What in the World Happened to Nio?

Core Viewpoint - Nio's fourth quarter results disappointed analysts and investors despite strong vehicle delivery growth, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenue and cautious guidance for the first quarter of 2025 [2][6][7]. Delivery and Revenue Performance - In Q4, Nio delivered a total of 72,689 vehicles, comprising 52,760 from its premium brand and 19,929 from the Onvo brand, marking a 45% increase year-over-year and a 17.5% increase from Q3 2024 [3]. - Total revenue for Q4 increased by 15.2% year-over-year and 5.5% from Q3 2024, indicating that while sales are growing, the competitive pricing environment in China is impacting revenue growth [4]. Margin Analysis - Vehicle margins improved to 13.1% in Q4 from 11.9% in the same quarter last year, suggesting effective cost management despite the need for competitive pricing [5]. Future Guidance and Concerns - Nio expects to deliver approximately 43,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with projected revenue of about 12.9 billion yuan ($1.8 billion), significantly below analyst expectations of 65,000 vehicles and 17.8 billion yuan ($2.45 billion) [7]. - The company is facing challenges with its capital-intensive battery-swap network, which is expected to continue incurring losses [7]. Strategic Outlook - To navigate the ongoing price war in the EV market, Nio will need to implement vehicle refreshes, new launches, and alternative revenue generation strategies without resorting to aggressive price cuts [8]. - Management aims for profitability by Q4 2025, but achieving this may require more than just doubling sales as planned [10].