3 Ways the New U.S. Tariffs Might Affect Amazon Stock

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff program has raised concerns about a potential recession, leading to significant market declines and increased demand for safer investments like U.S. Treasury bills [1] Market Impact - The stock market experienced a loss of approximately 3.1 trillion on Thursday, marking its worst day since 2020, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8%. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell an additional 5.9%, resulting in a total two-day loss of 10.5% [2] Amazon's Vulnerability - Amazon's stock has dropped 12.8% since the announcement of tariffs, erasing all gains from the past year. The company is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imported goods, especially in categories like computers, cellphones, and electronics [3][4] - In 2024, Amazon's sales are projected to reach 638 billion, making it the second-largest U.S. company by total sales [4] Sales and Revenue Structure - As of Q4 2024, product-based sales accounted for about 68% of Amazon's total revenue, indicating a significant reliance on product sales over services. Higher tariffs on non-U.S. manufactured products could negatively impact sales if prices rise and consumer spending decreases [5] Competitive Positioning - Amazon has maintained a competitive edge by offering lower prices, averaging about 14% lower than similar retailers during the holiday season. The company has also launched Amazon Haul to facilitate shopping for lower-priced items [6] - Unlike Amazon, Walmart may be better positioned to weather a recession due to its focus on essential grocery items [6] Long-term Strategy - Amazon's strategy involves prioritizing customer retention and market share over immediate profits, allowing it to absorb short-term losses better than smaller retailers [7] International Operations - Amazon operates in approximately 130 international locations, making it susceptible to the impacts of a potential global trade war. However, its established market position may provide some resilience against these challenges [8] Stock Valuation - The recent market decline has resulted in Amazon's stock trading at its lowest P/E ratio in over a decade, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [11] - Historical performance shows that Amazon has previously recovered from significant stock declines, suggesting that current volatility may be viewed as an opportunity to invest [10][12]