当中国即将踏入丙午马年春节之际，大洋彼岸的美股市场却正在经历一场罕见的"寒流"。 标普500指数本周下跌1.4%，为去年11月以来最大跌幅，且在本周五（2月13日）的交易中，超过40只 成分股出现超过3倍标准差的异常波动，这是高盛交易员记忆中的最高水平。从物流、软件到金融、保 险，AI颠覆预期的多米诺骨牌正以摧枯拉朽之势冲击着美股多个板块。一个关键问题随之而来：AI是 否已经不再是美股增长引擎，而是变成了"估值粉碎机"？ 图片来源：视觉中国 标普500指数前一交易日仅15只个股出现异常波动，周五就激增至40只，这很可能不是简单的回调，而 是市场微观结构层面的信心塌方。物流板块成为重灾区，C.H. Robinson作为美国最大的第三方物流与货 运经纪公司之一，其股价波动往往被视为行业风向标，周五其遭遇8倍标准差的暴跌，陷入程序化止损 盘与恐慌性抛售形成的"死亡螺旋"。科技巨头也集体领跌，苹果、亚马逊、微软、Meta成为指数最大拖 累。 尤其触目惊心的是，亚马逊股价九连跌，创下自2006年以来最长连跌纪录，继微软之后也正式跌入技术 性熊市，即从重要高点下跌20%及以上，标志着市场对"AI受益者"的叙事可能彻底反转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's recent stock performance has been underwhelming, with a 8.2% decline over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 16.5% gain, raising questions about its long-term investment potential [2] Group 1: Business Segments and Performance - Amazon operates through three segments: North America, international, and Amazon Web Services (AWS), with the first two contributing 82% of total sales, amounting to $716.9 billion in 2025 [4] - AWS remains the largest profit generator for Amazon, achieving a 14.5% increase in operating income to $45.6 billion [5] - The North America and international segments generated $34.7 billion in operating income, representing 43% of the total [4] Group 2: Competitive Advantage and Market Position - AWS holds a leading market share of 30% as of mid-2025, outperforming Microsoft's Azure at 20% and Alphabet's Google Cloud at 13%, benefiting from the growing demand for data and resources for data centers [8] - The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to further accelerate AWS's growth [8] Group 3: Financial Outlook and Valuation - Following the fourth-quarter earnings release, Amazon's stock price declined due to management's announcement of a significant increase in capital expenditures to $200 billion for the year, up from $131.8 billion in 2025 [9] - Despite the increased spending, management anticipates a substantial return on capital, which is expected to benefit shareholders [10] - Amazon's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 28, down from 40 a year ago, making its valuation more attractive compared to the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 30 [11] Group 4: Investment Considerations - The question remains whether investing in Amazon will yield better returns than an index fund replicating the S&P 500, with the potential for greater gains based on Amazon's valuation and growth prospects [12]

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences across the company [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, representing a major shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the multi-trillion-dollar potential of AI, suggesting a broad consensus on its economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is believed to be redefining work, learning, and creativity, attracting significant interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that may play a crucial role in the AI revolution, with its technology posing a threat to competitors [4] - Prominent figures in technology and investment, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a major technological advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8] Market Trends - The AI ecosystem is expected to reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate globally, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The investment landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with various tech giants like Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft being highlighted, while a smaller company is suggested to have significant growth potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - The $3 trillion market cap club is expected to expand significantly in the coming years, with three companies likely to reach this milestone within three years [1]. Company Summaries Amazon (AMZN) - Currently valued at $2.4 trillion, Amazon needs to achieve an 8% growth rate over the next three years to reach a $3 trillion market cap [4]. - Amazon has consistently grown its revenue above double digits for the past four years, with its cloud computing service, AWS, showing a 24% revenue growth in Q4, indicating strong business performance [10]. - The acceleration of AI spending is expected to further enhance Amazon's growth potential, making it a strong candidate to reach the $3 trillion mark [10]. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - Taiwan Semiconductor has a current market cap of $1.72 trillion and requires a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% to reach $3 trillion in three years [5]. - The company is integral to the AI sector, with expectations of AI chip revenue growing at nearly 60% CAGR, while overall company growth is projected at nearly 25% from 2024 to 2029, surpassing the required growth threshold [11][12]. Broadcom (AVGO) - Broadcom currently has a market cap of $1.47 trillion and needs a CAGR of 27% to achieve a $3 trillion valuation in three years [5]. - The company is focusing on custom AI chips, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth, with plans to double AI segment revenue year over year by Q1 2026 [13]. - Broadcom's growth strategy involves designing chips tailored to specific workloads, which is gaining popularity among AI hyperscalers, positioning the company for rapid growth [13].

北京时间2026年2月13日凌晨，美国股市收盘的钟声敲响，但带来的不是平静，而是一片刺眼的红色。 道琼斯工业指数下跌669.42点，跌幅定格在1.34%，报收于49451.98点。 以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数遭遇了更猛烈的抛售，暴跌469.32点，跌幅高达 2.03%，收于22597.15点。 标普500指数也未能幸免，下跌108.71点，跌幅1.57%，报6832.76点。 这不仅仅是数字的下跌。 整个市场超过4100只股票收跌，上涨的股票寥寥无几。 交易员们盯着屏幕，看着三大指数从开盘的普遍上涨，一步步演变成盘中 跳水，尾盘加速下跌的"高开低走"惨剧。 纳斯达克指数开盘时还上涨了0.38%，但盘中越走越低，最终以大跌收盘。 标普500指数开盘上涨0.40%，却在盘 中经历了两次明显的跳水。 市场的恐慌情绪像病毒一样蔓延。 投资者开始疯狂抛售手中的资产，尤其是那些曾经备受追捧的科技股和成长股。 衡量市场恐慌程度的VIX指数大幅飙 升，显示市场避险情绪急剧升温。 这种抛售不是针对某一家公司，而是席卷了整个市场，从科技巨头到传统行业，几乎无一幸免。 在众多下跌的板块中，有色金属和贵金属板块的崩盘尤为惨烈。 ...

这场风暴的起点，可以精确到北京时间2月13日凌晨。 当时钟的指针划过零点，纽约交易所的电子屏上开始闪现一片刺眼的红色。 道琼斯工业平均指数率先跳水，紧接着，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数像 断了线的风筝一样直线下坠。 截至当天收盘，道指暴跌669.42点，跌幅达到1.34%，报收于49451.98点。 纳斯达克指数的跌幅更为惨烈，全天下跌469.32点，跌幅高达2.03%，收于22597.15点。 标普500指数也未能幸免，下跌108.71点，跌幅1.57%，报6832.76点。 2026年2月13日，星期四，对于全球金融市场而言，这是一个被载入史册的"黑色星期四"。 当中国投资者还在睡梦中时，大洋彼岸的美国华尔街已经上演了一场惊心动魄的资产抛售潮。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | SImain | 白银期货主连 (2603) | 75.770 | -8.150 | -9.7 | | 2 | SILmain | 微白银期货主连(2603) | 75.775 | -8.145 | -9. ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock has entered a technical bear market, marking the second company in the Mag7 group to do so, driven by investor resistance to aggressive AI spending plans [2] Group 1: Amazon's Stock Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $198.79, down over 23% from recent highs, officially entering bear market territory on Thursday [2] - Amazon plans to spend $200 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, the highest among the four major cloud service providers [2] - The total expected capital expenditure in AI by Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet by 2026 is projected to reach $650 billion [2] Group 2: Meta and Microsoft's Market Position - Meta is close to entering a bear market, with a cumulative decline of 19.6% from last year's peak, just 0.4% away from the 20% threshold [2] - Despite exceeding Wall Street expectations for Q4 revenue and earnings, Meta's increased AI spending and pressure on profit margins have undermined investor confidence [2] - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock down 27.8% from recent highs following disappointing Azure cloud business growth [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Recent sell-offs highlight the growing divergence among Mag7 members, with investors shifting away from OpenAI-related stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia towards Alphabet and Broadcom [4] - Alphabet's vertically integrated technology stack has somewhat mitigated concerns over excessive spending, allowing it to avoid the worst impacts of the tech stock sell-off [4] - Increased capital expenditure levels for Amazon may lead to negative free cash flow this year, prompting the company to seek additional capital through debt markets [4] - The next significant catalyst for AI stocks is expected to be Nvidia's earnings report on February 25, which will indicate whether the AI boom is cooling or if Nvidia is successfully capturing billions in investments from its largest clients [4]

中国基金报记者张舟 大家好，今天是周六，一起聚焦海外市场最新收盘表现与本周整体走势。 美东时间2月13日收盘，美国股市涨跌不一，大型科技股下跌，中概股涨跌互现。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数涨0.1%，报49500.93点；标普500指数涨0.05%，报6836.17点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.22%，报22546.67点。 从周度表现看，三大指数集体累跌。其中，纳指累跌2.1%，道指累跌1.23%，标普500指数累跌1.39%。 板块方面，美股大型科技股下挫，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌1.31%。 | 序号 | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 总市值1 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | NVDA | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 182.785 | -4.155 -2.22% | | 44416亿 | | വ | AAPL | 苹果(APPLE) | 255.790 | -5.940 -2.27% | | 37551亿 | | 3 | GOOG | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 306.020 | -3.350 -1.08 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive AI spending persist in the market, leading to significant stock declines among the "Big Seven" tech companies [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Investors are strongly resisting aggressive AI investment plans from tech giants, resulting in a sharp drop in stock prices [1] - Amazon's stock has been on a continuous decline, with Wall Street worried that its large-scale investments may lead to negative free cash flow by 2026, making it the first cloud business giant to experience this [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.10% to 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% to 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% to 22,546.67 points [3] - All three indices recorded weekly declines, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow down 1.2%, and the Nasdaq down 2.1% [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, both below market expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations [3] - Phil Blancato, Chief Market Strategist at Osaic, indicated that this data could pave the way for interest rate cuts and inflation control if the trend continues [3] Sector Performance - Concerns over AI disruption led to market sell-offs, affecting various sectors including software, real estate, trucking, and financial services [6] - Financial stocks such as Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley fell by 10.8% and 4.9%, respectively, while software company Workday dropped 11% and commercial real estate firm CBRE fell 16% [6] - The media sector was also impacted, with Disney down approximately 3% and Netflix down 6% [7] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down 2.21%, Apple down 2.27%, Microsoft down 0.13%, Google down 1.06%, and Amazon down 0.41% [7] - Tesla saw a slight increase of 0.09%, while Oracle rose by 2.34% and Netflix increased by 1.33% [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.10%, with Alibaba down 1.89%, JD.com down 1.38%, and Pinduoduo up 0.06% [7] - NIO remained flat, while Xpeng rose by 1.36% and Li Auto fell by 1.81% [7]