贵州茅台(600519)：销量增幅超预期 25年合理降速

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing external environmental pressures in 2023-2024, with a reasonable revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, following two years of over 10% sales growth. The focus will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and nurturing consumer groups, presenting opportunities for strong companies to further expand their advantages during industry adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue and net profit of 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, slightly exceeding forecasts [1]. - The company’s sales cash receipts increased by 11.6% to 182.6 billion, while contract liabilities decreased by 32.1% to 9.59 billion [2]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 rose by 38.9% to 92.46 billion, supported by increased sales of acceptance bills [2]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons, with a price increase of 4.6% to 3.14 million per ton, driven by traditional channel price hikes [2]. - Series liquor sales volume grew by 18.5% to 36,920 tons, with a modest price increase of 1.0% to 669,000 per ton, influenced by pricing pressures from the 1935 product line [2]. - The wholesale channel revenue rose by 19.7% to 95.77 billion, while direct sales revenue increased by 11.3% to 74.84 billion, despite a decline in direct sales unit price [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 92.0%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor gross margins at 94.1% and 79.9% respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased marginally by 0.12 percentage points to 49.5% [3]. - Increased sales expenses were offset by reduced management costs, leading to a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company plans to increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor in 2025, with expectations for kilogram packaging to drive further price increases [4]. - The company maintains a target valuation of 25 times PE, with a target price of 1,870 yuan, supported by a dividend yield of over 3.5% [4].