关税“大棒”如何影响市场？从宏观到个股，最全大行解读来了！（附行业&标的）

Global Macro - Goldman Sachs reports that the announced tariff rate has a weighted average of 18.3%, with an actual increase of 12.6 percentage points after specific exemptions are deducted, indicating that the overall tariff increase may exceed the previously expected 15 percentage points due to subsequent countermeasures [1] Focus on China - Morgan Stanley highlights that China is one of the countries most impacted by the tariff increases, with effective tariffs rising to 65% following a 34% increase in U.S. tariffs [3][5] - The impact of tariffs on China's economy is expected to be greater than in 2018-2019, with the difficulty of reaching an agreement to lower tariffs being significant [4][5] - The U.S. comprehensive tariffs will also negatively affect global trade, indirectly impacting China [4][5] Industry Impact - JPMorgan assesses that the direct impact of tariffs on Asian companies is relatively small, but certain industries may face indirect effects due to economic slowdown and currency fluctuations [8] - Approximately 14.4% of the Asian region is considered directly affected by U.S. tariffs, primarily driven by the industrial sector, especially export-oriented companies from Taiwan and South Korea [8] - The financial sector, which constitutes 39% of the investment-grade emerging market bond index in Asia, is expected to be less affected by tariffs, providing a buffer for the region [9] Individual Stock Impact - UBS indicates that the recent 34% tariffs on China will likely pressure stock prices until clear stimulus policies are announced, estimating a 3% revenue reduction for MSCI China constituents and a potential 1-2% profit decrease due to tariffs [11][15] - The sectors most at risk from potential profit impacts include machinery, petrochemicals, sportswear OEM, biotech, and tech hardware [15] - A list of companies with significant U.S. revenue exposure has been compiled, with many facing earnings impacts due to the tariffs [12][13]