - The transformation of the city gas industry from "resource distribution" to "comprehensive energy services" is highlighted as a key opportunity, driven by the optimization of customer structure, expansion of value-added services, and improved pricing efficiency [24][25] Summary by Sections Demand Side: Structural Differentiation as the Core Theme - In 2022, the manufacturing sector's natural gas consumption was 155 billion cubic meters, accounting for 8.56% of total energy consumption. The demand is expected to experience a "slow climb - deceleration - stabilization" process from 2023 to 2025, with traditional industries facing pressure while emerging industries continue to grow [2][10] - The report forecasts that from 2026 to 2028, the main sources of growth will be emerging manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, with an average annual growth rate of 4.8%, and automotive manufacturing, particularly in new energy vehicles, with a growth rate of 7.8% [21][22] City Gas Industry: Three Opportunities Against Three Challenges - The recovery of manufacturing natural gas demand will be a critical juncture for the city gas industry to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement." This shift is expected to alleviate short-term profit pressures and support business structure reconstruction and core competitiveness enhancement [3][11] - Opportunities include an increase in high-value customers from emerging manufacturing sectors, which are expected to improve gas sales gross margins by 2-3 percentage points by 2028. Challenges include the loss of traditional customer demand, competition from alternative energy sources, and intensified regional competition [3][11] Differentiation from Market Views - The report emphasizes the quantification of demand differentiation trends across various sectors, highlighting the dual drivers of "policy support + industrial expansion" rather than a singular focus on environmental pressures. It also clarifies the boundaries and pace of alternative energy impacts on natural gas demand, indicating that the substitution effect from emerging industries is relatively weak [4][14] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on capturing structural dividends and realizing transformation capabilities, with a particular emphasis on three types of companies: national city gas leaders (Kunlun Energy, China Gas), regional leaders (Shenzhen Gas, Fuan Energy), and energy service platform companies (Xinao Gas) [12][24]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001331 | 胜通能源 | 57.14 | 7.69% | 9.99万 | 5.54亿 | | 002259 | 升达林业 | 5.26 | 3.95% | 82.41万 | 4.15亿 | | 000669 | ST金鸡 | 3.10 | 2.31% | 13.57万 | 4131.82万 | | 002911 | 佛燃能源 | 14.07 | -0.42% | 12.78万 | 1.78亿 | | 603080 | 新疆火炬 | 24.79 | -0.52% | 3.17万 | 7807.59万 | | 605090 | 九丰能源 | 49.65 | -0.68% | 22.81万 | 11.37亿 | | 002700 | 万憬能源 | 7.17 | -0.83% | 5.78万 | 4118.04万 | | 603706 | 东方环宇 | 20.91 | -0.90% | 1.61万 | 3341.98万 | | 300435 | 中泰 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The transition towards cleaner electricity generation is accelerating, highlighting the value of sector dividends [1] - The overall electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to grow by 5.0%, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents [3][15] - The generation capacity is shifting towards wind and solar, with these sources contributing 90.1% of the total generation increase in 2025 [3][15] - The annual long-term electricity prices are stabilizing, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics in 2026 [3][15] - Investment opportunities are emerging in thermal and hydropower sectors, emphasizing the defensive attributes of the sector [3][15] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.37 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [15] - The contribution from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents is projected to rise, accounting for 50.2% of the total increase in electricity consumption by 2025 [3][15] - The growth rates for different sectors in 2025 are as follows: primary industry +9.9%, secondary industry +3.7%, tertiary industry +8.2%, and urban-rural residents +6.3% [15][27] Generation Capacity - The total installed capacity of wind and solar is expected to increase by 360 GW, while the share of thermal power is projected to decrease to 40% [3][15] - In 2025, the generation increase from wind and solar is expected to dominate, with a significant contribution to the overall power generation structure [3][15] Electricity Pricing - The report indicates a downward trend in electricity prices in several provinces, with expectations for stabilization as the market matures [3][15] - The market share of electricity traded through market mechanisms is projected to reach 64.0% in 2025, with a notable increase in green electricity transactions [3][15] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong dividend yields and market management strategies, including Huaneng International Power and Huadian International Power [3][15] - There are also opportunities in hydropower, particularly for companies like Yangtze Power and Guigang Power, which are expected to see profit growth in the coming quarters [3][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with a total revenue forecast of 33.75 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.85% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its green methanol production capacity, which is expected to enhance both valuation and earnings flexibility [7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 1.955 billion RMB for 2025, representing an 11.44% increase year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 25.54 billion RMB - 2024A: 31.59 billion RMB - 2025E: 33.75 billion RMB (growth rate of 6.9%) - 2026E: 36.51 billion RMB (growth rate of 8.2%) - 2027E: 38.16 billion RMB (growth rate of 4.5%) [2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 840 million RMB - 2024A: 850 million RMB - 2025E: 1 billion RMB (growth rate of 17.3%) - 2026E: 1.09 billion RMB (growth rate of 8.9%) - 2027E: 1.15 billion RMB (growth rate of 5.5%) [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.86 RMB - 2024A: 0.66 RMB - 2025E: 0.77 RMB - 2026E: 0.84 RMB - 2027E: 0.89 RMB [2] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 17.6, with a target price of 15.42 RMB per share based on a 20x P/E valuation [7].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Fuan Energy's diversified business development has exceeded expectations, ensuring shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.001 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - In Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 510 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, surpassing previous expectations [1] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1.001 billion, 1.070 billion, and 1.117 billion yuan respectively, from the original estimates of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan [1] Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% for the years 2025-2027, ensuring returns for shareholders [1] Business Strategy - The company adheres to an "Energy + Technology + Supply Chain" strategy, focusing on urban natural gas operations while actively advancing in petrochemical products, hydrogen energy, thermal energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage [1] - Continuous efforts are being made in technology research and development, equipment manufacturing, supply chain operations, and other extended businesses [1] Market Outlook - The natural gas business is expected to develop steadily, while new energy, supply chain, extended, and technology R&D and manufacturing businesses are flourishing [1] - The rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing fluctuations, with funds entering the market at lower prices, as evidenced by the net subscription of 23 million units for the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) [1] - A cold wave in the U.S. has led to a significant increase in natural gas prices [1] - From 2022 to 2025, 67% (195 cities) of cities at the prefecture level and above in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [1] Group 2 - The price difference for leading city gas companies in 2024 is projected to be between 0.53 and 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, with a reasonable distribution fee expected to exceed 0.6 yuan per cubic meter, indicating a potential 10% recovery space [1] - Cost optimization for city gas companies is expected due to relaxed supply conditions, and the pricing mechanism is being refined while demand is anticipated to increase [1] - There is a focus on companies with quality long-term contracts, flexible scheduling, and long-term cost advantages, as well as the importance of energy self-sufficiency due to increased uncertainty in U.S. gas imports [1] Group 3 - As of January 23, 2026, the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas leading at a 3.29% increase, followed by Fuan Energy at 2.73% and Hupoo Co. at 1.96% [1] - The latest price for the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) is 1.29 yuan, which closely tracks the National Oil and Gas Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) as of December 31, 2025, include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2]