Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-04-04 07:28Core Viewpoint - Trump's newly announced tariff policy is expected to have a devastating impact on the U.S. technology hardware industry, with companies having limited means to respond [1] Group 1: Impact on Companies - The "reciprocal tariffs" will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 54% on technology hardware products sold to the U.S., severely affecting companies reliant on overseas production [1] - Major companies such as Apple, Dell, HP, Logitech, Sonos, Circut, and GoPro will face significant challenges due to their dependence on overseas manufacturing [2] - Apple has shifted approximately 15% of its iPhone production to India, while all MacBooks shipped to the U.S. are currently produced in Vietnam [2] - Dell and HP have moved their notebook production for the U.S. market to Vietnam and Thailand, respectively, while Sonos assembles nearly all its speakers for the U.S. in Malaysia and Vietnam [2] Group 2: Tariff Costs - The tariffs are projected to impose an additional cost of approximately $51 billion on technology hardware companies like Apple, Dell, and HP, which is equivalent to about 30% of their EBIT [2] - For Apple, the additional tariff cost could reach $33.3 billion, representing 26% of its EBIT for the fiscal year 2025 [2] - Dell and HP may face tariff costs that are nearly equal to their expected net profits for 2025 [2] Group 3: Response Strategies - Companies have limited options to mitigate the impact of the tariffs, as pre-production or stockpiling is nearly impossible [5] - Diversifying supply chains would take too long, and shifting production to countries with more favorable tariffs is contingent on available infrastructure [5] - Consequently, raising prices is seen as the most realistic option, although this could negatively affect demand, with price increases potentially needing to be between 12% and 19% to offset tariff costs [6]