石头科技(688169)2024年报点评：以利润换份额

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 performance, showing a revenue increase of 38.03% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 3.64% [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.945 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.977 billion yuan [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.938 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.5%, while net profit was 504 million yuan, down 27.0% [1] Sales Performance - Both domestic and international sales exceeded market expectations in Q4 2024 [2] - Domestic sales were boosted by government subsidies, with an estimated year-on-year growth of 90%, particularly in floor cleaning machines (50% growth) and significant triple-digit growth in washing machines [2] - Internationally, revenue from overseas markets grew by over 50%, with Europe and the U.S. showing strong performance [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's strategy of prioritizing revenue growth over profit margins was evident in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 45%, down 12 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Selling expenses increased to 28% of revenue, reflecting higher investments in emerging channels and brand marketing [3] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 10%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by lower-margin products and U.S. tariffs [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its aggressive strategy into 2025, with revenue growth driven by ongoing government subsidies and expansion into new channels [4] - Profitability improvement is anticipated through high-end market expansion and enhanced marketing management, although short-term challenges remain due to low-margin products and tariffs [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to 18.1x and 15.3x P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - The company maintains a target price of 300 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 32.7% from the current stock price [5]