国信证券：上市银行业绩边际改善 2025年或迎业绩周期尾声

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the combined revenue of 23 listed banks in 2024 is expected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 1.8%, showing a marginal improvement in performance [1] Group 1: Overall Review - The revenue and net profit growth rates continue to show improvement but remain under pressure [1] - The net interest margin contraction is still the main drag on performance, although the decline has narrowed by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The net interest margin contraction is expected to negatively impact performance by approximately 11.1%, while scale expansion will contribute to performance growth by about 8.7% [2] - Net interest income is projected to decline by approximately 2.3%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points [2] - Fee-based income is expected to negatively impact performance by about 1.1%, while other non-interest income will contribute to performance growth by approximately 2.8% [2] - A decrease in asset impairment losses is anticipated to contribute to performance growth of 2.9% [2] Group 3: Asset Quality Outlook - The non-performing loan generation rate for retail loans is expected to remain high in 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [3] - The new non-performing loan balance in 2024 is primarily expected to come from retail loans, while corporate loans are projected to see a decline in non-performing loans [3] - Economic downturn is leading to decreased repayment capacity, particularly in retail loans, due to insufficient risk screening and post-loan management [3] Group 4: Performance Outlook - For 2025, the revenue growth rate for listed banks is expected to be around -1%, with net profit growth projected at approximately 1% [4] - The net interest margin is expected to contract by about 12 basis points in 2025 [4] - The asset expansion rate is anticipated to slow to around 7.0%, leading to a near-zero decline in net interest income [4] - Retail loan non-performing loan generation is expected to remain high, but banks will continue to release profits by reducing provisions, resulting in a slight positive growth in net profit [4]