以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者江南春 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 江南春 分众传媒董事长 黑马导师 整个社会都在喊没钱了，为什么这些公司反而年赚百亿？ 日本"失落 30年的秘密" ， 就在这八个行业里面 。 低欲望社会 ， 不等于没机会。 消费分级 ， 需求迁移 ， 才是最大的商业机遇 。 当人们不买房子，不追奢侈品的时候，钱都流向了哪里？ 第一，二 手经济 日本二手奢侈品市场，以 大黑屋 为代表，收入暴涨。 在中国， 红布林 、 胖虎， 同样业务大涨。 买不起爱马仕、 LV ， 但 抢着买二手。 但在日常消费品领域， 闲鱼 日活破亿， 转转 的 GMV 也大幅飙升。 闲置不是垃圾，是流动的黄金。 日本 Inaba 靠猫粮上市，中国乖宝 （ 中宠 ） 股价强劲 。 诚实一口、凯锐思、 疯狂小狗、 伯纳天纯、比瑞吉、 网易严选、 卫仕 等宠物品牌，销量持续攀升。 宠物不仅是主粮零食营养品，以 新瑞鹏 为代表的宠物医院，以 泰 淘气 为 代表 的宠物益生菌 、 保健品 ， 都大幅飙升 。 宠物开支逆势增长， " 毛孩子 " 才是真刚需。 第三 ， 成人护理 日本尤妮佳 ， 靠纸尿裤翻身。 第二 ， 宠物经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the nominal appreciation of the RMB is expected to have limited impact on export recovery and external sales profitability, as leading brands have strong pricing power, overseas production capacity, and effective foreign exchange hedging [8][11] - The report emphasizes that the home appliance sector is likely to benefit from increased foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation, with the sector's valuation and holdings at historical lows, indicating significant upside potential [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Nominal Appreciation and Dollar Price Elasticity - Since Q2 2025, the RMB has appreciated approximately 5% due to the easing of trade tensions and economic recovery expectations, with the CFETS index remaining close to its 3-5 year average [11][12] - The report discusses the impact of exchange rates on export volume and pricing, noting that during appreciation phases, exporters may adjust dollar prices or lower RMB prices to mitigate the effects of appreciation [12][22] 2. Financial Statements: External Sales Profitability and Hedging - External sales gross margins have been under pressure, with historical data showing that external sales margins are generally weaker than domestic sales margins [4][6] - The report indicates that major companies have high foreign exchange hedging ratios, which effectively mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their financials [4][6] 3. Capital: High Foreign Ownership Proportion - The report notes a strong correlation between RMB appreciation and net inflows of foreign capital, with the home appliance sector consistently attracting significant foreign investment [7][8] - The sector's Northbound trading and public fund holdings are at historical lows, suggesting ample room for upward movement [7] 4. Industry Perspective and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that under the expectation of moderate appreciation, the competitive edge of leading companies backed by domestic supply chain advantages and proactive overseas capacity expansion will remain intact [8] - Recommended stocks include high-quality white goods leaders such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as TV leader Hisense Visual and global leaders in robotic vacuum cleaners like Roborock and Ecovacs [8]

中金公司认为，AI应用端的价值重估将是下一阶段市场主线。具备强大用户黏性、占据高频场景 入口的公司，其流量与数据价值将通过AI实现货币化。短期内，企业端（To B）的工具类应用（如代 码生成、设计）及内容生成类应用商业化路径更清晰。长期需警惕模型技术路线快速迭代带来的替代风 险，以及数据安全与行业监管政策可能带来的不确定性。 在AI产业链中，软件行业主要处于中游技术层和下游应用层，扮演着核心技术支撑和应用落地的 关键角色。具体来看，软件行业在中游技术层主要提供AI框架、开发平台和算法模型，这些技术是AI 应用开发的基础。在下游应用层，软件行业通过将AI技术与各行业结合，推动AI应用的落地。 AI应用的落地明显加快。开源AI助手项目Clawdbot爆火，Clawdbot能通过日常通讯软件远程指挥模 型执行本地电脑任务，如管理邮件、控制浏览器或文件、运行脚本等，引发海外开源社区大量讨论。创 业板软件ETF华夏（159256）持仓股中网宿科技、昆仑万维、易华录等个股涨幅居前。人工智能AIETF （515070）持仓股中石头科技、海康威视涨幅超2%。 AI应用催化不断： 1月31日，可灵AI面向全球上线全新的可灵3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [5]. Core Insights - The PPI (Producer Price Index) upcycle presents opportunities for mid-to-high-end positioning, with leading companies demonstrating stronger pricing power and higher profit certainty [2][3]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. Leading companies exhibit higher operational efficiency and stability during cost upcycles, making them preferred choices for stable allocations. Recommended stocks include Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated) and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3]. 2. International expansion remains a long-term theme, with potential valuation shifts expected by 2026. Recommended stocks include Stone Technology (688169, buy) and Lek Electric (603355, buy) [3]. Summary by Sections - **PPI Upcycle and Pricing Dynamics**: The report notes that from July 1, 2025, to January 30, 2026, LME copper prices increased by 32%, prompting home appliance brands to raise prices. For instance, Hisense announced a price increase of 5%-10% for its air conditioning products starting February 11, 2026, while Midea announced a cumulative price increase exceeding 6% [7]. - **Sales Impact and Market Concentration**: Price increases have not significantly affected overall sales volumes but have contributed to market concentration. Historical data shows that after previous raw material price hikes, leading companies have successfully increased their market share, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments [7]. - **Mid-to-High-End Market Opportunities**: The report emphasizes that the PPI upcycle is a positive signal for industrial enterprises and economic stabilization. It highlights opportunities in mid-to-high-end segments, where consumer price sensitivity is lower, allowing for better price transmission during commodity upcycles [7].

证券之星消息，2月4日小家电板块较上一交易日上涨0.89%，富佳股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。小家电板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603219 | 富佳股份 | 2920.89万 | 15.20% | -66.00万 | -0.34% | -2854.89万 | -14.85% | | 002242 九阳股份 | | 614.97万 | 6.96% | -180.45万 | -2.04% | -434.51万 | -4.92% | | 603355 | 莱克电气 | 443.34万 | 2.87% | 938.93万 | 6.08% | -1382.27万 | -8.95% | | 6610Z6 | 倍益康 | 327.41万 | 3.22% | -278.24万 | -2.73% | -49.15 ...

国信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，近期，铜等原材料价格上涨引发市场对白电龙头盈利的担 忧，复盘此前原材料上涨周期，原材料成本上涨对毛利率的负面影响逐渐减弱，白电龙头通过结构调 整、费用节省等方式，盈利能力有望穿越周期。据产业在线数据，2月我国白电合计排产量达到2379万 台，较去年同期生产实绩下降22.1%；1-2月合计排产量预计下降5.0%。环比2025Q4排产10%以上的降 幅来看，白电排产表现有所修复。随着国补政策效果持续显现，白电排产有望延续企稳回升的态势。 2025年家电零售额下降4%，小家电表现较好 奥维云网推总数据显示，2025年中国家电市场零售规模8931亿元，同比2024年下滑4.3%；其中空调市 场零售额达2357亿元，同比下降0.4%；冰箱零售额1271亿元，同比下降11.5%；洗衣机零售额达963亿 元，同比下降4.6%；干衣机零售额达145亿元，同比下降10.4%；厨房小家电整体零售额663亿，同比上 涨3.8%；明火炊具零售额达201亿元，同比微增1.6%。2025年我国家电零售规模在2024年国补的较高基 数下有所回落，受国补影响较小的小家电品类增长 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月2日，石头科技发布公告称，2026年1月份，公司未进行回购。截至2026年1月31日， 公司通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易方式已累计回购股份369，036股，占公司总股本的比 例为0.1424%。 ...

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite recent challenges [5][3] - Rising raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [1][17] - The report anticipates that the overall gross margin decline for white goods companies will be less than 2 percentage points due to price adjustments and cost-saving measures [1][17] Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, but the rate of decline is improving compared to previous months [2][24] - The cumulative production decline for January and February is estimated at 5%, showing signs of recovery driven by government subsidy policies [2][24] - The report highlights that the demand for white goods is expected to stabilize and recover as the effects of national subsidy policies continue to manifest [2][24] Retail Market Performance - The retail scale of China's home appliance market is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with small appliances showing relatively better performance [2][31] - Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are experiencing significant declines in retail sales, while kitchen small appliances are expected to see growth [2][31] Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Stone Technology and Bear Electric in the small appliances sector [3][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong overseas growth potential and solid domestic performance, particularly those benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][14] Company Profitability Forecasts - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Smart Home, among others [4][50] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies suggest favorable valuations compared to historical averages, supporting the investment thesis [4][50]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges from rising raw material prices and market competition [1][5][11]. Raw Material Price Impact - Recent increases in copper and aluminum prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers. However, historical analysis shows that the negative impact of raw material cost increases on gross margins has diminished over time. For instance, during previous cycles from 2008 to 2022, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points in 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and only about 2 percentage points in 2020-2022. The current price increases are expected to have a lesser impact, with an anticipated gross margin decline of less than 2 percentage points [1][17][18]. Production and Demand Trends - In January and February 2026, the total production of white goods in China was 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%. However, the cumulative production decline for the first two months is expected to be around 5%. The production performance has shown signs of recovery compared to a more than 10% decline in Q4 2025. The demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [2][24]. Retail Market Performance - The retail market for home appliances in China is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with a total retail scale of 893.1 billion yuan. Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are expected to see declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively, while small kitchen appliances are expected to grow by 3.8% [2][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their performance and market position. For white goods, companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Home, and Hisense Home Appliances are highlighted. In the small appliance sector, Stone Technology, Bear Electric, and New Treasure are recommended. For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are suggested [3][12][50]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating that Midea Group is expected to have an EPS of 5.84 yuan in 2025 and 6.43 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 13 for 2025. Haier Smart Home is projected to have an EPS of 2.27 yuan in 2025 and 2.53 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11 for 2025 [4][50].

从资金流向上来看，当日小家电板块主力资金净流出2287.8万元，游资资金净流入416.44万元，散户资金 净流入1871.36万元。小家电板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，2月2日小家电板块较上一交易日下跌0.35%，倍益康领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于13824.35，下跌2.69%。小家电板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002032 | 苏泊尔 | 44.05 | 2.04% | 4.91万 | | 2.18亿 | | 002005 | ST德豪 | 2.96 | 1.37% | 16.76万 | | 4972.69万 | | 603355 | 莱克电气 | 32.57 | 0.71% | 3.85万 | 1 | 1.25亿 | | 688169 | 石头科技 | 143.00 | 0.27% | - 3.57万 | | 5.15亿 | | 603868 | 飞科申器 | 38.23 | - ...