健友股份(603707)：类似药拾级而上 利拉获批再下一城

Group 1 - The company announced the approval of its liraglutide biosimilar in the U.S. on April 3, marking its second biosimilar approval in the U.S. The biosimilar business is expected to grow, while small molecule exports maintain a high growth rate, and uncertainties in APIs and domestic formulations are gradually clearing up [1] - The new round of U.S. tariffs does not affect drugs, and the company anticipates limited impact from these tariffs on its business [1] - Liraglutide, a GLP-1 analog originally developed by Novo Nordisk, has seen peak sales in the U.S. reach nearly $2.8 billion since its approval in 2010, with a relatively stable competitive landscape as only a few companies have biosimilars approved [1] Group 2 - The formulation business remains the main growth driver for the company, with strong growth in the U.S. market, where approximately 90 products have been approved, and 7 new products are expected to be approved in 2024. The company estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% for overseas formulation revenue from 2025 to 2026 [2] - In the domestic market, the impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing up, with 8 new products expected to be approved in 2024, including potential blockbuster products already validated overseas [2] - The biosimilar business is expected to further enhance the company's growth trajectory, with the acquisition of the adalimumab biosimilar approval and the anticipated approval of other products like albumin-bound paclitaxel [2] Group 3 - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 971 million, 1.136 billion, and 1.443 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments reflecting geopolitical and potential tariff impacts. The expected year-on-year growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are 17% and 27% [3] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.60, 0.70, and 0.89 yuan, respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 31.43x for 2025, leading to a reasonable valuation of 35.704 billion yuan and a target price of 22.10 yuan [3]